The ferrous complex was all over the place on February 2, 2022:
I’m not going to pretend that I have any idea what is going on. On fundamentals, the price should be well below $100 and falling.
I will note only that despite oodles of coal in China and everywhere else, and fading growth prospects, deescalating tensions in Ukraine, Iranian oil deals and falling global gas prices, thermal coal is off and running again:
My best guess is that a cohort of hot money is buying every commodity in the world as fast as it can for inflation protection, aided by the very inflation that that creates.
It will end when the Fed ends it.