When will depressed New Zealanders turn against Jacinda Ardern?

Advertisement

March’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been released, which reveals that consumer sentiment in New Zealand has collapsed to its lowest level in the series’ 18 year history:

New Zealand consumer sentiment

Kiwi consumer confidence has collapsed.

Confidence about the New Zealand economy continues to sour, as illustrated in the next charts:

Consumer confidence - better-off next yearConsumer confidence - 12 month's timeConsumer confidence - outlook 5 years ahead
Advertisement

The slump in consumer confidence follows a sharp rise up the “misery index”, which is based on the sum of the inflation rate (CPI) and the unemployment rate. As shown in the next chart, New Zealand’s misery index surged to an all-time high:

New Zealand's misery index

New Zealand surges up the “misery index”.

The latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan showed that Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party has fallen well behind the Opposition National Party:

Advertisement
New Zealand election polling

Jacinda Ardern falls way behind in the polls.

The big question now is whether depressed New Zealanders will turn en masse against Jacinda Ardern?

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.