Australia’s rental crisis is about to turn catastrophic

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The latest sets of rental data are a nightmare for Australia’s growing population of renters.

CoreLogic reported that rents across Australia continue to explode, surging by 8.7% nationally and by 10.7% across the combined regions in the year to March 2022:

Australian rental growth

Aussie rents soar from coast-to-coast

The surge in rental growth follows the lowest rental vacancy rates in 16 years, according to SQM Research:

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Australian rental vacancy rates

Rental vacancy rates are tanking.

The extreme tightness across Australia’s rental markets has been driven by the pandemic-induced shrinkage in average household size as people demanded more space. This has effectively reduced the number of homes available to rent.

To make a diabolical rental picture even worse, the federal government plans to import 235,000 migrants a year into Australia, which will dramatically lift demand at the same time as the volume of dwelling commencements has fallen sharply:

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Australian dwelling commencements

Australian dwelling starts have fallen sharply.

The situation is summed up nicely by Property Investment Professionals of Australia president Nicola McDougall, who warns that “rental affordability pressures facing many households are only going to get worse – and soon”:

“With overseas migration projected to soar over coming years, where are these new Aussies going to live if we don’t even have enough rental properties to house our current population?”

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In short, the planned mass immigration reboot will add further pressure to an already tight rental market, turning Australia’s rental crisis into a catastrophe.

Sadly, Australia’s growing army of renters are blind to our politicians, who always prefer to throw money at home buyers and other policies that inflate prices.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.