Daily iron ore price update (metal mountain)

The ferrous complex boomed on December 7, 2021 as everything roared on new stimmies. Paper flamed out overnight but this looks like a typically maniacal bear market rally so it could easily go further:

However, under the surface, the setup remains dire. China imported nearly 105mt of iron ore in November:

But the rolling annual number is falling fast and, moreover, all that extra ore is piling up in a metal mountain:

Note that we have not seen a jump in stocks at this speed since 2015 and what comes next is destocking along with price falls during the next seasonal hiccup which happens to coincide with the end of winter and falling coal prices plus EAF resumption.

The metal mountain is already the largest ever in terms of days of use:

And steel inventories are high as well:

In 2015 we had a very similar story with RRR cuts amid a crashing property market and nothing could stop the iron ore price rout.

I expect a 2022 repeat.

Houses and Holes
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