For much of this year, I have argued that the best analogy for markets is the great 2015 deflation. That has played out in Chinese growth and key commodity prices for Australia.
However, more recently, the energy perfect storm has overtaken that metaphor and I have begun making reference to an earlier period. A closer analogy for markets now appears to 2008.
Do I mean a new GFC? No. I mean an energy and inflation bubble and bust so large that it does material damage to global growth.
