Kyiv Mayor and Former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Vitali Klitschko preparing to meet the Russian invasion in person
Over the last two days days Russian troops have entered parts of Kyiv, after a series of missile barrages, with tanks approaching the Ukrainian capital from the North, accompanied by artillery. The movements have included attacks on residential areas amidst fierce gun battles, alongside a Russian takeover of Hostomel airport, a major cargo handling facility near Kyiv which appears to have succeeded. Observers currently anticipate a high likelihood of a Russian attempt to take the city within hours.
The moves suggests the Russian attack has turned into a major offensive focused on regime change, which many are expecting will lead to major casualties. In a powerful information development the Ukraine military has established a hotline for the families of Russian soldiers to be able to call and establish of their sons or brothers are prisoners. There have been widespread protests across more than 50 cities, with first hand communications over the weekend with people in Russia underlining the surprising number of them who have relatives and close friends in Ukraine, particularly Kyiv, the large numbers of Ukrainians in particularly Moscow and a widespread sense of VVP having lost the plot, along with a dawning realisation that they are facing a long period being isolated from certainly Europe.
A number of observers are questioning what the intent of the assault actually is, seeing as it is galvanising Ukrainian and global public opinion, and already is leading to widespread criticism from within Russia – with ordinary Russians questioning President Putin’s health and the rationale for the assault to the extent they can. Noted observer, Ben Aris, referred to the decision to attack a city of more than 4 million people as ‘batshit crazy’. In a sharp exchange with his own spy chief in the lead up to the ‘operation’ (with Russian media not allowed, according to some, to refer to a ‘war’). One assumes that VVP will have been under stress for quite a while, but his face dopes appear puffy in the following video, with his eyes not the usual sharpness either.
Is VVP all that well?
The Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated he will remain in Kyiv, despite identifying himself and his family as major Russian targets, and has posted videos confirming his location, along with significant administration figures, and being offered the evacuation by the US. His calls for international assistance, directed largely at the nations of the EU and the United States are being met with little enthusiasm for direct intervention, but some further commitments of weaponry for the Ukraine military, as well as a NATO boost to forces away from Ukraine in the Baltics, and Germany has agreed to send defensive weapons. Ukrainian forces have blown bridges to the North of the city to attempt to slow the Russian advance, while elsewhere in Ukraine Russian forces spreading out from Crimea have reached the Dnepr, with explosions observed in near Kherson Mykolaiv, other troops are believed to have moved beyond Melitopl, with reports, Kharkiv under attack, and continuing engagements in the far East of Ukraine near Lugansk.
Thousands of Ukrainians are now sheltering in metro stations around Kyiv or in the metro systems of other major cities, and thousands more are streaming across border crossings into Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Moldova, amidst rising expectations across Europe that more will follow and that refugee visas will be made available. The UN is reporting 150 thousand Ukrainians have left the country in the first two days of fighting, and warning that as many as 5 million could soon be preparing to move. Reliable sources are reporting streams of traffic heading to the West of Ukraine from Kyiv, with further reports of queues stretching 40 kilometres from the border with Poland and Slovakia.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the war with a rambling and Soviet history reference laden speech to the Russian people in the early hours of Thursday Morning Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy – a native of Eastern Ukraine and a well known comedian in Ukraine prior to becoming national leader – responded with an emotional appeal to the Russian people emphasising that Ukraine and its people posed no threat to them, and that Ukraine and Ukrainians simply wanted peace and freedom. The appeal and Zelenskyy’s decision to remain in Kyiv and post to the Ukrainian people about what is unfolding has commanded widespread international respect and added to his domestic stature.
This address to the Russian people by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has attracted considerable attention with the Russian public who have been able to access it, and is believed in part responsible for a very sizeable turnout in more than 50 Russian cities to protest the war now unfolding in Ukraine.
Current Operations
There are currently four major areas of operations. In the North Kyiv is being enveloped by forces which have entered Ukraine from the North. In the South forces spreading out from Crimea have reached the lower Dnepr and are engaged near Kherson, on the Dnepr (reestablishing the water supply for Crimea), with others having come out of Crimea and turned East, taken Melitopol (although this is being disputed) towards Mariupol and Donetsk. In the far east of Ukraine, Russian aligned forces (Russian troops but also militias from the newly declared independent states of Lugansk) are pushing North West from near Lugansk in the direction of Slavyansk, apparently to influence a pull back by Ukrainian defenders near Kharkov. In the North East of Ukraine between Sumy and Kharkov (both cities have experienced shelling) the operations are likely to be outflanked if either Kyiv falls further West, or if forces from the South move up the Dnepr.
Sanctions and economic responses
The US Treasury has announced the US Dollar is out of use for largest Russian banks. The move has had an instant impact on large numbers of Russians outside Russia using the Russian banks, with a lot of cards worldwide now ceasing to work. It appears increasingly likely that Russia will be cut from SWIFT in the coming days after most European nations have agreed to support the idea – with a range of caveats designed to minimise negative international impacts. EU Commission President Ursula Van Der Leyen has declared that the EU will make it impossible for the Central Bank of Russia to liquidate assets, and freeze its transactions.
Large numbers of European political and administrative identities are vacating positions on Russian company boards, with Russian controlled assets internationally coming under far closer scrutiny. Chelsea owner, Roman Abramovich, has passed ‘stewardship and control’ of Chelsea FC to a trust.
Heading towards Monday
It appears that Russian cut off from SWIFT may well be announced on Sunday. That has implications for European energy supply as of this week. A weekend call round has confirmed that large scale hospital facilities have been established in Russia, and that mobile crematoria facilities have been deployed. More ominously, for anyone with awareness of the Chechen War, an estimated 10 thousand Chechen troops are expected to be deployed this week, with BBC news sources suggesting that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov certainly knew in advance.
Ramzan Kadyrov is the leader of Chechnya and best known to Australians after being denied access to Australia to see a horse he owned compete in the 2009 Melbourne Cup. His troops, which have a reputation for bloodiness, are anticipated in Ukraine this coming week.
The below is a reasonable chat covering a lot of the issues leading up to the war and the implications it now has. Ben Aris is the editor of BNE Intellinews and has spent the best part of 2 decades in Moscow and Kyiv. Chris Weafer is a very respected strategist who has been with a number of major investment banks