AUSTRALIA
Child Care Support
Car Dependence
Employment Growth
Total Employment
Energy Fuel Source
Rents, Wages, CPI and House Prices
Housing Stress
CPI, RBA Rate, Wage Growth
Labour Force Underutilisation
Mortgage Payments, Principal and Interest
Petrol Prices
Household Spending over time
University Sector Employment losses 2020-2021
Budget Wages Forecasts
AMERICAS
Canada Consumer Credit & Mortgage Debt
US Federal Reserve & Real Rates
US Federal Reserve & Tightening
LA Home Prices
Vancouver Houses
LatAm Exports
LatAm Currencies 
LatAm Inflation
US Inflation
Mexico Avocados
Mexico Real GDP
US Leveraged Debt
US Consumer Sentiment
US Economic Growth by Generation
US Private Debt – Household and Non Financial Corps
US Hires and Quits
US Households – Net Worth
US Houses for sale
US Air Freight Import Costs
US Inflation and Fed Rate
US Jobs Growth
US Jobs 2
US 30 Year Fixed Mortgages
US Non Financial Debt
US Petroleum Products Consumption
US Wages and 30 Year Mortgage Rates
US Personal Savings
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
US Treasury Liquidity
US Total Debt
US Transportation Emissions
US Unemployment by State
US Working Age Population and US10s
ASIA
China Fossil CO2 Emissions
China Road Congestion
China Maturing Debt by Sector
Evergrande Yield
China House Prices
Chine Internet Revenues
China Lending
China Population Growth
China Industrial Products Production
China Exports – Hi Tech and Textiles, Goods Value Chain
China Wing & Solar Growth
China Cement Output & Fixed Asset Investment
China Real Estate Development
Debt to China in comparison with Major Global Issuers
Japan Balance of Payments
Japan Inflation
Japan Inflation 2
Shanghai Ships
EUROPE
ECB Market Punting
Euro Raw Materials
Eurozone Bank Lending Growth and Maturity
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
European Defence Spend
Holland & UK Natural Gas Prices
Europe Gas Imports
Europe Steel Spot
Eurozone Trade Deficit
Eurozone Negotiated Wages
Eurozone Unemployment & Consumer Expectations
France – Trade Balance & Imports
Gazprom Revenue Growth and PPE Spend
Germany 10 Year Mortgage Rate
Germany Income Expectations and Spending Willingness
Germany IFO Business Sentiment
Germany Inflation
COMMODITIES
Central Bank Gold
Rare Earths Uses
China Rare Earths Dominance
China Wheat Imports 2021 by Country
Global Coal Production
Corn Exports
Fertilizer Exports
US Fertilizer Prices
Global Crude Consumption
Global Crude Production
Gold Price
Industrial Metals
Oil Prices and Rate Hikes
Real Crude Price
Global Energy Prices
Soybean Exports
US LNG Exports by Destination
US LNG Exports 2
Wheat Exporters
Wheat Fertilizer and Soybean prices post February 24 2022
CAPITAL MARKETS
10 Year Sovereigns
Bitcoin Returns
Swiss Franc – Euro
US Fed Funds Rate
US Fed Hiking Cycles
US Fed Assets
Global Central Bank Rates
CNY as Global Reserve Currency
Price In Rate Hikes
Global Real Interest Rates
BoJ and JPY
US 2s
US10s
US10s 2
US10s 3
US Bond Durations
US Financial Intermediation
US Fed and Recession Risk
US M2
Diverging US Spreads
US Inversion
GLOBAL MACRO
Africa – Median Ages
Africa Sub Sahara Inflation
Battery Input Costs
Consumer Stress Searches
Emissions per Output
G20 Energy Mix
Global Food Prices
Global Inflation
Global Real House Prices
Global Shipping Costs
Developed World Houses
Developed World House Prices to Income
Global Housing Stock Growth
OECD House Prices to Income
Global House Prices and Exuberance
Cyclical Jobs Growth and Recessions
Global Container Capacity
Developed World Transfers and Disposable Income
Developed World Worker Pay Rise Requests
RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR
I have added this section this time, mainly because there doesn’t seem to be all that much grasp of some of the market, economic and social implications of the war Russia declared on Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Global Exposure to Russia Ukraine and Belarus Exports
Beyond the obvious oil and gas from Russia, the fertilizer supply will be worth keeping an eye on, along with unprocessed wood in Europe (and implication for paper prices), the grain markets, and (not noted below) global diamond and titanium supplies and prices also likely in for a jolt.
Russian exports in global markets
Another take similar to the above.
Russia’s commodity reach
And another take
The Russian footprint
and another.
Russian Gas in the EU
Russian gas is particularly critical for Germany and Central Europe, and it is the most obvious supply for much of Eastern Europe. Less obvious is the role of Russian gas in filling the vast storages in mainly Holland, so that EU demand supply imbalances can be managed.
The European reliance on Russian energy
Many of those European nations now have a 6 month window to prepare for next winter.
Russian energy
Russia’s reliance on crude oil and gas exports cannot really be overstated though. Any time forward of 2000 55-75% of all Russian export earnings have been energy related. Europe has been the prime focus of that, following on from ties between the Soviet Union and Europe
Russian crude production
Generally seen as on a par with OPEC or the US, Russia will need to find crude sales, and China is unlikely to immediately replace the EU.
Russian oil import dependence
Another take on the Russian crude hit – for both Russia and the rest of the world
The RUB the USD and Gold
Most Russians are well aware of the currency impact of their government upsetting the rest of the world, and they’ve been there before. Many large and expensive items (notably real estate) will now be changing hands in Russia in relation to a USD price, and many Russians with the money are surprisingly (for Australians) alert to currency moves, regularly swapping between EUR, USD and RUB – though that will become far more problematic. The Russian state and the Central Bank of Russia, has long run long on ensuring they have a good supply of gold on hand.
The RUB-USD
An absolute belting which did catch a lot of Russians unawares, but plenty of Russians are permanently nervous about their own currency.
RUB Crises past
The reason Russians are nervous is because they have been here before
Countries most exposed to commodity supply risk from Russia Ukraine war
There will be concern about oil around the world, but South Korea and India will be perspiring a touch more. Note the exposure to grain shock for much of the Middle East (both Ukraine and Russia are big suppliers), and Venezuelans should begin panic buying food soon.
Wheat
Another take. The Middle East would be fretting on food price inflation.
Selected Crops
Ukrainian sunflower oil and corn will also be a focus
Ukraine Wheat
Ukraine is a very significant global wheat producer.
Russia Alumina
Russian aluminium production is in trouble. The Australian imports come from Queensland Alumina (part owned by Rusal (20%) and Rio Tinto (80%))
Russian copper exports
Copper markets could be in for a jolt too
Post Soviet Economic Performance
Poland and Latvia jumped into the EU, and Russia has funded itself with energy. Ukraine – a worse Post Soviet outcome than Belarus, says plenty.
Russian banking offshore assets
The Russian banking system is unlike the banking systems of the developed world, or the developing world. It is distinctive for holding a large asset volume offshore (outside Russia) when it is not a major capital trading centre in its own right (eg London or New York). This has legitimate bases as well as fairly obvious ties to money laundering involving the West Indies, Cyprus, the UK and Holland. This is also why, to make a sanctions regime work against Russia, the EU and US have had to ‘freeze’ those reserves, and thereby weaponized the global financial system. That may well work against Russia now, but may also come with costs later on for the global financial system, and have implications for other net accumulators of reserves.
Russian FDI
‘Russian FDI’ has long been a useful disguise for the laundering of money generated within Russia – being made to look like FDI, usually by Russian interests to give it some ostensible protection from the corruption within Russia. Of the below FDI sources almost all apart that from France, Germany and the United States will likely be Russian originated funds.
Russia – Current Account
Russia has run a current account surplus off oil and gas for a generation. It runs deficits in almost every economic sector other than energy. It has been distinctive amongst energy producers for being overtly ‘produce now and sell whatever the price’ and often irritating both OPEC and US producers with its approach.
The sanctions against Russian energy sales will be painful for buyers, but also painful in Russia will be the lack of European consumer items soon coming to the streets of Moscow and beyond. German (in particular – with German companies regularly better than their Anglosphere counterparts at coming to term with Russia) automakers, whitegoods and clothing manufacturers will be feeling the pinch.
GDP Capital Formation and Government
The Russian government has run an often austere budget for a generation, and has very low personal tax rates, though energy revenues enable that. The need for the State to be more proactive will make what follows from here feel a lot like the late Soviet era.
Russia Reserves
As a generator of massive financial reserves, running a fairly austere domestic budget, Russia has faced a major problem with where to stash those reserves. Once it was a simple matter of buy the US Treasuries, but they have been getting out of that for more than a decade. The Russian State’s large physical gold holding has in part been an expression of Russian suspicion about having financial reserves anywhere, while not being comfortable leaving them in Russia.
Russian Private Wealth
The very concept was alien to Russia just 40 years ago. It now has a wealth concentration which would make Lenin or Marx turn in their graves.
Fund exposure to Russian sovereign debt
Some very big global funds have established long standing, and often quite lucrative, positions in Russian sovereign debt markets.
China Investment in Russia
There has been plenty of comment to suggest that China will be able to fill the gap for Russia in terms of demand for its output. The dynamic is unlikely to be that simple. Russia has had concerns about Chinese reticence to invest in anything other than raw materials production in Russia, and its habit of nailing producer prices to the floor for long term mega contracts on things such as gas has also irritated some in Moscow. Russia has very major gas supply contracts with China which have been questioned for their returns to the Russian people within Russia. Much of the ‘manufacturing’ investment is likely investment in military capacity or production.
Russian Business Sentiment
Russian business sentiment, or that part of it not closing up, has something of the feel of an Acapulco cliff diver about it.
The people of Russia
A lot of people don’t quite get that Russia has a lot of minority ethnic groups inside the nation, and is surprisingly ethnically diverse
Putin Popularity in Russia
He may control the Media and democracy may be ‘managed’ but VV Putin certainly does have an enduring popularity in Russia, which much of the rest of the world has simply never understood. At least at the outset of the Ukraine war (and confirmed by people in Moscow and across Russia) he has firmed it up.
Russian Births/Deaths
Russia is a demographic disaster area, with the population actually shrinking. This is generally assumed to reflect the economic malaise of the Post Soviet era which saw migration rates soar and birth rates collapse. VV Putin has often said it is an issue Russia needs to address. Economic isolation now will only reinforce the trends (migration and fewer children) boding poorly for Russia’s future. Also worth noting is Ukraine’s demographics are broadly similar – shrinking population and widespread impetus to migrate.
Ukraine Asset Prices
Being attacked by a large well armed neighbour isn’t good for asset prices
Ukraine refugees
There is a major humanitarian crisis now in Europe which in 6 weeks has taken in more than 3 million Ukraine refugees. Most of those have gone to Poland. The sheer numbers of refugees are likely to generate calls for fiscal stimulus inside the EU.
Ukraine refugees
The implications of having large numbers of refugees will generate increasing concern across Europe.
Ships in Ukraine ports
Many of these will be grain carriers.
…..AND FURTHERMORE…..
Tropical Land Clearing and Agriculture
Blood Types
Electric Cars and ICE Cars – Minerals required
Female Labour Share
World Population and Fertility
Food Prices and Instability
Fossil Fuel Financiers
Global Emissions
Global Food Security
House Price to Rent Ratios
North Korea Missile trajectories
1% Emissions
Global Pension Plans (are they all tax avoidance plans?)
Renewables by 2050?
Unsafe Water
Concordia Station, Antarctica – Temperature Anomalies
