The ferrous complex was mixed on November 5, 2022 as spot hit a new low for the sell-off while steel dead cat bounced and took paper with it:
This is all technical waffle. There is nothing to stop the entire ferrous complex from halving again from here. In fact, expect it to.
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Chinese demand seen through the prism of trade was OK in October with exports at 91.6mt and the rolling annual has flipped negative 1% with much worse ahead:
As you can see, barring a bit of COVID, the Chinese market topped for iron ore topped out in 2017. I expect a long a painfull decline in this chart henceforth.
Steel exports were soft at 4.5mt:
Export tariffs are working for now but ought to come off soon as the global ferrous complex collapses meaning a whole world of super-cheap Chinese steel is right around the corner.
There is nothing to suggest anything but more falls ahead. Steel output remains terrible though maybe lifting as the power outages ease which is very bad news for iron ore if it EAF returning:
And steel demand remains catastrophic:
Onwards and downwards for ferrous prices.