The ferrous complex was mixed on August 16, 2021 as spot edged up, paper fell overnight and steel puked:
The weak Chinese data was alarming for ferrous inputs. The slowdown underway in China is being led by construction and steel output:
On the day, the ferrous market managed to make a play for bad news being good news in the expectation of more stimulus but I don’t think so.
China is caught in a moment of stagflationary pressures and needs to deflate commodity prices. The impulse to reform still looks strong as well.
I still think iron ore is going much lower – $100 and below – before we get a panicked reversal in China.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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