Global Macro / Markets / Investing:
- South African studies suggest Omicron has higher ‘asymptomatic carriage’ – Reuters
- Even in ‘deflationary’ Japan, prices are shooting upwards amid pandemic – SCMP
- Fed’s Mester backs shrinking balance sheet ‘as fast as we can’ without pushing markets off track – Marketwatch
- Eight countries that include Iran, Venezuela and Sudan have lost their right to vote at the United Nations because of unpaid dues. – France24 (those late video fees are a killer)
Americas:
- Trump hangs up on NPR interviewer when pressed about non-existent election ‘fraud’ – Independent
- There’s a growing push in Congress to limit lawmakers’ ability to trade stocks – CNBC
- Thousands sign up for 1st dose of COVID-19 vaccine as Quebec threatens to tax the unvaxxed – CTV
- Kim Kardashian and Floyd Mayweather sued by investors over alleged crypto scam – CNBC
- CDC forecast predicts more than 62,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the next four weeks – CNN
- U.S. posts smallest budget deficit in two years as employment rebounds – Reuters
- Omicron is creating a ‘crisis, red-tier situation’ in health care – NBC News
- Ground Temperatures Hit 129 Degrees as Argentina Suffers Blackouts – Gizmodo
Europe (and the UK):
- Anger as energy company advises star jumps and cuddling a pet to keep warm this winter – BBC
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson admits he attended No.10 ‘BYOB’ garden party during the height of the first lockdown, as Labour Leader Keir Starmer demands his resignation – HuffPo
- U.S., NATO reject Russia’s demand to exclude Ukraine from alliance – GlobalNews
- Prince Andrew to face civil sex assault case after US ruling – BBC
- Mexico’s deadliest cartel is dropping bombs from a drone onto rival camps in new turf war – NYP
- Ukraine dusts off Cold War bunkers in case of Russian invasion many think won’t happen – CBC
- Half of France’s primary schools expected to close as teachers strike – Guardian
Asia:
- Japan calls for stricter COVID-19 measures for U.S. military personnel – GlobalVoices
- China uses case count excuse to force elderly & distant family members to reunite at a more convenient time for the Party – Yahoo
- Myanmar’s former Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi sentenced to 4 more years in prison – Mainichi
- US to station technicians in Taiwan to service Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles – Taiwan News
- US and EU to confront China in aerospace industry, trade official says – SCMP
- Thailand detects African swine fever in sample at slaughterhouse – Reuters
- Hong Kong government denounces “biased reporting” by the Economist – Reuters
Trans-Tasman:
- ‘Code red’: Melbourne businesses say Omicron wave more damaging than lockdown – Guardian
- Morrison confirms order of 10 million RATs, encourages other Australian families to do the same – The Shovel
- Nation with no food thankful government spent crucial weeks focused on making it legal to fire gay people – Chaser (truth is getting a little too close to satire yeah?)
- My bile rises as I’m asked to move my dying cancer patient out of ICU to make room for an unvaccinated man with Covid | Ranjana Srivastava – Guardian
- Djokovic put a spotlight on Australia’s cruel immigration system. Don’t look away. – Washington Post (for about 3 maybe 4 minutes…nobody cares unless its sport related)
- The Australian Open draw has been delayed “until further notice”. No details have been provided on a reason or revised timeframe. “ – ABC (I refer to above comment)
- Waste collection could ‘grind to a halt’ as coronavirus staff shortages force delays – The Age (dump it at The Lodge)
- Amid staff shortages, restaurant owners are ‘fighting over’ workers to keep their businesses running – ABC
Other:
- Lawsuit aiming to break up Facebook group Meta can go ahead, US court rules | Meta
- Cancer mortality rates continue to decline amid ‘major progress’ in lung cancer early detection and treatment – CNN
- Study Finds Cannabis Compounds Prevent Infection By Covid-19 Virus – Forbes
- World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded – Axios
- Financial Incentives and other nudges do not increase COVID-19 Vaccination Rates among those hesitant. – Vox (its more structural than just incentivising)
- Iran’s Asiatic cheetahs in “dire” risk as just 12 known to remain in wild – Newsweek (cheetahs are on their way out, sadly…)
Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)
- Macro Afternoon - August 19, 2022
- Macro Morning - August 19, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - August 18, 2022
How the 1988 [email protected] hate crime murder of Scott Johnson in Sydney was resolved
https://ab.co/3Fo7rZI
https://www.9news.com.au/national/snake-catchers-warning-for-pet-owners-after-python-eats-caged-birds/d963c66f-495a-48f1-9628-8e7044ab0bcb
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/macquarie-bank-no-australias-third-largest-bank
https://bigrigs.com.au/index.php/2022/01/12/local-adblue-production-ramps-up/
So here’s a perp walk, named, and fair enough, guy is a cnvt. As referenced above.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397405/Man-admits-pushing-maths-genius-Scott-Johnson-cliff-1988-ending-longstanding-murder-mystery.html
But here’s a conviction, not named. Why? I’ve looked back to the police reports, no names, no explanation why names are suppressed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397699/Road-rage-driver-rammed-car-driver-jailed.html
Edit: The guy is 40s, not underage.
The Tele names them (can only see 3 in search results as I don’t subscribe) ie Thistleton, Denyer, Brannigan
Scott Johnson’s 1988 [email protected] hate murder finally solved after decades of hurt, crusade for justice
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-14/scott-johnson-murder-guilty-plea-ends-family-crusade-for-justice/100755460
Wow, kids killing each other by singing… https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hillsong-camp-ordered-to-stop-singing-dancing-in-breach-of-covid-19-rules-20220113-p59o51.html
Just another attack on the freedom of religion! One thing that should have always been out of bounds during this slight epidemic is controlling how people express their love for our Lord Jesus Christ!!!
You say Jesus Christ in the same way this guy does I imagine.
https://youtu.be/hGu3ZVKpRs8
Thanks Ermo. Made my day a little brighter in a uniquely South Park way. That, and the study that found buds prevent COVID. Wicked.
Yes that information Makes my writing “Bong on Aussie” everywhere in the 80s seem less infantile now.
Snotty looks a lot happier than Jen in the wedding pic.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397421/Prime-Minister-Scott-Morrison-gushing-message-wife-Jenny-Novak-Djokovic-presser.html#reader-comments
Who gives a RAT’s about Scummo’s wedding anniversary?
That’s why we can’t find any! They’re running off and deserting the sinking ship that is the coalition government.
The guy is a true fkwit and national embarrassment.
Why won’t the Liberal party just roll him.
For the sake of their own party as much as for the sake of our country.
Energy fears mount as European gas reserves head for record low – live updates https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/13/ftse-100-markets-live-news-inflation-energy-shares-pound/
The answer being, sign some LT contracts guys, stop treating Russians like fools. trying to getting something for nothing… If they run out, and the cold hits, the political repercussions will be enormous.
United States …
Mortgage Rates in U.S. Soar to the Highest Since March 2020 … Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/mortgage-rates-in-the-u-s-soar-to-the-highest-since-march-2020
U.S. mortgage interest rates surge by most in almost 2 years … Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-mortgage-interest-rates-surge-by-most-almost-2-years-2022-01-12/
Producer Prices Surge To Record High As Services Costs Soar … Zerohedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-surge-record-high-services-costs-soar
Era of ‘cheap money’ under more threat as US inflation hits 39-year high of 7% … Stuff NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127487002/era-of-cheap-money-under-more-threat-as-us-inflation-hits-39year-high-of-7
New Zealand housing: Dangerously high multiple lending days are over …
Shattered dreams as home loan approvals plunge after lending law changes … Rob Stock … Stuff New Zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127482627/shattered-dreams-as-home-loan-approvals-plunge-after-lending-law-changes
When the Irish housing market crashed in 2007, housing median multiples across its metros fell from 4.7 to 2.8 (refer Demographia Surveys below), putting all its Banks to the wall and requiring a bailout from German financial institutions (who stood to lose the most) of about 70 billion euros.
Currently overall, New Zealand housing is in excess of 9.0 median multiple (refer Interest Co NZ Median Multiple Tracker below).
In subsequent research, the Central Bank of Ireland found excessive mortgage debt to income (DTI) a far greater problem than high loan to value lending (LTV) and capped mortgages at 3.5 times gross annual household income (refer Central Bank of Ireland Mortgage Measures below).
Have New Zealand’s financial institutions and brokers adequately explained to their clients the risks of high multiple lending ? …
All Editions – Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys
http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm
Median Multiples – Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples
Mortgage Measures – Central Bank of Ireland .
https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures#:~:text=The%20mortgage%20measures%20are%20aimed,%2Dincome%20(LTI)%20limits.
Wow Hugh. Prices at 9x medium. That is insane. Insane isn’t strong enough. 9x.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Have New Zealand’s financial institutions and brokers adequately explained to their clients the risks of high multiple lending ? …
Why waste your breath explaining this one financial risk when experience definitely shows that the path to home ownership is proven to have the lowest overall risk.
Compare the risk of not buying (given that your family needs to live somewhere). The risk of not buying has far more risks than that of buying. Tenants have no rights in NSW (and very few rights in VIC) not sure about NZ.
In NSW a tenant that has never missed a rent payment and never damaged the property, can be told to pack-up and leave with as little as 4 weeks notice. If you’re 20 something and have only yourself to look out for than who cares, however if you’re 40 something with 3 kids and a wife and a full time job, moving with just 4 weeks notice is likely to be a little disruptive (especially in tight rental markets) This risk is real (very real) and every bit as debilitating as the risk of defaulting on a mortgage, but it’s not mentioned anywhere and is far more likely to occur especially given the financially stretched position that many landlords find themselves in.
I’ve known families that were forced to move 3 times in the space of 5 years. Every move was made because the landlord wanted to maximize his/her financial position without a moments thought given to the lives of this family.
IMHO there are no rational limits to house prices until renting is a viable alternative, that means the first step is tenant rights writ large…very large.
Renting needs to be seen by everyone as a viable low risk alternative to home ownership. At the moment renting is definitely the high risk path.
UPDATE … New Zealand housing: Dangerously high multiple lending days are over …
Almost two thirds of home owners face mortgage rate rises in 2022 … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/113975/home-loan-borrowers-have-learned-take-out-longer-fixed-rate-mortgage
Equifax reports that overall credit demand fell about -35% in Auckland and Wellington in the December quarter of 2021 from a booming Q4 in 2020. They see some regional shifts as indicating new responses by consumers … Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/113976/equifax-reports-overall-credit-demand-fell-about-35-auckland-and-wellington-december
3.5 times gross annual was the going rate when I first bought a place (80’s)
But rates on my mortgage went to just under 17% and that was pretty painful.
Fitzsimons Republic
“Keating blasts new republic proposal as dangerous ‘US-style presidency”
“The difficulty is how to actually manage that kind of election so that you don’t end up with something that is run and funded by politicians, or a situation where the candidate needs to be rich,”
The left hate the monarchy, and will put us in harms way to get rid of it. Do not trust them.
The one where 2/3 of politicians pick the head of state failed in the 1999 referendum. Elected by popular vote would be interesting if Queen Elizabeth is placed on the ticket : she’ll get elected easily.
Like the ‘Joker’ saga with the visa, it is nothing but a distraction from the disaster of COVID mess.
The Queen is our representative to the house of our Lord Jesus Christ!
And lo, who hath cast Prince Andrew out?
Geez, what a c#nt act.
https://mobile.twitter.com/QLDLabor/status/1481595817513209861
That’s exactly how Mugabe ran Zimbabwe to the ground.
That’s a good analogy.
+1 only to be expected of the dictator we had to have?
Da fark did they even want them for, narrow gauge sleepers? I’d rather a good Liberal Nationalist government had them to use as they see best.
The LNP the sanctity of property party …. lmmao …
Hillsong comes first.
+1
Personal responsibility for some. Collective f’wittery for others.
Double c#nt act considering it is both taking RATs from someone else and they were to keep an essential service going.
Wonder what the coal bosses will say when the coal trains come to a stop?
It’s so wide spread, the question is where are they going? Anyone out there know?
If your company or organization has had RATs “requisitioned”, what industry are you in?
It’s happening everywhere. It’s Fkn outrageous.
Even some very big LNP donor companies have had their RATs for essential workers, “requisitioned”.
Complete breakdown of governance.
Now I’m really, really angry. That is low. Thieving mongrel.
No payment apparently. Might just be an administrative oversight…
Sanctity of Contracts tribe does daylight robbery and does not bat an eye …. go figure …
“He hasn’t visited his family since Melbourne’s [first] lockdown and, of course, I need to be wise by letting him go,” Mr Sanusi said.
When your boss lets you have holidays after 2 years, you should feel grateful.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-13/restaurants-staff-shortages-poaching-workers-wage-increases/100751964
Maybe restaurant owners could use some of the money they were skimming off the top of wages for the last decade to help them through?
https://www.icc-cricket.com/news/2446181
“Khawaja has an exceptional record opening the batting in Test cricket, making 484 runs at 96.80 in seven innings, including two centuries and two fifties.”
Really, there could be an OAM waiting for him at the end of this test series. Or a knighthood if the Queen has had time to follow the series and wants to keep throwing her weight around like she did with
HRHAndy today.What I don’t get is how it has all gotten this far. I think our Queen is loosing her grip. Surely in the old days that young party bird would have disappeared long ago. And in the real old days it wouldn’t have even been a secret, she would have been made an example of.
So your definition of “old days” is 2005?
Historically correct and you did not even have to be a Royal. Good Christian husbands and wives that like to play with their servants, only for them to fall with child, regularly were falsely accused of sex outside the boundaries of marriage and hence a crime against the church and its flock. These servants were then made to stand in front of the congregation whilst charges were laid against them and then made to stand in the church doorway as the congregation existed – for a more personal dressing down. Then on top of all that cast aside from the community and thrown out from their employment all for doing what their masters demanded of them.
One can only think of the excitement the masters experienced in shopping[tm] for a new night time toy … younger, untouched, a new game ….
This one’s for you Chris. I note the author used the same satellite series that I posted yesterday that showed showed last year to be cooler than 1998.Note how the NASA chart has erased it.
thanks – keep posting this stuff, its fun to delete…
SBS onto it:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/retailers-claim-the-australian-government-is-seizing-covid-19-rats-they-ve-ordered
Send any experience of ‘requisitioned stock’ to The Guardian. Obviously not going to get far with Ninefax or the other lot.
Thankfully Gerry’s supply is fine and you’ll be able to get tests at fine medical establishments like Harvey Norman, Bunnings, KFC, Macca’s, Fox Trucking Depots, Channel 7 and 9 studios, the big four banking retail outlets etc just not sh1tty little disease ridden village chemists (unless they are part of a large chain of course).
Thanks for that, Parody Boi.
Scummo is redirecting them for free use at Hillsong orgies?:
https://happymag.tv/hillsong-rats/
Covid update …
Dr John Campbells latest excellent talk …
US hospital concerns … Dr John Campbell … Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1R09yIKqq4
https://www.youtube.com/c/Campbellteaching
From first link and accurate in describing why the response is so shambolic –
nixy pixy
1 hour ago
There is another issue in the US, that I don’t hear much about. Over the years we have closed down more hospitals than have been opened, despite the population growth. We have operated with the bare minimum needed for normal times, with comorbidities factored in, and this was a disaster waiting to happen.
So firstly you have the EMH privatize, incentivize, efficiencies, defund public anything, sell public assets, feed the unwashed slow poison, all whilst stressing everyone out endlessly [bad for health] in personally paying for everything which the costs that just keeps going up and up with sharing/gig jobs without any long term job prospects.
So its hardly a big surprise after knowledge has been corrupted, public institutions whiteanted, and bootstrapping the thin gruel everyone gets … but don’t worry too much Hugh … all the billionaires are doing great and will come out better than ever …
Australia’s Economic Complexity Index
I’m certain that all regular readers are aware of my fixation with this Index, I’m personally taking a deep dive into the underlying metrics / measurements (that make up the complexity Index) and attempting to cross correlate Index outcomes with our Education system outcomes and student choices.
It’s no secret that high PISA scores (Global education Index) correspond to improving Economic Complexity Index scores, but the flip side of this equation is that worsening PISA scores (education system outcomes) also correlate to worsening Economic Complexity Index scores.
Australia is a good example of falling PISA scores corresponding to falling Economic Complexity Index scores, but what I’m finding even more interesting is the correlation between the course choices which high school students make (during their HS education) and corresponding changes in forward looking components of the complexity index. To be expected, I guess, but alarming all the same
My question is, are others interested in tagging along on this data driven journey? I get the feeling that this fixation is just my shtick, but I thought I’d ask anyway.
Looking forward to your findings!
Sorry can’t offer much help.
Sounds very interesting. Would love to see some analysis.
Looks like there’s limited interest so I will probably just try to share interesting data sets.
Do you guys have access to Matlab/Simulink and are you familiar with applying Bayesian Inference methods in a multivariate data space.
Nup, sorry.
What do you mean by “corresponding changes in forward looking components of the complexity index”?
There’s a lot more to the Economic Complexity Index then just the final number, to understand some of the constitutent elements check out
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/glossary
Complexity Outlook Index
and
Opportunity Gain
There are also many extensions to the complexity Index that are being explored by different groups. Clearly Australia is an outlier, from an education and capability perspective we don’t belong beside countries like Peru and Mongolia. Something is wrong when the Index puts us there.
Personally I’m more interested in calculating the “Rate of Change of capability” as opposed to actually measuring just the capability. In many ways understanding “change” and how countries respond provides a more accurate picture of the future then just trying to compute their capability.
Mo Farah
https://www.gq.com/story/mohamed-salah-february-cover-profile
As a Liverpool fan (so biased I know) I actually think Mo Salah would be about the best footballer in the world at the moment
I am pretty disillusioned with the hyperprofessional game so haven’t kept up, but I think my boys who know everything about football would agree with you.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/russia-says-talks-with-nato-over-ukraine-are-hitting-a-dead-end
Putin threating to put troops on Cuba
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-14/us-supreme-court-blocks-biden-workplace-covid-vaccine-mandate/100755854
Liberty! Inequality! Hostility!
Nice choice of Art Work Chris! Albert Tucker (Thumbnail for this post). 😀
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59984380
MI5 warning over ‘Chinese agent’ in Parliament