The ferrous complex rallied modestly over Easter, 2022:
Yesterday’s China data dump revealed a few things. First, steel production has leaped:
Pig iron output is running at about 2018/19 levels, down roughly 9% YoY or 30mt of iron ore through Q1:
The rebound has restarted recycling at scale but it isn’t showing any signs of growth for five years now, in complete contradiction with Beijing announcements.
So, China needed 30mt less iron ore in Q1 than in 2021, or 120mt annualised.
Even accounting for Ukraine taking out 40mt of supply, I still can’t see how this adds up to a price of $160!