Arctic warming faster and Antarctic icesheets near collapse

After the abject failure of COP26, two startling reports have come out of the most recent earth sciences summit. First, the Arctic is actually warming FOUR times as fast, and secondly, one of the biggest glaciers in Antarctica is likely to shatter very soon.

Fuzzy good feelings below from CNBC on the latter:

An ice shelf holding a critical glacier in Antarctica could shatter within the next five years, scientists warned on Monday during an American Geophysical Union meeting.

The Thwaites Glacier is a Florida-sized sheet that’s already responsible for about 4% of global annual sea level rise as it slowly melts into the ocean. But the glacier sits on an ice shelf vulnerable to failing due to newly detected fissures on its surface and a major fracture across the entire shelf, according to satellite images.

Hotter ocean temperatures, fueled in part by human-caused climate change, are eroding the eastern ice shelf. If the shelf breaks apart, the glacier’s contribution to sea level rise could eventually increase by as much as 25%, the scientists said.

The cracks in the Antarctic ice shelf are similar to those in a car windshield, where a slowly growing crack reveals that the windshield is weak and a slight bump to the vehicle could prompt the windshield to immediately break apart into hundreds of pieces of glass, according to Oregon State University glaciologist Erin Pettit.

During the meeting, the scientists said they’ve targeted the weak and strong parts of the shelf and concluded that fractures will take a “zig-zag” pathway through the ice and ultimately cause the shelf to break in as little as five years.

Global sea levels will rise two to six feet by 2100 on the current trajectory, driven mainly by melting in Greenland and Antarctica, according to NASA satellite data. However, scientists have warned that projections underestimate the impact of climate change on sea level rise.

“We are already on track for sea level rise in the next several decades that will impact coastal communities worldwide,” Pettit said. “We can’t reverse this sea level rise, so we need to consider how to mitigate it and protect our coastal communities now.”

While at the top of the world, researchers say the Arctic is warming way faster than first thought. From Science:

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. But that figure, found in scientific studiesadvocacy reports, the popular press, and even the 2021 U.N. climate assessment, is incorrect, obscuring the true toll of global warming on the north, a team of climate scientists reports this week. In fact, the researchers say, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average.

“Everybody knows [the Arctic] is a canary when it comes to climate change,” says Peter Jacobs, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who presented the work on 13 December at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union. “Yet we’re misreporting it by a factor of two. Which is just bananas.”

The researchers found Arctic warming has been underestimated for a couple of reasons. One is climate scientists’ tendency to chop each hemisphere into thirds and label the area above 60°N as the “Arctic”—an area that would include, for example, most of Scandinavia. But the true definition of the Arctic is defined by Earth’s tilt. And, as has been known for centuries, the Arctic Circle is a line starting at 66.6°N. When researchers lump in the lower latitudes, “you’re diluting the amount of Arctic warming you’re getting,” Jacobs says. “That is not a trivial thing.”

The other difference is the choice of time periods over which the warming rate is calculated. Jacobs and his colleagues focused on the past 30 years, when a linear warming trend emerged for the Arctic. Analyses that look at longer term trends see less divergence between the Arctic and the world. That’s because before 1990, the Arctic’s temperatures fluctuated, and even cooled for decades because of air pollution, including light-blocking sulfate aerosols that swept in from the northern midlatitudes, says Mark England, a climate scientist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who is unaffiliated with the new work. As the world moves off fossil fuels and curbs pollution, he says, “this scenario is not going to repeat itself again.”

Luckily we have “leaders” in government who only understand linear consequences and not multi variate problems like climate change, and still want to dig fossil fuels out of the ground even when the evidence is so clear, you could drink it. And there will be plenty of that to drink in the years to come, as sea levels rise and wipe out most of our Pacific neighbours.

For a bit of perspective, check out Jonathan Pie at COP26:

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      That is right – Every scientific organisation on the planet is wrong? A moron on the internet posts an out of context picture and somehow thinks it has any baring on the fact that the earth is warming and that the humans are responsible for most of it.

        • Even StevenMEMBER

          It is entertaining to read some of the predictions, but given the thousands of predictions that have been made on both sides of the fence, it is not hard to come up with hundreds that have been wrong. Equally, one could set up a site which showed all the predictions that HAD turned out to be correct.

          Even if there is a chance that it is man-made, then the downside is unthinkable. We don’t need to be SURE of the science to warrant taking action.

          • Looking at those scientists warning about Omicron, end of the world ending kind of stuff… as it turns out, as dangerous as the annual flu, or far less!

      • That is right – Every scientific organisation on the planet is wrong?

        Not just that, every military and insurer as well.

        It’s actually quite a struggle to find people who believe climate change isn’t real, which is why they all cross-reference each other to try and look sciencey.

        • It’s actually quite a struggle to find people who believe climate change isn’t real,

          Au contraire, start with comments here, head to the Daily Smelly, the Oz, look at the Nationals….easy peasy

    • “Was warmer for the romans.”
      Picking temps from one spot on the globe over time does not provide a representation of the the global picture. Plenty of climate modelling showing this.

  1. They won’t tell you that last time it was warm the sarahar desert was a rain forest. Why is global warming always bad

    • Precipitations are increasing in the Sahara, Earth is getting greener almost everywhere thanks to CO2 fertilization.I want the cretaceous back

  2. I vote Col’s comment as the absolutely dumbest CC comment EVER.

    Admit it Chris, you knew this would happen!

        • Ok Anders here are the things
          First, relatively its not our problem, Europe are worried about the trans Atlantic current being disrupted and also halve their continent going under water with a slight rise in water, the Usa will loose most of Florida and chinas is worried about flooding rains which have brought down many a dynasty in the past. What are we worried about? The driest continent getting dryer? Not likely.
          Second there is nothing we can do annyway as even when we slow our coal production, then china just increases theirs as the have done in the last few months by 1 million tonnes a day. Get that through your head. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO TO HELP THE PROBLEM except…..
          Thirdly tesla has done more than any organisation for the world to go carbon neutral. Do you own any stock in tesla. Why not. Put you money where your mouth is. Me, I own sheep loads of tesla, so when I get lectured about climate change by those who don’t understand the problem or the way out I resort to trolling.

          • Like I said, dumbest comment and getting dumber by the second. What have CSIRO and the other CC experts had to say about what Australia faces with the increase in temp? You’re a moron, I have no doubt Dunning-Kruger had you in mind.

          • Don’t worry about the CSIRO big fella. Look at Chinas predictions for Australia. The have us getting at least 10 percent more rain overall and upto 30 percent extra rain in the driest part. The problem is that you only seem to consume the information that is spoon feed to you and don’t go out and look for other sources. Education your self buddy.
            I believe you should back self interest and its in the CSIRO interest to say climate change all bad. There are way too many variables for anyone to know what happens if the global temperature rises 1 degree and anyone who thinks they know is a perfect example of dunning Kruger. Game set match good night buddy I hope I was able to teach you something tonight.

          • lolololol you’re a class act, Col. You deny CC science but when it suits your argument (Aust will be better off) you accept alleged Chinese scientists views on CC impact on Australia. It truly is amazing how you can twist and turn like that, you must have done gymnastics as a kid?

  3. Sea levels have been rising almost linearly (slight increase since 80s/satellites measurement) since the end of the little ice age 1850. Nothing Interesting.

    • I crossed the Qld border last night and today, inside supermarkets and malls, around 5% of people tops were wearing masks.

      • Does wearing a mask slow the rise in sea levels? I bet you can’t (yet) cite a peer reviewed paper on that relationship.

  4. The day the glacier breaks off, that is the day the fossil fuel industry faces justice. I predict not the end of days but the end of many cartels and this is why the rush is on to make hay while the sun shines.

      • Most people don’t understand and you do? Mate the sea level rising is like the boogie man to child, a story to scare people. They have been talking about the oceans rising for as long a I can remember. Last time I looked st kinda pier still stands above water 25 years after I was first time I heard the seas were going to rise.
        I look at peoples actions before I believe what they say. Tell me which government in the world has moved their cities away from the sea because they are worried the ocean will rise. stop this Boogie man scaremongering, people want to clean up the environment anyway and don’t need to be scared onto it.

  5. The pacific islands on average all rose by 75%.
    Yes the earth moves up & down as well.
    Humans have reclaimed from the oceans an area equivalent to the size of Hungary in the last century.
    Factually speaking the oceans have shrunk.
    And the world has never been as fertile of as productive as in recent human history / with food production for the first time – overtaking & surpassing human population growth.
    As the Arctic, Antarctic, glacial ice melts, it eventually enters the oceans, reducing the eons of poisonous alkalinization of the oceans, invigorates all ocean life.

    That water layer also evaporates – putting more water back into the air that falls as rain / or as snow back onto the polar ice caps..

    And our whole world becomes a little more humid, benevolent, lush and fertile.
    The rivers of airborne water strengthen and spread life giving water to the parched deserts & invigorating nature fauna & flora across Earth.

    For the Gaia believers.
    Was this always nature’s mission?
    For Earth to evolve a (human) life form that could develop technology that would have a usefulness for fossil fuel and so dig up, extract the fossilised carbon oil gas & then burn it to release the life giving Co2 – the miracle ingredient for all earthly life & nature.

    • You smoking crack or is this satire?

      You think human evolution stopped in the 18th century when we
      discovery coal and that is it.. meaning of life right there!

      ..so humanity will just sit back watch TV..

      In simplified terms its about balance, your CO2 goodness is
      one of the most common ways to commit suicide because it is
      actually deadly in concentrations.

      So yes.. more is not better on this one!

      • 75% of the pacific islands had an increased land mass – yes the earth’s crust / islands / volcanoes etc do go up & down.
        University of Auckland study
        “The majority of islands in these nations has either got larger or stayed similar in size”. Dr Kench said only 10 per cent of islands captured in the study had gotten smaller in size. (Mostly archaic sinking volcano atolls)

        Tuvalu – much cited, using climate alarmism in their grievance compensation agenda, is increasing in size.
        “The Pacific nation of Tuvalu—long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels—is actually growing in size, new research shows.
        The University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery. It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent.”

        Earths land area has increased by the size of Hungary in the last century in both natural earth crust uprisings or human reclamation.

        Co2 v the Oceans
        The oceans are the primary Co2 absorption sink, plus terrestrial Fauna & flora.

        Volume of the earths oceans
        1,335,000,000 cubic kilometers / each cubic kilometre of ocean sea water is bit more than a billion tonnes so 1.367 billion billion tonnes. 1,367,000,0000,000,000,000 tonnes.

        Volume of all extractable fossil carbon (coal, shale, oil, gas) 38 billion tonnes or 38,000,0000,000 tonnes.
        All the accessible fossil fuel carbon now Co2 divided into the scale of our oceans.. = 0.27% or 2 tenths of FA..

        2 tenths of FA Co2 that is easily & very quickly absorbed by the oceans & terrestrial fauna & flora – hungrily devouring the rare traces of life creating & life giving Co2.

        To put it in simple terms for the climate nutters.
        If all the earth’s oceans were an Olympic size swimming pool..
        Then all the potential accessible fossil carbon would be in relative size the equivalent of a cigarette packet.
        Each year about half a matchhead of fossil Carbon is extracted, burnt & released as co2.

        Even if humans dug up every bit of accessible coal, shale, oil & gas & burnt it all in one day – releasing all the fossil accessible co2..

        Nothing would happen.
        The oceans would devour it & bloom.
        The land fauna & flora would bloom.
        There just isn’t enough fossil Co2 to ever make a difference to the vast oceans.
        The rare vital life giving Co2.
        The more the better for all life on earth
        Humans managing the planet. Digging up the real solar energy / the entrapped carbon from previous life & sunlight – and now releasing that life giving solar powered energy & rare life giving co2 to reinvigorate the planet.
        To reverse the eons old poisonous atrophy & alkalinization of our oceans.
        To reinvigorate the ocean / land air water columns & bring water rain snow and Co2 – as the essential ingredients to life on earth.

    • Natures real test is to see whether we’ll be the exception to Fermi’s paradox or join the countless other sub-intelligent species who couldn’t climb out of their gravity well before killing themselves

      • The real test is human gullibility and cognitive dissonance.
        The sea levels have been gradually rising since the end of the last ice age & that very gradual increase much the same. Sea Ice (Artic) does not raise the sea level when melted. Glacier and Antartica land locked ice (snow or precipitation driven) has actually increased overall. It would take tens of years for the Greenland ice sheet or Antartica land based ice to melt – and the tiny fraction of coal oil & gas that humans dig up & burn would be long exhausted by then.

        The sun cycle & solar radiation is the main determinant in earth temperature & ocean thermal expansion.
        Again any change taking thousands of years.

        An arguable point is that if the earth’s atmosphere is now less polluted from reduced fossil fuels – does that creates a warmer earth? . And as the earth warms increased evaporation & different types of cloud cover then have a mitigation (high reflective cloud) or enhancing (lower thermal insulating) effect.

        The Co2 alarmism is just a replay of the success DuPont & the chemical industry had in ozone layer hole myth.

        DuPont patent monopoly on Freon was about to expire.

        So they created new more complex alternatives they patented & set about with corrupted scientists (fact) & fake analysis to get the older safer CFC’s banned & the world forced onto their new proprietary alternatives.

        Over a naturally occurring ozone hole in the polar regime that continues to this day much the same.

        “Honeywell, DuPont and Arkema filed 107 patents on the production and use of HFOs in the refrigeration and air-conditioning sector (RAC). The highest number of patents was filed during the 2008-10 period, coinciding with the start of discussions under the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs’

        Now see that is human gullibility.
        👉🏾There is your Fermi’s paradox.
        Where the evidence and fact doesn’t support the belief and hysteria.
        Industry & corrupted scientists who used the pagan nature fear god of ‘climate change’ to play human gullibility & retain their monopoly.

        • “The real test is human gullibility and cognitive dissonance.”

          At first I thought you’d had a sudden awaking and were talking about yourself. While you’re looking in the mirror look up Dunning-Kruger.

          • Ah & there you go.
            A fairly typical climate alarmist delusional response.
            Can’t reply to facts or face reality, so it’s personal attack.
            Dunning Kruger?
            You demonstrate that exactly.
            The bias of a low ed / intellectually impaired / brainwashed person to overestimate their own opinion & bias – incapable of rational reasoning & logic even when facts are presented.

  6. Where’s Djenka to tell us it’s the anomaly in the magnetic field above the South Atlantic.
    I’ll give you one guess as to why the fossil fuel industry isn’t throwing money into research around that hypothesis. Something that could get them completely off the hook.

  7. Narapoia451MEMBER

    The amount of stupid in the comments on any climate change thread here, burns.

    No wonder the covid vaccine threads basically give you cancer.

    No surprise that there’s a lot of overlap between offending posters in each case.