Goldman’s nowcasting indexes are all telling the same sorry tale. Global recession is looming fast.
The global financial conditions index is off the chart tight:
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And growth is following in current activity indicators. Remember that anything 2% and below is considered a global recession:
Led lower by Russia, China and Europe:
And just in case you think it is Goldman’s indexes, here are TD Securities with the same:
Our high-frequency activity indicators are screaming “slowdown” across the board. Our daily global demand tracker has slipped into negative territory for the first time this year, as have TD’s hard-data surprise indexes across majore conomies. Global growth tracking suggests a sharp slowdown in 2022Q1. Y/Y global growth is now likely a touch below its potential of 3% for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.
The real problem? This:
Despite the global recession, the Fed has to keep tightening ensuring that any rebound in Europe and China is hit with the mother of all headwinds.
Global recession dead ahead.