Daily iron ore price update (still terrible)

The ferrous market sort of bounced on Friday June 24:

Futures pooped overnight with the wider market rally. News remains dubious:

While “market confidence has been restored to a certain extent”, Sinosteel Futures analysts said the absence of any additional and specific economic stimulus measures from Beijing will limit any price gains for now. In China’s steel production hub, Tangshan city, 56 of the 126 blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, according to Sinosteel, as mills struggled to cope with slumping margins amid weak steel demand and high inventories.

On the ground, conditions remain terrible for both supply and demand according to this week’s Mysteel tracking indexes:

Cement is showing no sign of recovery, hosing off infrastructure hopes:

Excavator sales likewise:

I still think underlying demand gets worse before it gets better:

And there is some breakdown in commodity market correlation suggesting iron ore and coking coal could actually price poor conditions. Here is the Bloomie commodities index versus the metals sub-index:

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