Links 12 January 2022

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Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Supply-Chain Crisis? What Supply-Chain Crisis? … Bloomberg

    Delays in shipping and delivery in the U.S. have more to do with strong demand than with strains in the global system. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Wary Global Bond Markets Brace for the Supply Floodgates to Open … Bloomberg

    … concluding …

    … Here’s how the supply dynamic shakes out in the world’s major economies, ordered by market size:

    • The U.S. will see the biggest drop in net government issuance as the $22 trillion market’s expansion peaks, but it will also see the largest reduction in central bank easing. The Fed will shift from 2021’s $960 billion of Treasuries purchases to about $60 billion of buying and then run down its balance sheet by about $300 billion or more, starting in July, Jersey estimates.

    • The euro zone is likely to see effective supply rise 100 billion euros ($113 billion), partly as the ECB gradually trims bond buying, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Huw Worthington. France, Italy and Spain will all need to rely on sizable purchases by investors. That could place extra stresses on those markets relative to Germany, where net supply is expected to shrink.

    • Japan’s available bonds will ease down as a slight uptick in redemptions brings down net government issuance and the BOJ defends its target for 10-year yields.

    • U.K. issuance will drop, but investors will face an increased burden after Bank of England ended its QE program in December

    • Canada will see a surge in net supply as the Bank of Canada moves to reduce its balance sheet fairly rapidly following the decision in October to end asset purchases, according to Angelo Manolatos, a senior associate analyst for BI.

    • Australia will experience an unprecedented surge in supply to private investors, as the Reserve Bank of Australia plans to gradually end purchases after snapping up about three bonds for every one the government added to the market in 2021. That means about A$76 billion ($55 billion) more bonds will be available to investors this year, according to Bloomberg Economics’ James McIntyre, the most for any year outside 2020’s pandemic-induced surge. Effective supply shrank A$128 billion last year.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Goldman Slashes China GDP Forecast As CCP Locks Down 20 Million To Fight Omicron Wave … Zerohedge

    Millions more Chinese people ordered into lockdown to fight Covid outbreaks … The Guardian

    China’s rising Omicron cases cause further lockdowns and flight cancellations, with Lunar New Year and the Beijing Winter Olympics just around the corner … ABC News

  3. Denmark sitrep:

    The final/last omikron-report came out on Friday 7th:

    – omikron is now 95%+ and cases remain non-rising (though high of course)
    – main point to highlight remains table 4: for all >12yo, cases vs. vax status (n=57,000 cases)
    – over 90% of cases are vaccinated cases, while population vax rate is only 82%
    – the clear driver are the only-2x vaccinated, who seem to be nearly 2x as likely as the unvaxxed to contract omikron.

    Here is also the pre-print that is making the rounds based on Danish data, that shows the the declining vax effectiveness over time for the 2 mRNA vaccines:

    – main point is figure 1:
    – for delta the effectiveness wanes, but remains >50% up to 6months
    – for omikron the effectiveness goes to -40% (moderna) & -80% (Pfizer) after 3months, i.e. you are more likely than an unvaccinated person to get infected. So not just not that protective, actually counter-protective.

    • Isn’t the thrust of the article in medrxiv, acknowledging that double-vax has waning efficacy irt Omicron, that boosters should be promoted, as:

      VE increased to 75.5% (56.1 to 86.3%) two weeks after booster vaccination using unvaccinated individuals as comparison.

      Also, that negative efficacy as indicated may have a basis in social circumstances?

      The negative estimates in the final period arguably suggest different behaviour and/or exposure patterns in the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts causing underestimation of the VE. This was likely the result of Omicron spreading rapidly initially through single (super-spreading) events causing many infections among young, vaccinated individuals

      Leading them to conclude:

      Our study contributes to emerging evidence that BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 primary vaccine protection against Omicron decreases quickly over time with booster vaccination offering a significant increase in protection. In light of the exponential rise in Omicron cases, these findings highlight the need for massive rollout of vaccinations and booster vaccinations.

  4. The misunderstood—and misrepresented—Zero COVID policy in China
    A scientist
    13 December 2021

    This analysis of China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been submitted as a contribution to the WSWS Global Workers’ Inquest into the COVID-19 Pandemic. The WSWS is respecting a request that the author’s identity not be publicly disclosed.


    One of the most striking facts about the pandemic is that China, the country from which SARS-CoV-2 first emerged, has suffered very few cases. Since April 2020, the United States has detected nearly 50 million cases, but China, with four times the population, has detected just over 10,000.

    The second type of reaction is to paint China as a draconian hellscape, in which the citizens live under a constant state of lockdown and siege. This is the approach taken recently by the New York Times in an article titled, “Near-Daily Covid Tests, Sleeping in Classrooms: Life in Covid-Zero China.” The article focuses on one small (by Chinese standards) city on the border of Myanmar. The picture it paints is grim:

    [T]he residents of Ruili — a lush, subtropical city of about 270,000 people before the pandemic — are facing the extreme and harsh reality of living under a “Zero Covid” policy when even a single case is found.

    The article concludes with a chilling statement by a resident of Ruili: “‘The ordinary people,’ [Li] sighed, ‘have no way to live.’”

    Yet Ruili is one city with 270,000 residents in a country of 1.4 billion people. Is Ruili truly representative of “life in Covid-Zero China”? The direct answer is that Ruili is an extreme outlier in China: It sits directly on the border of a region of Myanmar controlled by an armed rebel group and is known as a center of cross-border smuggling. Smugglers carry not only illegal goods into Ruili, but, from time to time, the virus as well. Why, then, did two New York Times reporters (stationed in Hong Kong and Beijing), focus their article on this far-flung town?
    Map of China. Ruili is a small city on the border of Myanmar, which The New York Times presents as representative of life in “Covid-Zero China.”

    The answer is that the New York Times focuses on Ruili precisely because it is not representative of the situation in the vast majority of China. The Times’ coverage largely ignores the experience of people in the vast majority of China, including in major cities many times the size of Ruili (270,000 people), such as Shanghai (25 million people), Beijing (22 million people) and Guangzhou (19 million people).

    What, then, is life like in the vast majority of “Covid-Zero China”? What measures are used to maintain zero, or close to zero, cases in the country? – snip

    The rub as I see it … is the misinformation that has been trotted out for almost 2 years and currently doubled down on during 3rd wave and how that plays out when the 4th wave hits …

        • Sure. Lockdowns are not compatible with liberal society, and have not been effective. Zero covid is a defunct ideology bordering on a cult and only the most repressive regimes are clinging to it.

        • Actually the freedom and liberty driven policy is ideology before science and zero the scientific policy. Read comprehension a problem for you. Look at the numbers and how it relates to all outcomes, plus freedom’s for the most.

          • Nothing scientific about gulags. Lockdowns don’t work. Chinese lie to save face, gullible communists in the West drink it up.

          • I’m not compelled by your personal feelings/opinions … you have to prove it. On the other hand we can clearly see the dysfunction in the U.S. and U.K. and now our own shores. China’s population is enjoying more freedoms and liberties at the moment than the aforementioned all whilst preserving capital because the state is not subservient to the oligarchical class.

            Lmmao is Eisenhower a commie in your doctrinaire belief system.

          • There’d be no debate at all in China skippy, you’d just get your door sealed with concrete or wake up to find the stairs removed from the fire escape in your building, or be up all night in the freezing cold waiting to get your negative test so your social passport is revalidated and you can go to work or buy food the next day. If the concept of freedom so perturbs you, imagine you’re already living in Utopian China and you can’t criticise the local authorities or political structures without fear for the safety of yourself of your family. Communism. Just for you. I can’t see a downside.

          • Again you resort to hyperbole and take a small percentage of the entire population and ignore the all the rest because it – fits – the narrative your peddling. Same as was done per se with the public shaming done in the same city which overlooked the fact that the smugglers were jeopardizing everyone’s freedoms by introducing people into the city which might carry covid for personal gain.

            You completely ignore the simple fact that the over all population has greater freedoms because of the policies to keep people from being – infected in the first place – as well worn medical science and history shows and not some cockamamie ideological supposition created out of whole cloth. I mean look at all the other countries right now that are falling apart, at so many levels, just to appease the wants and needs of the wealthiest in society over everything else.

          • Come on skip, smugglers? What a convenient dog for the Chinese to kick for a failed policy. I wonder if that could also explain the outbreak at the Belgian Antarctic station in December. I heard on the Australian state news tonight that Xi is currently estimated to have 20 million of his subjects imprisoned, all for the grievous crime of having viral RNA detected on their persons.

          • non sequitur

            BTW if you really want to see some inflation, which is your camps obsession, just hope omni gets loose there.

            Have a care using terms like imprisonment when the U.S. has dominate market share in the for profit prison industry globally, police incentivized to lock up people, and then exploited as 3rd world labour for big corporations.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Oh FFS!
    “I’m sick of being abused and used by corporations,” – what, because your employer just informed you of your sick leave rights, ie, if you don’t have any left (probably because you’re a sickie bludger, who actually ever uses all their sick leave?) you need to use holiday pay or unpaid leave (that’s nice)?

    The problem is government support! Get rid of all the commie sh1t turning people into bludgers. Starvation will get them working again. Oh, and tax WFH solidly out of existence!

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Please don’t push the anti vax comments onto others who are not like you…..BINGO.
      You’re the only one that got it.

      • Thanks booma, comment was in good faith. You’re an extreme outlier living a life of extreme physical fitness giving you capacity to endure illness. It would be injustice if you were brought undone not be a shark or thirty tonne truck but a pesky virus – i.e. you should still have the vaccinations – but at least you can still adopt the remaining elements in the suite of virus defences and life should continue pretty much as normal; your business type (complimented by amazing engineering skills) works very well in this scenario too.

  6. desmodromicMEMBER

    Last night I was talking to friends working in pharmacy and medicine, the anti-vaxxers are booking appointments and not showing up. Thus, wasting time of stretched health workers as well as wasting vaccine. A nation of pissants.

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So, how many people are faking having Covid just to get out of sh1t meaning how many of the self reporting RATs are bullsh1t? Force people back to work now!

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Or are claiming to be a close contact so they have to isolate. At this rate, you can have a perpetual summer holiday. “Sorry, can’t come to work as I have to isolate for another 10 days because my Grandma got Covid”.

        • Do you have the same problem with people being forced out of work indefinitely for exercising their right not to take the experimental jabs?

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Yes it is. And for its efforts it got booted off Google Ads and Twitter for the crime of reporting on the Wuhan Lab Leak theory. Its still being de-platformed in the Google search algorithm so that news articles on its site dont show up in search results (or are buried so far down nobody sees them). You have to use Duck Duck Go to find ZH articles.

      • Ridged Ideological wingnuts that used to go all HAARP,Contrails, Anti AGW, Gold will reach 100K or more, Illuminati, and a cornucopia of other whacked out stuff …. Ranoid fan boys like the Debra Harry revival tour when she still had nanna gut audience look … BTW is Cog Dis still running over his kids toys in the lawn with the snow blower when he has a rage attack – ????