The ferrous complex was mixed on August 16, 2021 as spot edged up, paper fell overnight and steel puked:
The weak Chinese data was alarming for ferrous inputs. The slowdown underway in China is being led by construction and steel output:
On the day, the ferrous market managed to make a play for bad news being good news in the expectation of more stimulus but I don’t think so.
China is caught in a moment of stagflationary pressures and needs to deflate commodity prices. The impulse to reform still looks strong as well.
I still think iron ore is going much lower – $100 and below – before we get a panicked reversal in China.