Days after New Zealand’s consumer confidence hit a record low amid an explosion in COVID cases (i.e. around 200,000 since the start of February):
Voters continue to move against Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows that the Opposition National Party has moved well ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party on both Primary Vote:
Advertisement
As well as both a coalition basis:
As explained by Roy Morgan:
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National increasing for the fifth month in a row, up 3% points to 38% and now at its highest for over two years since January 2020. Support for National has now increased 11.5% points in only three months since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021.
Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government is now at 49.5% and clearly ahead of the current Labour/ Greens government of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 43%.
Although support for National increased for a fifth straight month the increase in February again came at the expense of fellow right-leaning party Act NZ for which support fell 2% points to 11.5% to its lowest since June 2021. Since Luxon took over the leadership of National support for Act NZ has now dropped by 6% points. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.
In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 0.5% points to 43% in February – the fifth straight month of declines for the government. Labour support dropped 1% point to only 32% to the lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office in late 2017 while support for the Greens increased 0.5% points to 11%.
A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 2%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 1% in February…
Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 52% for women aged 50+ compared to only 43.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support is at 52% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 44.5% for National/ Act NZ…
There is a stark difference for men with 58.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In February 57% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 35.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 60% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 32.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.
The next New Zealand election is scheduled for late next year whereby Jacinda Ardern will seek a third term in office. Based on these polling results, Ardern faces a tough battle.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
