More signs energy crunch is easing

US gas prices have pulled back sharply as European prices do. But also because the shale oil rig count is rising at a better clip and gas is going to flow in bulk as it does:

Europe has eased on better weather, via Goldman:

As natural gas markets await more information on how winter weather will realize, which will provide guidance on what price levels are required to balance the market in the next few months, the next near-term catalyst to TTF will be Monday’s (Oct18th) Gazprom capacity booking at Yamal. The 12% sell-off in TTF prices this past Friday (Oct 15th) to $30.16/mmBtu suggests the market has started to price in an expected normalization of Russian flows relative to the low volumes observed thus far this month, which is also base-cased in our balances. While a confirmation of this normalization might trigger another steep sell-off in TTF amid thin liquidity, we believe that TTF prices would likely return to a high-$20s/mmBtu range to continue to incentivize gas-to-oil substitution in power and a degree of industrial demand destruction while winter weather uncertainty lingers. Should NW European weather remain near the 10-year average, we would expect the winter-risk premium in TTFprices to decline further and bring TTF closer to our $17.60/mmBtu base-case winter forecast towards year-end. In contrast, a scenario where Monday’s Yamal bookings disappoint expectations would likely keep TTF at or above $30/mmBtu for the duration of that tightening of pipeline flows, even under average winter weather. This price level range would help preserve the significant level of demand destruction seen this month, which has helped offset most of the drop in Yamal flows thus far.