Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ global economist, looks inflationary drivers in a global context, and concludes that while inflation is set to subside across most G10 economies in 2H22, it will likely remain structurally higher—to the tune of an average 0.5pp above the pre-pandemic level—in the years ahead:
The inflation debate this year has centered on many dichotomies: persistent vs. transitory, supply vs. demand, and global vs. local. Although these dichotomies oversimplify the discussion, they provide a helpful framework for summarizing the current state of inflation and our inflation forecasts to levels moderately above 2% by the end of 2022.
Q: How global has the surge in inflation been in 2021?