Covid herd immunity an impossible goal

The UK’s top vaccine boss, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, believes that the idea of achieving ‘herd immunity’ from COVID from high vaccination rates is “mythical” and “not a possibility” with the current Delta variant:

“We know very clearly with coronavirus that this current variant, the Delta variant, will still infect people who have been vaccinated and that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated, at some point, will meet the virus,” Pollard told a session of the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on coronavirus.

He said that while vaccines might “slow the process” of transmission down, they cannot currently stop the spread completely.

“I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals,” he said, predicting the next thing may be “a variant which is perhaps even better at transmitting in vaccinated populations”…

He said the seasonal coronaviruses in circulation will infect people “repeatedly” throughout their lives, typically on average every four or five years…

“Quarter of the UK population will get infected on average every year, what that means is about 45,000 people will be infected every day with theses other coronaviruses”.

Pollard’s testimony came as the percentage of UK adults fully vaccinated hit 75%, yet cases continue to rise at a solid clip:

UK COVID cases

UK daily COVID cases still running hot.

Yet, while vaccination clearly does not stop transmission, it does prevent deaths. This is illustrated clearly in the next chart from the RBA, showing far lower COVID mortality in high vaccination nations:

COVID deaths

COVID deaths far lower in vaccinated nations.

The same clearly applies in the UK, where death rates are down significantly from prior peaks, despite the nation reopening:

UK COVID deaths

UK COVID deaths relatively low.

My prediction is that coronavirus will turn into something akin to the common cold or flu. We’ll all get it repeatedly throughout our lives, but our antibodies will ensure that it is not overly leathal.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    Covid ‘Berejiklian’ a real honour says NSW Premier
    AAP Sydney, 12 Aug 2021 – 0930 AEST

    The decision by WHO and Australian health authorities to rename the Covid strain now loose in Australia after the leader who has done more than any other to further its spread has been greeted with acclaim within the NSW Liberal party, and accepted with humility by Gladys Berejiklian, as effigy sales around Australia launch into overdrive.

    The WHO statement, signed by Head Tadros Adhanom after a marathon sitting of the WHO Presidium, and a standing ovation by representatives from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, was as simple as it was unexpected according to those insiders close to the NSW government.

    ‘In recognition of a leader who not only refused to lock down in the face of overwhelming evidence that locking down is the only way of eliminating a virus, but seeded rancor and dissension amongst her electorate, ignored advice provided by her senior health authorities, and held an entire nation to effective ransom to facilitate vaccinations which won’t stop the spread of the virus. In doing so she has not only set aside public opinion, but has commenced the process of setting aside a number of people permanently. This stance deserves recognition and we have therefore decided that from here on in the Australian variant of Covid shall be officially known as ‘Covid Berejiklian’ .

    On the same night a signed declaration by 50 of Australia’s eminent scientists and epidemiologists added to the national fervor with its own glowing tribute.

    ‘Calling out the army for one suburb, and locking down others 2 and 3 postcodes away while every person between them was carrying on life as normal shows a political bravery hitherto undreamt of. Seeding remote country towns via the jail system, after starving regional health for nearly a decade is a mark of genius. Gladys Berejiklian should be remembered and will be forever. We don’t yet know how Covid originated or came to Australia, but in Australia it is Gladys Berejiklian.’

    Upon hearing of the announcement the NSW leader expressed satisfaction at being able to serve the people of NSW, adding that she was ‘the person in the executive chair at the time’ after an endurance footrub session from an unnamed corruption beneficiary from Wagga Wagga. She added that the new naming of the Covid variant to reflect her immense contribution to the spread of Covid in Australia was an ‘immense honour’

    With the NSW Premier expected to make a formal statement this morning after consulting with the Prime Minister, insiders were highlighting that in many respects the nomination reflected a ‘team effort’ with the Australian Prime Minister. Naathan Purulence of the NSW Torynuff State Branch executive summed up the buoyant mood.

    ‘There’s a real sense of accomplishment here. Not long ago after the Victorians had clamped down yet again and apparently wiped out the virus there, we had to put in the real hard yards. Removalists, the flights to Launceston with the Tullamarine stopover, and the Speewa Punt were about our last bridgeheads for Victoria, Goondoowindi and Hungerford Gate the same for Queensland options , and the for South Australia it was a sole track around Lake Victoria. We were smearing sob stories for dying relatives in Brisbane. That’s how close it was to us having no way to propagate the virus nationally. That was if we could seed it out of Sydney. You look today and it is well on the way to being everywhere – Walgett, Dubbo, Orange, once we are across the Murrumbidgee we are home. No one will be extinguishing it now. That means we are well on the way to forcing people to be vaccinated despite vaccination being about as useful against Covid as a poultice. The next step will be to force open the tourists and migrant gates and import the virus wholesale, and from there, there is no stopping it.’

    Sarah Hand-Stroker from the National Torynuff Executive hailed the work of PM Morrison, without whom none of the spread would have been possible.

    ‘It’s an island continent with closeable borders. Bringing the virus in hasn’t been as easy as it has been made out in the media. We needed repeated cases coming in, and ScoMo delivered. We needed a complete quarantine coq up and he has overseen that too. Handing the whole box and dice to the states without supporting them in any way was genius. The preparation of the public was even better. It takes political courage to hand over the entire national stimulus to the 1% to get their tithe before the public gets it. It takes a certain kind of self-righteous bigotry to put the entire national vaccine mindset into one company, and it requires a pure form of rat cunning to go completely missing from the national narrative whenever there is bad news or to look straight in the camera and lie. But our boy has done it. He should be proud.’

    Equally proud was Mary-Anne Mendola of Apollo Bay Victoria after the sale of her 50% stake in Otway Coast Effigies to the rapidly expanding Geelong and Surf Coast Effigies for $17.3 million. CEO of of Geelong and Surf Coast, Wally Blake, said times ahead were looking very exciting for the consolidating company, with a product pipeline extending well into next year, international investors looking for a piece of the expanding Australian effigy sector, and the public mood suggesting demand would climb from here, on the back of Covid Berejiklian.

    ‘Unbelievable mate. The acquisition of Otway Coast effigies has been a long term ambition. They have always made a quality product – a real rival of ours – a life sized effigy robust enough to be clubbed with a baseball bat and to have darts thrown at it, as well as be spat at by passers by. You know, it will really add some strengths to our effigy lineup. We will of course be adding our pioneering flammable effigy technology to their product range, and exploiting some of their tricks for our product range as well, while exploring synergies and joint marketing opportunities.

    The market is red hot right now. There aren’t many people out there who don’t have some interest in an effigy for hitting or for burning, and ScoMo and Gladys are right at the top of everyone’s wish list. In fact the spittle collector on both effigies has seen demand soar in only a matter of days. We are now running 24/7 and are looking at moving into the old Ford site in Geelong with a view to churning out about 18 thousand effigies a day in the near future. We are also being advised by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan for a New York listing, with Houston based Ewing Public Bile and Venom floating some interesting ideas about us bringing our basic product to the North America market and them working with us to get a broader range of bile and venom into Australian market, because they are seeing a big increase in demand as are we.

    Banco Santander Effigies analyst Joachim-Henri Wilmington Fearnaley said the Australian move was part of a global market seeing effigies really take off in terms of demand.

    ‘The Geelong move is very significant, but we need to remember it is part of a global phenomenon. It may be Gladys and ScoMo in Australia – even though they are exceptionally good and straight out gaslighting the electorate – but elsewhere it is Duterte, Trump, Johnston or Bolsonaro or Macron, and numerous others. This is a global demand surge we are seeing. We have a buy rating on all on all major market plays, simply reflecting that so much of the world hates their elected representation with such intensity that they want to buy an effigy and hit it or burn it, or throw darts at it or even spit on it. We aren’t expecting any downturn in that sentiment for a long time.’

    Deutsche Bank Effigies and Public Hatred analyst Gerg-Rayner Munch was also upbeat for the sector.

    The real transition is when the market reaches close to saturation. When clubbing an effigy doesn’t really take the public where they want to go. At that stage the market moves into a whole new experience and at the moment we are tipping real arms and real attempts to inflict real pain on real elected leaders.

    We are nowhere near there, yet, and I wouldn’t be thinking Australia will be the place to go first, but real public hatred is now abroad and afoot in many lands. It is now a part of the backdrop of social discourse. It is hard to say when and where but we can be sure that someone somewhere will do that little self entitled something which will detonate rage and from there anything is possible. We too have a buy rating on Geelong Effigies, but longer term we are thinking that it will be purchased by a global purveyor of public hatred facilitation aids.’

    • The far right moron luvvy hijack club

      Very witty….a few good laughs there. Cheers

      You should do one of these every eve

    • What’s even funnier than this is that folk believe that ‘elected’ public servants who gave themselves the power to declare dual ‘states of emergency & state of disaster’ with more special powers to take direction from an employed public servant in guise of CMO Chief Medical Officer…(How Chief! It’s as though they’re playing cowboys & injins with covid as the bad guy. Sh00t em all down, down, prices area down, down Coles & Woolies super markets open plus Bunnings and all the Big Box Good Guys and their mates JB How Chief) Why are car parks not littered with bodies of covid victims who ducked out for carton of milk and logo less bag of CC’s …must have been delta free 2 hour shopping window?? [email protected] Pool .. in reality another Holly Wood fantasy:)
      Got off track but I don’t get why folk think public servants on TV at edge of screen talking to the side of screen to inaudible questions put by ‘pressED’ gallery and mimicked for fortunate [email protected] audience by pa$$ing parade of ‘signers’ can STOP Delta Dawn, Alpha male Omega, orobourous snake eating tale, eternity never ending ongoing endless narrative, all the worlds a stage on TV black box cube Saturn the end of the world but not really, all the worlds a stage and punters just watching covid from discomfort if their own or rented homes:)

  2. If these vaccines are as ineffective as the experts now say, would it be a good idea to delay the “vaccine passport” until truly effective vaccines come available?

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      Vaccines ineffective? My understanding is that they are very effective at reducing severity of symptoms. Is there good data saying otherwise (genuine question).

      I think everyone knows vaccines have very little impact on transmissibility.

      • It’s a good point, the efficacy of a vaccine means different things to different people…. even the concept of ‘herd immunity’ the average punter has no idea what that means but will use the term freely.

        Nobody sensible was assuming that vax was going to kill transmission…. just can’t be done with current tools. It’s immunity from any serious (even ideally mild) consequences that we are seeking. The problem is of course, consensus among the experts on even this is hard to come by.

        This was all highly predicable 12 months ago…… at some point we are going to have to stop talking about cases and how does one do that when it’s been the sole focus of the world for so long and there will always be seemingly authoritative voices suggesting otherwise and ready to pounce on even the slightest negative data.

      • Martin Van Buren

        20% of people dying in the UK are double vaccinated – 40% are single dose.

        Lambda is looking like it will be fully vaccine immune – we are looking at absolutely no choice but to permanently shut down totally until this is erradicated.

        Business and government have to get their heads around this idea – they can’t wish it away.

        • Reus's large MEMBER

          At least someone on here gets it, there is a article on nature.com that details how the virus infects cells, it has traits that are common in HIV and hepatitis which had never been seen in any cronavirus before, probs caus it was made in lab, and those traits are what allow it to evade immune response. Whuflu is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

          The ultimate confirmation of that is this line from the article

          “My prediction is that coronavirus will turn into something akin to the common cold or flu. We’ll all get it repeatedly throughout our lives, but our antibodies will ensure that it is not overly leathal.”

          MB is the most reliable contra indicator I have found so far.

          • Anders Andersen

            “…..are common in HIV and hepatitis which had never been seen in any cronavirus before, probs caus it was made in lab,….”

            If your belief that the Chinese made this virus is correct, it shows them to be smart yet fk’ng dumb! Yes, develop a virus which can evade an immune response. How would they expect to win in a situation like that?

        • call me ArtieMEMBER

          Martyn. You are being sucked in to a statistically fallacious idea. For example: if 100% of people in a country are double-vaccinated, then 100% of the cases recorded in that country would be in double-vaccinated people. It’s not a useful measure.
          Better method is to measure the number of cases in the vaccinated population, not the number of vaccinated people in the cases. I’m not sure if I’ve expressed this clearly, but here is a link that does it well:
          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-06/coronacheck-israel-higher-numbers-vaccinated-people-infected/100353540
          Artie

          • Indeed. You also need to account for variables like age. The AZ vaccine for instance gives a 80-90 year old the C19 health risk profile of a 50-60 year old. That’s a massive improvement in terms of hospitalisations and deaths but, its still more than a 20-30 year old without the vaccine.

          • Jumping jack flash

            How about we simply count serious cases, i.e, those who require hospitalisation?

            And then we perform proper triage on hospitalisations, like I’m sure we’re currently putting Old Granny Dot into a bed for a couple of nights just because she feels a bit unwell and is running a temp.

            Hospitalisations seems to be typically 0.1% at most of active cases, if Australia’s stats are anything to go by. I haven’t looked at other countries.

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            And if 100% of the population is vaccinated, and 100% of people with Covid are vaccinated, then that still proves that vaccinated people get Covid. The “statistics” are irrelevant. Vaccination either stops you getting a disease or it doesnt. In this case, it doesnt.

          • “Vaccination either stops you getting a disease or it doesnt.”
            You need to move on from this simplistic thinking. You cant get full immunity in a population from any virus that mutates as frequently as COVID19 or the flu. In those situations vaccination gives you a heightened immune response. The best we can hope for.

      • More remedies to help relieve common cold CC symptoms: Lemon, ginger, garlic, hot water, flat lemonade, vicks vapouring on chest & bowl hot water, towel over head INHALE, eucalyptus oil, tea tree oil, drink plenty of water, Panadol, paracetamol, anti biotic if you’ve let it go Codtal cold & flu, Dimetap, Sudafed, throat lozenges: anticol, buttermenthol, sleep, rest in warm bed, toast & tea, Netflix & no chill or daytime TV if not connected to WWW, few days off work – that’s what sick leave is for. Soldier on ya mugs:)

    • Your chances of landing in hospital are a lot less if vaccinated ( at least 5 times less )…….however a lot of benefits claimed for vaccination are actually leftover from the last lockdown……here are some figures just in from England showing the baseline of hospitalisations for a vaccinated population still taking some precautions. If you want the economy to stay open you need enough precautions as well as vaccinations to keep the hospitals on line

      https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1425525453855600641

      • She could have added ‘8x as many daily Covid deaths as same time last year’ (from 25x as many cases, as she did say, so at current vaccinated rate, deaths per 100 cases being cut by about two thirds).

      • Yeah that’s what I was thinking – the available data are very much a backwards look as the virus keeps virusing.

        • We’ll see just how effective the vaccines really are come winter in Europe and North America.

          Many of the current benefits being ascribed to the vaccines in the UK are likely to be seasonal and due the lag effects of stage 4 lockdowns.

          They have important benefits, but evidence is now mounting that their efficacy is closer to that of the standard flu shot.

          Neoliberal politicians in this country should not be pinning their hopes on jabbing ~70% and then opening the floodgates to the third world.

    • The idea of a vaccine passport was sold on the basis of benefiting others.
      If you can still transmit it when vaccinated then that makes the whole concept pointless other than to remove an individual’s right to choose (as, supposedly, the vaccine only protects that individual).

      • Jumping jack flash

        Agree. Passports/passes/mandates are unnecessary if you relax and don’t look at them through the lenses of panic.

    • Pull the Bandaid

      I’m not sure what a vaccine passport aims to achieve if the vaccinated are as infectious as the unvaccinated. I’m not sure what the vaccinated are so scared and hostile towards the unvaccinated as well because they are no threat to them.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        Do vaccinated people really give a toss about unvaccinated people ?. Being double vacced I couldn’t give a rat’s arse about mixing with unvacced punters unless there were serious health reasons not to do so.

        Seems most pro-vacc punters just want this shitstorm to be over and resume some normality and getting the jab is the only light at the end of the tunnel.

        If you don’t want to get vacced then that’s your choice but we should open up once everyone who wants to get vacced has a chance.

        • Not about care for the person. Like wearing a seat belt . We don’t want you getting serious injury stressing health system and social security when easily preventable. So you don’t want to wear a belt then don’t drive. You don’t want vaccine then don’t sit shoulder to shoulder in a confined space with general public.

          • Frank DrebinMEMBER

            Most of the non-vaccer stance from what I have read is that they won’t take the vaccine but will expect freedom to go about their business.

            I don’t have an issue with that whatsoever as long as it doesn’t stop our economy/society opening up once vaccines have been offered to everyone.

            Up to individuals to manage their own risk levels.

  3. Precisely.

    Same thing with the term “breakthrough infection” – there’s no such thing. The vaccines are doing exactly what the developers said they would.

    “These are non-sterilizing vaccines. Meaning that they do not perfectly prevent infection of the mucosal tissues in the nasopharyngeal region (nose & throat) and upper lung.

    The Covid vaccines work by keeping the virus out of the bloodstream and out of the lower lungs. This prevents Covid pneumonia and the permanent internal organ damage seen in more than 1/3 of natural infections.

    Once pneumonia and internal organ damage have occurred, people need hospitalization. And this is why the rate of hospitalization after vaccination is extraordinarily low compared to the unvaccinated.”

    https://dalewharrison.substack.com/p/there-are-no-breakthrough-infections

  4. “My prediction is that coronavirus will turn into something akin to the common cold or flu. We’ll all get it repeatedly throughout our lives, but our antibodies will ensure that it is not overly leathal.”

    Is it leathal or Leithal or lethal?

    Seriously though, it won’t be like the flu if you have to isolate for 14 days if you test positive for it. Does anyone know what the rule is in the UK? Do you still have to isolate if you test positive? And what about your close contacts/ household members? And are you ever actually required to undergo a test?

    Because if everyone will get it every 4 years or so, that’s a lot of ongoing disruption to what life was like pre-2020. Plus, that’s a lot of sick leave that we are opening ourselves up for – that’s if you get sick leave!

  5. In the long term your view may prove to be correct, but in the here and now it’s absolutely wrong. Australia is totally un-prepared for the delta variant. Vaccination rates are far too Low and unlike the UK no one has natural antibodies.

    As I said yesterday, delta has an amazingly high infectious ness rate and mortality isn’t just confined to the elderly and infirm. Many of those posting on this site yesterday need to do some homework rather than just commenting. I’d suggest reading the CDC PowerPoint for starters and Dale’s website (mentioned above) is also a great resource.

    • Mortality has never been totally confined to the elderly and infirm, but generally it is. Delta is no different.

      • He didn’t say totally confined

        Citation required on hospitalisation – icu breakdowns,!death but age decile, alpha/etc v delta v country v seasonality for comorbidities

    • Peter,

      With the greatest respect you have no way to make this claim.

      “Vaccination rates are far too Low and unlike the UK no one has natural antibodies.”

      We dont do testing for antibodies, we do testing for infection. How do you know that the majority of NSW, VIC and QLD residents have not already been exposed to the virus, shown no or minimal signs and then fully recovered?

      If anything, with Delta out in the community in NSW with such poor lockdown standards and only 300-400 cases a day, it gives the argument around natural antibodies being widespread more validity than your claim that “no one” has them.

      If cases go vertical then your guess was right, but lets be clear, your comment is purely a guess with zero ability to prove true or false. At the moment with a low R value, you are being proven more wrong than right.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        How do we know? It’s simple enough to look at hospitalisations in other first world countries, and correlate the numbers from there.

        Unless, you believe Australia and NZ are special.

        • We don’t, that’s my point. Peter was stating that “no one has antibodies”. My claim was, how do you know since we don’t do anti body testing.

          Statistically there is not exponential growth in NSW. With all the exposure one could argue that if there were no antibodies in the community then infection s would be scaling rapidly. They are not.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Countries like Iceland are hitting record numbers of Covid cases despite being over 90% vaccinated. So vaccination has made zero difference to the rate of transmission and infection compared to when the country was unvaccinated. So anyone who thinks vaccination is going to stop you catching and spreading the disease is dreaming.

  6. Pull the Bandaid

    Vaccinated people have always been infectious from day one. I don’t know why they are pinning it on the Indian variant.

    Given the degree to which this virus is being rapidly transferred between people, with vaccines providing all the encouragement it needs, we might end up with a much deadlier variant.

  7. 2 million people in UK had returned a positive covid test by 31st December 2020 – that’s about 3% of the population. 72k people died as a result.
    At the current vaccine coverage it looks like vaccine is reducing mortality rates to as little as a 10th as it had been when zero were vaccinated. But if, in the future 25% of population get it each year, so 8 x as many cases, you really haven’t gained much ground – you’ll reduce from 72k deaths to about 58k deaths. Better than nothing, but not spectacular.

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      Also much better considering people can get on with the their lives.

      Happy to take that for the marginal increased risk of death.

    • Pull the Bandaid

      These were the first waves of the virus as well it’s picking off the lowest of low hanging fruit, elderly with comorbidities and really fat slobs.

      I don’t think can compared what happened in the first waves with nearly 18 months down the track when most people in the UK have already had some exposure to the virus.

      The vaccines work if you maintain all other restrictions since they will limit deaths, but if we allow life to go back to normal we’re back at the point where the number of deaths were supposedly unacceptable.

      • The vaccines work if you maintain all other restrictions since they will limit deaths, but if we allow life to go back to normal we’re back at the point where the number of deaths were supposedly unacceptable.

        That’s all I’m really saying – vaccines plus moderate restrictions is the likely outcome.

        • Disagree – you need the collective global immune system to be exposed to the mutations regularly so it cannot morph into something much worse. i.e. small changes rather than massive ones (seasonal cold and flu). The reason the 1st wave took out so many was because it was novel and this has been repeated through history with diseases. One they become widespread, the collective immune system catches up and can deal with the smaller incremental changes.

        • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

          Agree -with the additions that
          a) we need improvements in testing and quarantining. imagine if quarantine needed to be only 2 days instead of 2 weeks, or if accurate testing can be done in 2 hours instead of two days
          b) proper vaccines, that generate full immune responses, not these half arsed, voodoo vaccines that only generate T cell responses. we need vaccines that give you a dead version of the coronavirus. Strangely, only thechinese are making vaccines like this

      • Reus's large MEMBER

        This is the part that they don’t count when touting the success of the vaccine, so many of the at risk died last year from so the fatalities would naturally be lower as well as there would be a lot more people with natural immunity too. TBH non sterilising vaccines only encourage more mutant versions of the virus!

        • But as a counterpoint I’d say look at the NSW population – The elderly, largely unexposed to the virus from the initial outbreak, now with substantial first shot coverage at least, are much less affected. Hospitalisations are predominantly among the unvaccinated.

          • Nothing in life is 100% certain – and includes vaccines. Moreover, when given to someone in their 90s who knows how well their immune system is functioning. That doesn’t change the fact that overwhelmingly, vaccinated people are kept alive and out of hospital.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      What if the reduction in deaths is simply a result of Delta being less lethal? Assuming its because of the vaccine may be confusing correlation with causation. In the UK 66% of deaths are of vaccinated people, if the vaccine stopped you from dying all the deaths should be from the 3000 odd of unvaccinated patients currently hospitalised with Covid. But it turns out that being younger and unvaccinated still gives you a lower risk of death than being older and vaccinated.

  8. desmodromicMEMBER

    The difference is that in humans influenza is a pulmonary infection that kills you or it doesn’t and you recover. Covid on the other hand is a multi-organ disease and some are yet to recover from infections dating back more than a year, e.g. blood clots in the brain. It may take a generation or two of COVID weeding out the vulnerable for it to become ‘just like the flu’. In the meantime the herd will get smaller as those with vulnerabilities are removed from the population. I don’t particularly want to be in the statistics that result in future generations having a greater measure of immunity to this disease.

    I’m fully vaxxed and just hoping that Australia doesn’t descend into tyranny as the deluded, inept and insane argue over what to do next.

  9. call me ArtieMEMBER

    By every metric I can think of, the current NSW outbreak is about 50% as bad as last year’s Victorian outbreak:

    new cases per day
    total cases
    deaths
    time spent in lock down

    Such a panic. What am I missing apart from the obvious, Scotty lives there and it’s a(n) LNP state?

    • It hasn’t peaked yet, so time spent in lock down and total cases are virtually guaranteed to be end up being more than double current. If the peak isn’t tomorrow, that could also apply to cases per day. The only reason deaths is excluded is due to the partial vaccine rollout.

  10. steveh2797MEMBER

    What your constant “it’ll just be like flu or a bad cold” comments overlook without fail is the impact of long-term covid both on individuals and on health systems. (You also avoid addressing who will be paying for never-ending vaccinations/boosters and the infrastructure required to deliver them.) Re long covid, it’s still early days from a data perspective, but there’s growing evidence from credible US studies that it affects as many as 25% of symptomatic cases.

  11. Again … before any start wobbling on about Covid its recommended to be informed by referencing the cannon on infectious diseases aka Mandell.