Taiwan war recedes

Lombard with the note:

The recent flurry of geopolitical developments over Taiwan is likely to lead to an even more grinding stalemate rather than an acceleration toward conflict with a Chinese invasion of the island, which we continue to regard as unlikely in the near to mid-term. Despite the recent Pentagon report detailing a PLA military buildup, an amphibious invasion remains logistically taxing and, if successful, would result in a long and costly occupation. Warmer EU-Taiwan relations and a new government in Tokyo are likely to result in a further entrenchment of the status quo, rather than accelerate movement toward an invasion.

A recent marked increase in the number of PLA incursions into Taiwan’s Air-Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) has now subsided. In the past week, the highest daily total was eight, a significant reduction from the high of more than 50 seen in early October.

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