The ferrous complex hung on for grim death on November 8, 2021 as spot firmed, paper was hit overnight and steel fell:
CISA released its late October output numbers for major steel mills and it was, again, unbelievably bad, down nearly 8%:
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The year-on-year collapse is roughly 160mt per annum. From the peak it is 250mt:
As we know, the iron ore market has been afforded some protection by the thermal coal bubble which shut down 120mt of steel recycling:
But as coal crashes and power output normalises over the next quarter, this production will resume and the same amount of production will have to come out of BOF.
Needless to say, as this happens, the steel price will keep falling under pressure from the glut:
Especially since, despite huge output cuts, steel inventories are still too high:
There is nothing ahead here except much more and much deeper price pain for iron ore and coking coal.