Nomura with the note:
Q. What would an escalation in Ukraine mean for markets?
A. We believe an invasion of Ukraine from Russia would lead to a negative response from the US (and allies), which would lead to, at a minimum, significant sanctions. In our view, the resulting impact of sanctions (with the risk of military conflict) may lead to a surge in oil prices (food prices), sell-off in risk markets, flattening of the US yield curve, and an ensuing bid in the USD (EUR weakness; broad EM FX weakness). This is in combination with a still likely path of rate hikes from the US Fed (even if the risk is some pricing-out of hikes).
