Where next for reflation?

Goldman with the note:

1. The shift towards more cyclical and value leadership that dominated the period from the 2020 March low to the beginning of this year reflected a particularly strong inflection point in growth and inflation expectations following unprecedented policy support and progress on vaccinations. Given that there were record valuation spreads between growth and value parts of the market prior to this inflection point, the shift in confidence had a big impact on market leadership. As Exhibit 1 shows, our baskets of global cyclicals relative to defensives started to outperform on a year over year basis, moving very closely with changes in growth expectations (represented here as the global composite PMI). The recent fading of cyclical outperformance has also coincided with a peak in growth momentum on this metric but would appear to be reflecting an expectation that the global PMI slows to the low 50s. As Exhibit 2 shows, this is also true when we compare global value versus growth.

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