Daily iron ore price update (latent price falls)

The ferrous complex was mixed on May 13, 2022:

Mysteel indexes are still very weak with steel overproduction very clear:

Some of this will be export-driven though wider measures of that are also still weak.

Most of it is just producing steel to keep idle hands busy so they don’t tear Beijing to pieces. CISA data for early May is out and shows the steel overproduction easing:

But inventories kept climbing at just below 19mt. Given CISA members are 80% of the market, here’s my best guess as to where mill steel inventories are in real-time (I’ve adjusted a UBS chart):

You can think of that steel pile as latent price falls for both steel and iron ore.

Houses and Holes
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