It’s the best leading indicator for world trade available. Pantheon:
Early export data from Korea suggest plunging Chinese demand will weigh heavily on global trade in April. Exports to China grew just 1.8% year-over-year in the first 20 days of April, down from 11.3% in March, even as total 20-day exports accelerated to 16.9% year-over-year, from 10.0% in March. At best, we think the improvement in the headline is a temporary respite from the downward trend, particularly given the evolution of exports at the margin.
Part of the boost to April’s export performance comes from base effects, as apparent in our third chart. Exports grew by just 3.9% on a three-monthon-three-month annualised basis, seasonally adjusted, up from 2.4% in March. Overall exports fell 0.2% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted, after growing 0.6% in March. This renewed downturn at the margin will drag on the headline performance in time.
