The ferrous complex was a bit of a mess on October 20, 2021 as spot firmed, paper jumped but steel was hit:
The newsflow this week has been dominated by the iron ore cartel downgrading its output projections. This is poor mining and even poorer economics but, these days, it’s all about control fraud as current management seeks to maximise its own returns at the expense of long-term shareholder value. Still, it is what it is we need to ask if it is material.
As we know, Chinese steel output is down roughly 275mt tonnes annualised from the May peak. About 120mt of that is EAF. So we’ve lost an annual run rate of roughly 150mt of steel and 250mt of iron ore demand since then.