Global recession looming fast

Thursday, 12 May 2022

Global recession is looming fast as the six shocks come together: European war and energy, Chinese property and OMICRON, and US inflation and rates. Goldman’s global FCI is still tight:

And the global current activity indicator is already in recession (which is anything under 2% global growth). Europe and China are leading the way but the US is catching down:

Amusingly, the ECB is about to pull the trigger on rate rate hikes despite an already strangling FCI:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.