Links 14 January 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:


Europe (and the UK):




Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. So here’s a perp walk, named, and fair enough, guy is a cnvt. As referenced above.

    But here’s a conviction, not named. Why? I’ve looked back to the police reports, no names, no explanation why names are suppressed.

    Edit: The guy is 40s, not underage.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Just another attack on the freedom of religion! One thing that should have always been out of bounds during this slight epidemic is controlling how people express their love for our Lord Jesus Christ!!!

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        That’s why we can’t find any! They’re running off and deserting the sinking ship that is the coalition government.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      The guy is a true fkwit and national embarrassment.
      Why won’t the Liberal party just roll him.
      For the sake of their own party as much as for the sake of our country.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    Mortgage Rates in U.S. Soar to the Highest Since March 2020 … Bloomberg

    U.S. mortgage interest rates surge by most in almost 2 years … Reuters

    Producer Prices Surge To Record High As Services Costs Soar … Zerohedge

    Era of ‘cheap money’ under more threat as US inflation hits 39-year high of 7% … Stuff NZ

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      New Zealand housing: Dangerously high multiple lending days are over …

      Shattered dreams as home loan approvals plunge after lending law changes … Rob Stock … Stuff New Zealand

      When the Irish housing market crashed in 2007, housing median multiples across its metros fell from 4.7 to 2.8 (refer Demographia Surveys below), putting all its Banks to the wall and requiring a bailout from German financial institutions (who stood to lose the most) of about 70 billion euros.

      Currently overall, New Zealand housing is in excess of 9.0 median multiple (refer Interest Co NZ Median Multiple Tracker below).

      In subsequent research, the Central Bank of Ireland found excessive mortgage debt to income (DTI) a far greater problem than high loan to value lending (LTV) and capped mortgages at 3.5 times gross annual household income (refer Central Bank of Ireland Mortgage Measures below).

      Have New Zealand’s financial institutions and brokers adequately explained to their clients the risks of high multiple lending ? …

      All Editions – Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys

      Median Multiples – Interest Co NZ

      Mortgage Measures – Central Bank of Ireland .,%2Dincome%20(LTI)%20limits.

      • Absolute BeachMEMBER

        Wow Hugh. Prices at 9x medium. That is insane. Insane isn’t strong enough. 9x.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Have New Zealand’s financial institutions and brokers adequately explained to their clients the risks of high multiple lending ? …
        Why waste your breath explaining this one financial risk when experience definitely shows that the path to home ownership is proven to have the lowest overall risk.
        Compare the risk of not buying (given that your family needs to live somewhere). The risk of not buying has far more risks than that of buying. Tenants have no rights in NSW (and very few rights in VIC) not sure about NZ.
        In NSW a tenant that has never missed a rent payment and never damaged the property, can be told to pack-up and leave with as little as 4 weeks notice. If you’re 20 something and have only yourself to look out for than who cares, however if you’re 40 something with 3 kids and a wife and a full time job, moving with just 4 weeks notice is likely to be a little disruptive (especially in tight rental markets) This risk is real (very real) and every bit as debilitating as the risk of defaulting on a mortgage, but it’s not mentioned anywhere and is far more likely to occur especially given the financially stretched position that many landlords find themselves in.
        I’ve known families that were forced to move 3 times in the space of 5 years. Every move was made because the landlord wanted to maximize his/her financial position without a moments thought given to the lives of this family.
        IMHO there are no rational limits to house prices until renting is a viable alternative, that means the first step is tenant rights writ large…very large.
        Renting needs to be seen by everyone as a viable low risk alternative to home ownership. At the moment renting is definitely the high risk path.

      • UpperWestsideMEMBER

        3.5 times gross annual was the going rate when I first bought a place (80’s)
        But rates on my mortgage went to just under 17% and that was pretty painful.

  3. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Fitzsimons Republic

    “Keating blasts new republic proposal as dangerous ‘US-style presidency”

    “The difficulty is how to actually manage that kind of election so that you don’t end up with something that is run and funded by politicians, or a situation where the candidate needs to be rich,”

    The left hate the monarchy, and will put us in harms way to get rid of it. Do not trust them.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The one where 2/3 of politicians pick the head of state failed in the 1999 referendum. Elected by popular vote would be interesting if Queen Elizabeth is placed on the ticket : she’ll get elected easily.

      Like the ‘Joker’ saga with the visa, it is nothing but a distraction from the disaster of COVID mess.

  4. working class hamMEMBER

    “He hasn’t visited his family since Melbourne’s [first] lockdown and, of course, I need to be wise by letting him go,” Mr Sanusi said.
    When your boss lets you have holidays after 2 years, you should feel grateful.

    Maybe restaurant owners could use some of the money they were skimming off the top of wages for the last decade to help them through?

  5. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    “Khawaja has an exceptional record opening the batting in Test cricket, making 484 runs at 96.80 in seven innings, including two centuries and two fifties.”

    Really, there could be an OAM waiting for him at the end of this test series. Or a knighthood if the Queen has had time to follow the series and wants to keep throwing her weight around like she did with HRH Andy today.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      What I don’t get is how it has all gotten this far. I think our Queen is loosing her grip. Surely in the old days that young party bird would have disappeared long ago. And in the real old days it wouldn’t have even been a secret, she would have been made an example of.

      • Historically correct and you did not even have to be a Royal. Good Christian husbands and wives that like to play with their servants, only for them to fall with child, regularly were falsely accused of sex outside the boundaries of marriage and hence a crime against the church and its flock. These servants were then made to stand in front of the congregation whilst charges were laid against them and then made to stand in the church doorway as the congregation existed – for a more personal dressing down. Then on top of all that cast aside from the community and thrown out from their employment all for doing what their masters demanded of them.

        One can only think of the excitement the masters experienced in shopping[tm] for a new night time toy … younger, untouched, a new game ….

  6. This one’s for you Chris. I note the author used the same satellite series that I posted yesterday that showed showed last year to be cooler than 1998.Note how the NASA chart has erased it.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Thankfully Gerry’s supply is fine and you’ll be able to get tests at fine medical establishments like Harvey Norman, Bunnings, KFC, Macca’s, Fox Trucking Depots, Channel 7 and 9 studios, the big four banking retail outlets etc just not sh1tty little disease ridden village chemists (unless they are part of a large chain of course).

    • From first link and accurate in describing why the response is so shambolic –

      nixy pixy
      1 hour ago
      There is another issue in the US, that I don’t hear much about. Over the years we have closed down more hospitals than have been opened, despite the population growth. We have operated with the bare minimum needed for normal times, with comorbidities factored in, and this was a disaster waiting to happen.

      So firstly you have the EMH privatize, incentivize, efficiencies, defund public anything, sell public assets, feed the unwashed slow poison, all whilst stressing everyone out endlessly [bad for health] in personally paying for everything which the costs that just keeps going up and up with sharing/gig jobs without any long term job prospects.

      So its hardly a big surprise after knowledge has been corrupted, public institutions whiteanted, and bootstrapping the thin gruel everyone gets … but don’t worry too much Hugh … all the billionaires are doing great and will come out better than ever …

  7. Australia’s Economic Complexity Index
    I’m certain that all regular readers are aware of my fixation with this Index, I’m personally taking a deep dive into the underlying metrics / measurements (that make up the complexity Index) and attempting to cross correlate Index outcomes with our Education system outcomes and student choices.
    It’s no secret that high PISA scores (Global education Index) correspond to improving Economic Complexity Index scores, but the flip side of this equation is that worsening PISA scores (education system outcomes) also correlate to worsening Economic Complexity Index scores.

    Australia is a good example of falling PISA scores corresponding to falling Economic Complexity Index scores, but what I’m finding even more interesting is the correlation between the course choices which high school students make (during their HS education) and corresponding changes in forward looking components of the complexity index. To be expected, I guess, but alarming all the same

    My question is, are others interested in tagging along on this data driven journey? I get the feeling that this fixation is just my shtick, but I thought I’d ask anyway.

    • Looks like there’s limited interest so I will probably just try to share interesting data sets.
      Do you guys have access to Matlab/Simulink and are you familiar with applying Bayesian Inference methods in a multivariate data space.

    • What do you mean by “corresponding changes in forward looking components of the complexity index”?

      • There’s a lot more to the Economic Complexity Index then just the final number, to understand some of the constitutent elements check out
        Complexity Outlook Index

        A measure of how many complex products are near a country’s current set of productive capabilities. The COI captures the ease of diversification for a country, where a high COI reflects an abundance of nearby complex products that rely on similar capabilities or know-how as that present in current production. Complexity outlook captures the connectedness of an economy’s existing capabilities to drive easy (or hard) diversification into related complex production, using the Product Space.

        A low complexity outlook reflects that a country has few products that are a short distance away, so will find it difficult to acquire new know-how and increase their economic complexity.

        Opportunity Gain

        Measures how much a location could benefit in opening future diversification opportunities by developing a particular product. Opportunity outlook gain quantifies how a new product can open up links to more, and more complex, products. Opportunity outlook gain classifies the strategic value of a product based on the new paths to diversification in more complex sectors that it opens up.

        Opportunity outlook gain accounts for the complexity of the products not being produced in a location and the distance or how close to existing capabilities that new product is.

        There are also many extensions to the complexity Index that are being explored by different groups. Clearly Australia is an outlier, from an education and capability perspective we don’t belong beside countries like Peru and Mongolia. Something is wrong when the Index puts us there.
        Personally I’m more interested in calculating the “Rate of Change of capability” as opposed to actually measuring just the capability. In many ways understanding “change” and how countries respond provides a more accurate picture of the future then just trying to compute their capability.

    • MerkwürdigliebeMEMBER

      As a Liverpool fan (so biased I know) I actually think Mo Salah would be about the best footballer in the world at the moment

      • I am pretty disillusioned with the hyperprofessional game so haven’t kept up, but I think my boys who know everything about football would agree with you.