The ferrous complex was in a state of hysterical bid on February 7, 2022 as everything melted up:
There is no basis in fundamentals for this. Demand is shocking. Inventories enormous. Supply is abundant and the price surge already reopening mines. China is turning hostile to price action and seasonality will turn troublesome shortly.
But this bid long ago departed any rational foundation. It is a melt-up based upon global hot money chasing the last embers of a crazed stagflation bid.
Given it is speculative, I have no idea where it will top out. It could be today or it could be at $1000.
Fear is an appropriate response.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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