When will depressed New Zealanders turn against Jacinda Ardern?

March’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been released, which reveals that consumer sentiment in New Zealand has collapsed to its lowest level in the series’ 18 year history:

New Zealand consumer sentiment

Kiwi consumer confidence has collapsed.

Confidence about the New Zealand economy continues to sour, as illustrated in the next charts:

Consumer confidence - better-off next yearConsumer confidence - 12 month's timeConsumer confidence - outlook 5 years ahead

The slump in consumer confidence follows a sharp rise up the “misery index”, which is based on the sum of the inflation rate (CPI) and the unemployment rate. As shown in the next chart, New Zealand’s misery index surged to an all-time high:

New Zealand's misery index

New Zealand surges up the “misery index”.

The latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan showed that Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party has fallen well behind the Opposition National Party:

New Zealand election polling

Jacinda Ardern falls way behind in the polls.

The big question now is whether depressed New Zealanders will turn en masse against Jacinda Ardern?

Unconventional Economist


  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    What do you think Mr Hugh? Would they turn against Arden, especially she’s popping the housing market to make it affordable to the youngsters

  2. So when did she pop the NZ housing bubble? Just trying to match that moment up with the chart….

    This is what happens if any pollie threatens house prices. We have allowed ourselves to become completely trapped. Massive systemic failure by whoever was in charge over the last 15 years. They have doomed us.

    • You could be right.
      But ever since I saw Ardern on TV a decade or more ago as a “Young Gun” – one to watch in politics, on the same programme as her counterpoint Simon Bridges, who went on to be Leader of the Opposition, and who has now just ‘retired’, she came across as honest.
      I know!
      Politics and Honesty are mutually exclusive. Be that as it may, whatever the polls say, I’ll suggest she’s done as well as anyone could have given in the recent and current climate.
      What will voter think in2023?
      Pretty much as I do, I’ll suggest. Because the alternative is far worse (a mini-Scott Morrison is every way imaginable!)

  3. – If the Nationals were in power then new zealanders would turn on that party.