The ferrous market jizzed in its pants on November 23, 2021 as paper rose, paper spent the day limit before sobering last night and steel firmed:
The turn in Chinese stimulus that is underway is so far a lot more modest than the market reaction to it. It will remain that way so long as property market contagion is contained. In other words, the stimulus will only counteract downdrafts in commodity-intensive growth not turn them into growth.
With property sales still tracking at 25% below 2020 and infrastructure debt down 10% plus land sales down by three-quarters, the outlook for steel demand is still terrible.
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