Would Melbourne open up with 500 cases a day?

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Denmark on Friday ditched vaccine passports and axed its remaining COVID restrictions after coming “out the other side of the pandemic”:

With no masks in sight, buzzing offices and concerts drawing tens of thousands, Denmark on Friday ditched vaccine passports in nightclubs, ending its last Covid curb.

The vaccine passports were introduced in March 2021 when Copenhagen slowly started easing restrictions.

They were abolished at all venues on September 1, except in nightclubs, where they will be no longer necessary from Friday.

“We are definitely at the forefront in Denmark as we have no restrictions, and we are now on the other side of the pandemic thanks to the vaccination rollout,” Ulrik Orum-Petersen, a promoter at event organiser Live Nation, told AFP.

On Saturday, a sold-out concert in Copenhagen will welcome 50,000 people, a first in Europe…

Denmark’s vaccination campaign has gone swiftly, with 73 per cent of the 5.8 million population fully vaccinated, and 96 per cent of those 65 and older.

“We’re aiming for free movement … What will happen now is that the virus will circulate and it will find the ones who are not vaccinated,” epidemiologist Lone Simonsen told AFP…

“Now the virus is no longer a societal threat, thanks to the vaccine,” said Simonsen, who works at the University of Roskilde.

Denmark’s population is around 5.8 million, making it only slightly larger than Melbourne (5.2 million) and New Zealand (5.1 million).

Denmark was also generating around 500 COVID cases a day on reopening versus Victoria’s 392 cases yesterday:

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Denmark had 121 people in hospital being treated for COVID versus Victoria’s 147 yesterday:

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And Denmark averaged three deaths per day over the past week, versus one death over the entire week in Victoria:

Obviously, the reason why Denmark has fully reopened is because of the nation’s high vaccination rate. As shown below, 74% of the Danish population is fully vaccinated versus just 33% in Australia:

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Nevertheless, the obvious question arises: would the Victorian Government emulate Denmark and fully reopen once a similar vaccination threshold is reached?

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.