Morrison opens immigration floodgates to a trickle

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Recall that the Morrison Government in late November announced its intention to import at least 200,000 migrant workers into Australia by July 2022:

“We are working on a figure of 200,000, it may well be more than that but we will be actively looking to bring as many people into Australia as soon as we possibly canKaren Andrews, 22 November 2021.

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released overseas arrivals and departures data for January, which revealed that a net 3,020 permanent and long-term arrivals landed in Australia in January, pushing the quarterly intake to 26,280:

Quarterly net long-term arrivals
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Annual net permanent and long-term arrivals also edged further into positive territory (+6,320):

Annual net long-term arrivals

International student arrivals were also soft at only 11,340 combined over December and January:

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International student arrivals

The ABS’ monthly net permanent and long-term arrivals data correlates strongly with its official quarterly net overseas migration (NOM) data, which is released on a two quarter delay:

Australian net immigration
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Based on the above, NOM should remain negative in the September quarter before rebounding in December.

However, it looks like the Morrison Government is struggling to hit its lofty 200,000 July immigration target.

Australians, who are overwhelming against rebooting pre-COVID immigration levels, will once again be grateful to other countries for paying more attention to their interests than does Canberra.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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