Some commodities are starting to break down but the indexes are still very strong. GSCI
Metals are coming off sharply and have just about erased the Ukraine jump:
There are 1280 words left in this subscriber-only article.
Get your first month for $1
But softs are still firm:
So is energy:
Frustratingly, none of these indexes includes Australia’s key bulk commodities of iron ore and coal.
Iron ore is falling out of bed and should continue to do so. This is Dalian futures:
The same can be said of coking coal in China:
But longer-dated seaborne coking coal prices are still rising in Singapore:
Thermal coal is similar
Which is pretty weird because JKM with which it competes has come off a lot and still is:
There are huge arbitrages all over the place here. Chinese coals are much lower than seaborne. Gas is much lower than coal. China is digging up more coal at an astonishing speed. Iron ore is still in a glut.
The market looks pretty stretched and irrational, doubtless pushed out of shape by real supply constraints and imagined ones.
I still think that a big global recession will rebase the lot. The commodity market needs it.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
- Thank god that’s over - May 22, 2022
- Highest interest rates in galaxy to pop Australian property bubble - May 20, 2022
- Bear markets and recessions - May 20, 2022
YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN
Gas cartel pays no tax, forces Aussies to pay more
While the gas cartel is busy forcing Australian
Daily iron ore price update (steel shred)
The ferrous complex was pounded on May 18,
Gas cartel delivers knockout lie of election campaign
What kind of hogwash is this leading the
Daily iron ore price update (correlation is king)
The ferrous complex was soft on May 17, 2022