The ferrous complex was mixed on August 30, 2021 as spot and paper fell but steel lifted (though that’s a week of price gains):
In news, Andrew Forrest puts the boot into the bears by declaring he “wouldn’t bet against the iron ore price”. I’ll take that bet.
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Nothing has changed from last week when iron ore was crashing. China is still stomping on the property sector that comprises nearly half its steel demand. There is still 60mt of new supply coming on in H2.
My base case is still that China eventually panics and goes for broad stimulus but their determination not to is obvious right now.
This means only that the hard landing in its old economy will need to be very deep before it turns.
$100 by Xmas!