Want to end lockdowns? Get vaccinated

The UK’s COVID infection rate continues to fall.

Despite easing all remaining coronavirus restrictions on 19 July, the nation’s daily Covid cases have fallen week-on-week for seven days straight.

The UK Department of Health yesterday posted 27,734 infections, down 37% on the prior week’s figure of 44,104.

Infections are now falling across all age groups, surprisingly dipping fastest among twenty-somethings, many of whom remain unvaccinated.

The next chart encapsulates the story:

UK COVID infections

UK COVID infections keep on falling without restrictions.

COVID deaths, on the other hand, are rising. But this rise comes off a very low base, with deaths running at a mere fraction of the two prior peaks:

UK COVID deaths

UK COVID deaths remain low.

The news is so good that one senior Government minister told the press that the coronavirus’s grip on the UK is “all over bar the shouting”.

Even ‘Professor Lockdown’ himself, Neil Ferguson – whose models were the basis for lockdown – has capitulated. The day before ‘Freedom Day’ was announced, Professor Ferguson told the BBC that 100,000 daily cases were inevitable:

“I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable… I think it’s almost certain we’ll get through 1,000 hospitalisations per day; it’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is: do we get to double that or even higher? And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean we could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day but it’s much less certain.”

Yesterday, Professor Ferguson sang an entirely different tune to the BBC:

“The equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death.

And I’m positive that by late September or October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic”.

As noted by Professor Ferguson, the UK’s world-leading COVID vaccination rate is the key factor explaining why the their COVID numbers are so encouraging in the face of reopening:

COVID vaccination rates

UK leading, Australia lagging.

As shown above, the UK has the second highest vaccination rate in the world, with 55.2% of residents fully vaccinated and another 13.5% partially vaccinated.

Australia obviously compares very poorly, with only 13.5% of residents fully vaccinated and a further 17.7% partially vaccinated.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but the lesson here for Australians is obvious: if you want an end to lockdowns, get vaccinated. The equation is that simple.

Thankfully, more Australians are catching on:

Vaccine hesitancy

Vaccine hesitancy falling among Australians.

Disclosure: I am fully vaccinated with Pfizer. I am also fed up with lockdowns.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. Not this little black duck!
    Lock down the borders to halt the multicultural invasion 🙂

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Kudos for admitting that on a pro site.
      I’m all for protection against disease, will have yet another bi daily dose this morn. Hope it’s not too crowded though as missus car needs new air suspension and will give her a lift at 4.00 am to dog walk beforehand.

      • Just need enough pin pricks to the everything bubble.
        Dog knows we’ve already got enough pricks in government 😉

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Very few doctors know much about health, their forte’ being drugs and knives. The last thing an observant person would do would be to take advice from a pasty faced sicky looking new media identity. There would always be a small minorty heeding advice to inject anything ( disinfectant) in pure faith or fear of non compliance.

    • Yeah nah to the vex/hex:) ok for lockdown to continue. Fingers crossed it will drive rentals into the ground leaving a swathe of unoccupied homes with recently updated bathrooms (sad face) ripe for squatting. Either that or have the fully furnished Australian house of ex for rain students & family now residing in home country, looted by thieves….happening in Bentleigh right now:) Local police have zero care factor but I guess they have hands full policing naughty anti vex/hexxers in the city each weekend:) Keep lockdown rolling…& mask wearing so that mugs & sons of Mary easily recognisable:)

    • 15 minutes lifespan until censo-red.

      So copy this to keep & repaste.

      Yes agree – locked down borders to stop the multicultural invasion.

      Australian armed forces sent into the Sydney migrant zones could also do something useful & long overdue m.


      This is an excellent opportunity for the Australian Army along with Border Force & NSW Police to cordon off & then validate the identities, living conditions & visa compliance of the millions of non Australian migrants.

      To detain, intern & then deport hundreds of thousands of migrant criminal illegals in visa breach.

      As big picture context – we have 4.3 million non Australian foreign nationals onshore.

      ◽️1.9 million as so called PR, with at least 160,000 PR who were actually living overseas / then fleeing back to Australian to re-instate their Centrelink benefits.
      Over half the ‘arrivals’ into Australia since March 2020. Mostly Chinese, middle Eastern & then Indians who overloaded our borders & quarantine & were the prime cause of bringing in the virus.
      Meanwhile we have over 40,000 genuine Australian citizens still stranded overseas..

      ◽️Then we have 1.8 million foreign national non citizens on TR – almost all third world Chinese, Indian, South East Asian, middle Eastern unskilled false doc foreign nationals on a TR visa pretext.

      ◽️Then add on 665,000 NZ SCV – with over 360,000 being non NZ born third world unskilled foreign nationals sneaking into Australia using the NZ SCV pretext.

      That’s 4.365 million non Australians foreign nationals onshore.

      With 4 million of those being of third world unskilled on PR or TR / SCV visa pretexts.

      Highly concentrated, 88% or 3.5 million in just 2 cities – Sydney & Melbourne. (ABS)

      Sydney pop 5.4 million with 1.9 million third world non Australian foreign nationals.
      35% or more than 1 in every 3 people is a non Australian foreign national on a foreign passport. (ABS)

      Melbourne pop 5.1 million with 1.6 million third world foreign nationals.
      31% so nearing 1 in 3 people as a non Australian citizen foreign national on a foreign passport. (ABS)

      The highest concentration of non citizen foreign nationals of any OECD western nation city.

      In both these cities the 3.5 million non Australian migrants predominantly live in vast non assimilated migrant enclaves as faithful recreations of their homeland slums of Guangzhou, Mumbai, Dhaka, Cairo etc.

      The Sydney western suburbs migrant zone contain at least 1.4 million of these third world migrant non Australians. (ABS)

      The epicentre of the foreign criminal run migrant black market cash economy, vice, drugs, lawlessness.

      Most of the migrants – especially the majority TR are living & working illegally in visa breach.
      Crowded unhygienic illegal bunk share, falsified identities, working on falsified identities/ defying contact tracing.

      They are the incubation hub and transmission vector of the virus from the ‘arrivals’ to the Australian community.

      As we have seen over & over again with the migrant guestworker ‘security guards’ quarantine hotel staff, the aged care & nursing home ‘cleaners’, the retail shelf stackers & logistics, Uber & Deliveroo etc.

      Non Australian third world migrants on visa pretexts living & working here illegally as the virus incubator & transmission vector to Australians.

      ➡️My point.

      With the Australian army being sent in – why not do a full cordon & inspection of the entire Sydney migrant slum dormitory?

      The Australian army, Australian border force & NSW police do a building by building, street by street, suburb by suburb sweep.

      Armed Forces around the perimeter & controlling street by street checkpoints as well as pacifying any resistance by the migrants in the migrant zone.

      🔻Full identification checks.
      🔻Full inspection of living conditions & the crowded & illegal migrant bunk share.
      🔻Full checks on visa compliance.
      🔻Mandatory testing of the migrant virus reservoir & forced quarantine.

      👉🏾And then detainment & deportation of what will be hundreds of thousands of migrant criminal illegals in visa breach.

      Long overdue.

  2. SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

    In the us and the uk herd immunity is comprised of the vaccinated, the recovered and people who are both recovered and vaccinated. Recovery doesn’t completely prevent reinfection in individuals but there is a lot of evidence that it contributes to herd immunity. Since Australia has had so little community covid, Vax coverage will probably need to be far higher than UK or USA to achieve a similar outcome. Very high vax coverage is clearly the only way forward.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      Don’t forget the boomer remover took out a lot of the sick and old Poms in the first wave. Vulnerable Australians are still to face off with the virus and therefore I think out death rate after our Freedom Day will be higher than theirs.

    • 80% will be the number here I reckon –
      It’s finding its way into the MSM discourse

      How’s the house hunting going ?

      • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

        I bought a lot in Queensland in January. Designing a house right now. Hope to have it built by about April 2022. We’ll see. Everything takes longer than you think it will.

  3. Leroy Huggins

    There is another possibility. Delta is more transmissible but less deadly than the earlier strains. This would fit the known trajectory of most viruses. It would also mean that we can open without mass vaccinations. Note “3rd and 4th wave” deaths in other nations, with low vaccination rates are also low.

      • Alex Rondelson

        400k dead ‘officially’ with COVID in India

        600k estimated to die annually from influenza/pneumonia

        2.5million estimated to die annually there from air pollution!

        Its a once-a-decade flu variant…

        • Frank DrebinMEMBER

          How many from Dengue and Malaria ?.

          Million+ every year.

          Hopefully we can also start pouring money into eradicating some of these diseases now.

        • Your comment lies on an assumption that both data points are accurate.
          I’d probably tend to suspect both are conservative, covid moreso.

        • “400k dead ‘officially’ with COVID in India
          600k estimated to die annually from influenza/pneumonia
          2.5million estimated to die annually there from air pollution!
          Its a once-a-decade flu variant…”

          No – 600k is worldwide deaths annually. In a year and a half over 4 million have been killed by C19 worldwide and that’s with the mass lockdowns of various types etc. Without the lockdowns it would have been much-much greater.

          Edit: 600k is actually at the upper end of typical global mortality from the flu

  4. Herd Immunity

    Is there a capacity to even test 200k infected people. Not everyone will be infected so to find 200k infected people you might have to test 1-2 million every single day.

    I think the spike coincides everyone going crazy with England making the Euros final the streets and pubs were jam packed. It’s natural that cases would no fall away no that everyone has had their fun.

    I riding deaths is what you should watch I would have expected them to be much lower in the middle of summer. I think it will ramp up in the colder months without restrictions.

    There’s no herd immunity from vaccines or prior infection people can stop peddling that theory.

    Also if the vaccines are driving infections down then why did they spike so high to begin with?

    I think MB are all in on the reopening trade reopening without hiccups.

    • Maybe its fear that makes help this virus transmit, when the government projects fear onto the people with lockdowns then cortsol levels rise and the virus transmits more easily. And when the government tells the people ‘ its ok you can go outside and play then people relax, the immune system can do what the immune system does and the virus transmits less easily.
      I think some people have gone all in on lockdown.

      • Hermit Kingdom

        I think a lot of this is the case in India and Indonesia. Much of the population has not had stable income, or enough money to meet basic need for 16 months now. Malnutrition is a serious problem in Indonesia right now because of the virus.

        The people might have had enough strength to fight off the virus 16 months ago, but not after 16 months of trying to make enough simply to eat, all hope gone for many people.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Yep. The number number of reported cases is a function of the number of tests. And testing has fallen off a cliff in the UK and explains roughly half of the decline in covid cases. Testing capacity is most definitely a consideration

    • Anders Andersen

      Can’t help but feel there’s a tie in to their position and the MB Fund position outcome!

    • Reference please “There’s no herd immunity from vaccines or prior infection people can stop peddling that theory.”

    • Think its been pretty clear from day 1 that this round of vaccines (and mostly likely all future ones) will not stop infection & transmission. They will significantly reduce symptoms, helping people avoid hospitalisation and death.

      • Yes, anecdotally at least it seems so far that for both vaccinated and un-vaccinated this time around the hospital stays are much shorter. This is good news but perhaps it only applies to countries that have had huge previous infections ?

  5. I’ve got to break free
    I want to break free, Yeah
    I want, I want, I want, I want to break free

  6. AndynycMEMBER

    There are poor alternatives and the risk to you and your family is too great.

    I fully expected it would take years to get a sustainable SARS based vaccine. How wrong I was. It is a marvel of science, of course we really DONT have a vaccine to the virus, just to a variety of variants. Either way….

    Go get vaccinated.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I know a lot of people who are terrified of the vaccine.
      Though one or 2 of them have always treated their bodies like a temple and lived very healthy lifestyles the vast majority of them have spent a large portion of their adult lives consuming a wide variety of various chemicals, drugs and home brews of dubious origin and quality.

      “Ya never seemed to be concerned about the negative side effects of putting unknown concoctions up yer nose and into ya blood over the last 30 years Ive known ya!
      Why are ya so worried now”? I like to ask.
      “Um,…errr,…well there probably isn’t that much to worry about,.. is there,…when you look at it that way” many reply.
      “No” i say.
      “But dont get the AstraZeneca one” I’ll continue
      “Those pr!cks are in bed with our corrupt LNP Government.
      Get the Pfizer one instead”
      Probably not good advice now the odds have changed so much here in Sydney town
      and Pfizer availably still so shyte.

        • For me I just know there are only so many vaccines available to the worlds people and I dont want to take a vaccine that someone in a poor country could have. I think Australia is being a bully by demanding all these vaccines when there are poor countries and refugees that need it more.

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            Do the work. Stop exercising your white privilege by getting vaccinated while there are still People Of Colour who have not been vaccinated. You are an oppressor. Be an ally – don’t get vaccinated until all the People Of Colour in the world are protected.

      • AndynycMEMBER

        Agreed. I think its the same story for vaccination in general. Sometimes you do things so other people in the community are safe.

        I hate how anti-vaxxers have no problem infecting newborns with whooping cough because their kids are old enough to withstand it (and have no problem giving them antibiotics) but newborns are not old enough for a vaccine and can be horribly harmed.

        • The “anti-vaxxers” you describe sound like terrible people. The whooping cough vaccine you refer to was well-tested and proven to be very safe.

          What is your opinion of a person who is afraid of these new experimental vaccines? These vaccines have not been well-tested and proven to be safe yet. In fact these vaccines appear to be the most dangerous medicines currently allowed for general use.

          The true long term danger of lead, radium, nicotine, thalidomide and asbestos were not known when they were first recklessly used.
          Would you agree it would be a tragedy if a large percentage of the population were severely harmed (asbestos-style) by the current experimental vaccines and it turned out that they could have waited for truly safe vaccines to be developed?

          • AndynycMEMBER

            Because what you are stating as reasons have been thoroughly debunked.
            Anti-vax is a religion, there is nothing I can say that will change your mind, even if i linked you the evidence.
            The vaccine is not perfect, but I think after millions and millions of doses its as good as its going to get.

      • At least the purveyors of those chemicals don’t make you sign a waiver absolving them of any responsibilty for the consequences of using them.

      • Dumb argument:)
        Folk know the risks:
        beer = man boobs.
        Spirits = fight, family violence
        THC = Dream filled sleep & feral mates
        Coke = coke whore therefore [email protected] not getting elsewhere
        Ice = lose everything: dignity, car, licence, job, business, wife, children, house, family, mates, life:)
        Taking the jab it up your a$$$$ unknown outcome:)
        Do it if you mu$t

  7. https://youtu.be/wIYV3HZKMts
    Case Fatality Rate V. Infection Fatality Rate

    Why are these never quoted? Because the government/media fear machine is feeding us the big scary case numbers and using the testing numbers as a cudgel to shame or praise us. What is important is that we see the CFR and arguably the hospitalisations.

    Let’s get this straight. Locking down doesn’t work. It isn’t necessary and it’s a political decision, not a scientific one.

    Given that the vax does not provide immunity in so far as a vaccinated person can still catch the Rona and still infect others to what extent can we consider these to be vaccines at all? Furthermore, the vaccines are all based on the Alpha strain. It’s last years virus. We are likely to see further strains develop and circulate yet.

    I don’t regard mass vaccination as the only way out of lockdown and “Prison Island”. Coming out of Winter it’s time to let it rip. Let’s get Australians through the Susceptible and into Infected and Recovered. Herd immunity is possible if you aren’t a bed-wetting Corona-Karen hypochondriac.

      • I’ve been a paid member from the outset and a follower since before it was MB. But perhaps I missed the good doctor’s contribution in that period while DLS was railing against any dissent – I tuned out for a bit, at least when it came to Rona discourse.

        I was lucky enough to catch Dr Malone on Brett Weinstein’s Dark Horse podcast (before yt censorship).

        • @Aaron Yes, I let my membership lapse after that.
          I only looked in today to see if there was any recognition of the fact that pretty much everything that numerous members on here were warning of, and abused for, nearly 18 months ago has come to be -such as opening the door to a police state with “Just two weeks to flatten the curve” bul…, never ending lockdowns for a virus with a survival rate (IFR) of 99.7%,
          the fact we have never had a efficacious flu vaccine. We now have an experimental emergency use vaccine that is reported to be killing and injuring people and, by numerous expert accounts, is actually fueling the variants and is now failing so requires continual boosters.It seems the case rate is soaring in the most vaccinated countries even though I understand they have lowered the PCR cycle threshold from 45 to 25 only for the vaccinated hmmm.
          We live in a de-facto totalitarian state with no freedom to congregate, travel, free speech, and coming soon, control of our own health. Always it’s ‘ Just another month’ or ‘The end of the year’ or ‘When you’re all vaccinated’ but that day never actually arrives. I could go on but whats the point, there’s no coming back from this.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Lockdown has worked. Sorry. Its our lived experience in Victoria. Its quarantine and border control that has repeatedly failed.

      If vaccines keep shaping up as only partially effective, herd immunity will become a busted flush.

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        Eyes should still be on quarantine facilities. The virus still has plenty of hosts in which to mutate again. Even if we blew a billion dollars and the facility was underutilised, the cost of any breakout needing shut downs is magnitudes higher so its sensibly insurance in my opinion. May also help keep immigration levels away from crazy highs if incoming passengers need to still spend some time and dollars when they come here.

        • This is the easiest long term way to deal with COVID. Decent quarantine, not makeshift hotel quarantine. I would rather Australia be exceptional and be well run – just because the rest of the world is “letting it rip” and dying because they can’t manage it doesn’t mean we have to. And I don’t mean lockdowns.

      • Squiggle you must live in a different Victoria than I do. I’m going to guess you live in urban Melbourne. I live outside Melbourne. In fact, l live in a town where they set up the Ring of Steel at my highway exit. My town straddles two local government areas. One urban, the other regional. Therefore we had half the town under stricter lockdown than the other. The 5km travel limit wasn’t even enough to let people make it to the next town over where we shop, or go to the doctor or do anything for that matter. The plight of my town was in the media and showed up the obvious failings of ill-considered policy. But did the Andrews Labor government or Brett Sutton learn a damn thing from it? No, because here we are again with a 5km lockdown. Do you think for a second anyone out here bunkered down and didn’t go anywhere? Of course not. And that right there is the fact that you lock down fanatics can’t get your head around. People need their basic freedom to go about their business. Forcing compliance never works.

        A lock down may slow the chain of transmission but it cannot stop it.

    • Great comment Aaron. There has been a complete absence of sensible risk assessment in relation to covid. Yes it kills people but what is the demographic effected and how does it compare to previous years, and weigh that up verses the effects of lockdowns and other measures to control it. Covid predominantly effects the old and sick verses lockdowns effecting the young and poor. This is turning out to be a huge class war that like most other class wars on the young and poor is rabidly supported by overeducated white collar narcissists.

  8. Interestingly Dr Robert Malone, the inventor of the MRNA vaccine, has been talking about the vaccine and the latest data in a number of podcasts.
    Before you all rush out and get it perhaps you would be wise to listen to what he has to say. I would suggest ‘duck duck go’ and not ‘google’ for the search engine.

  9. BradleyMEMBER

    I’ve had my first AZ jab a couple of weeks ago after holding out for trouble making reasons. Now I am more than happy for others to keep holding out to keep the chaos and failures bubbling along. Nowhere near enough damage has been done – housing is still sky-rocketing and so are car and other luxury purchases. We are still importing people even in a pandemic! I want stagflation and rising interest rates. Climate change disasters are not happening quick enough but we might get lucky, you never know. Yes, I am a doomer boomer because like BC says, all the signs point to an unsustainable future few are prepared for. I think I am but who knows. Interesting times.

    • Hi Bradley,
      My friend, healthy 60 year old, had a massive blood clot and heart attack 2 days after his second dose. He now lives on a concoction of pharmaceuticals after narrowly escaping death.
      I’m sure it wasn’t a side effect of the vaccine though as it is only causal if you die within 28 days of a positive covid test so all good.

      • BradleyMEMBER

        I am going for a motorcycle ride tomorrow as I’ve been doing for over 40 years. Generally hit a speed well over the limit multiple times. I understand all too well that bad stuff happens and I just weigh up the risks. Tough for your mate but I have a cool plan if my quality of life is destroyed. You’ll read about it if it happens. Tell your mate to get even, not just mad.

        • “Dr Fauci claims vaccinated people infected with Indian Delta variant have the same viral levels as those who haven’t had shots”…the UK data are either bullsh!t or they have not been analysed properly. MB is my go-to place for stupid virus opinions.

          • The Travelling Phantom

            Where to go for smart virus opinions? The “other” blog as Reusa call it?
            Jokes aside…I don’t have an opinion about covid after all this time apart from I don’t want it,
            ok thanx bye!

    • That low 7 day average death tally, nudging 80 after 85 deaths were recorded on the 29th of July, is still equivalent on a per capita basis to the average number of deaths per day during Victoria’s 2nd wave out break, and would be double UK deaths from influenza and pneumonia if kept up throughout the year (14k in 2018).

  10. 27000 infections and 90 deaths is a CFR of 0.33%

    Which is similar to essentially unvaccinated NSW during this outbreak

    Now how effective are vaccines ?

    We have upended the world and suspended liberty for 18 months for an absolute reduction in CFR of 0.1 – 0.2% ?

    Someone put up the victory banner

  11. I think Leith’s getting a bit carried away declaring this as good as over in the UK.

    Hospitalisations are trending up sharply in recent weeks and it’s not even August.

    • Alex Rondelson

      They are swabbing anyone who comes into hospital for any reason, if they’re COVID+, they’re listed as a ‘COVID hospitalisation’.

      Need to look at the overall hospital utilisation rate.

      • I know people who work in UK NHS hospitals as I used to work in one myself.

        The vast majority of designated COVID admissions are for severe respiratory tract infections.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Its an old trick they pulled on the regular flu as well.

        Around 2001 they reclassified many respiratory problems presenting at hospitals as “the flu”, especially pneumonia.
        Around 2001 flu vaccines were the latest thing and everyone needed to have one.

        I’ve had the flu once in my life. Never had a flu shot. Not to be confused with Rhinovirus, ie a cold, which I have had plenty of times, and I don’t think the flu shot does anything for anyway.
        I’ve been pretty sick from Rhinovirus due to complications like ENT infections, its not fun, but its also not the flu.

        • Yes . I was thinking something similar the other day.

          I’m mid forties and never had the flu shot. Ive had what I thought was the flu in prob 2004, had to drop out of some uni subjects as couldn’t get out of bed for like 10 days, and then was pretty weak for about another ten. And then lathargic for a couple of months.

          But I have never had flu shot. Neither has my grandmother which made me wonder how long flu shots have been a thing

  12. Alex Rondelson

    Vaccines end lockdowns eh? Iceland would like a word:


    90%+ vaccine rate, and still they have:

    A 200-person gathering limit, one-metre distancing, and restricted opening hours for bars and nightclubs

    Meanwhile, Sweden remains completely free, as do other countries which successfully protested against lockdowns. Even the UK ‘Freedom Day’ was only unveiled after about 100,000 people took to the streets.

  13. The voluntrily unvaccinated are doing the rest of the population a favour in that they can maintain circulation of Covid in the community and the resulting recurrent exposures of vaccinated people to virus will provide them with boosted immunity. The voluntarily unvaccinated will be providing society a service and taking on a higher level of personal risk on behalf of everyone else so give them a break.

    • BradleyMEMBER

      Plus they are helping secure a double dip recession and keeping international borders more or less closed. I love their work!

    • Agreed. Need to move the (healthy and resilient) population through the pipeline from Susceptible to Infected, to Recovered.

      Lock up the elderly and the infirmed. The hypochondriacs can fend for themselves and apply risk mitigation as they see fit.

      Where are the news articles/vox pops from the THOUSANDS of Aussies who have caught Rona and survived it? Can’t have that, it would demolish the narrative.

      It’s all a “State of fear”. Explained wonderfully by Laura Dodsworth in her new book and discussed with Ivor Cummins here https://youtu.be/bDN8QIJROzc

      Same tactics deployed in Oz!

      • Jumping jack flash

        Vaccinate the elderly!
        And hopefully they all fare better than my father did after getting the jab.

    • Vaccines do not make them immune, it reduces the severity in the susceptible. Vaccination to 90% will only reduce hospitalisation.

  14. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    I am posting this while in the post-jab waiting room at Sunshine Hospital vaccine hub, Melbourne, after my first dose of Pfizer. Very efficient process and free parking. Five star experience.

  15. Jumping jack flash

    If the case for lockdowns is based on a function of new infection and transmission rates then will a “fully” vaccinated population (~60%?) bring those numbers to under the lockdown “threshold”?

    It is fact it is still possible based on variants and random chance that infections and transmissions will still occur after vaccination. Will these rates be acceptable to prevent lockdowns?

    If vaccination is meant to reduce infection severity, and not much else, what is the definition of a “serious” COVID infection? One that requires hospitalisation?

    Perhaps the new lockdown threshold will be based on hospitalisation rates?

    Or perhaps after everyone is vaccinated nobody will bother with getting tested anymore so transmission and infection rates will “naturally” reduce, and then the only metric that will be available is hospitalisation rates from severe infections.

    It will be interesting to see hospitalisation rates after lockdown restrictions (and mask wearing) are lifted. I suppose the UK will be a good test of that as they approach “fully” vaccinated.

    • Placebo vax would be effective at reducing testing numbers. I can have it in production and deliver it at an affordable price. Let me get that Liberal party donation squared away.

    • Suspect many will wear masking enduringly.

      Mum’s in far western Vic on a sojourn at present and tells me, despite any cases, everyone is masking up due to the Mel numbers last few days.

      If this remains infectious/endemic, despite vaccinations, and the outcome of catching it can still be not at all like the cold/flu, people may elect to regulate behaviour in response. Makes sense.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Pretty much all the COVID symptoms (including the mystical and mythical “long COVID”) are identical to symptoms from the regular flu.

      • Jumping jack flash

        “…people may elect…”

        This is the key point, “may elect”. At the moment it is forced upon us. My original question remains: Will the transmission rates and infection rates of a fully vaccinated population mean that lockdowns will not occur? Because you can be certain that infections and transmissions will still occur despite vaccination, and that’s just based on the current variants in circulation.

        And that is also considering the increased complacency that will certainly occur after everyone is vaccinated and “immune” from COVID.

        • Transmission rates without lockdowns will certainly be larger than current sydney rates under lockdown.
          Presumably this means lockdowns forever, or the lockdown wouldn’t be happening now.

  16. Allow me to preface this by saying I heartily encourage anyone and everyone (who isn’t me) to get vaccinated.

    Gentle encouragement, emotional blackmail hasn’t worked, bullying and name calling (“Ooooh, look at the coward who won’t participate in the human trials!” or “Do it for the vulnerable, if not yourself”) is now in full swing, the stick will be next. Maybe not this wave, but 100% next autumn. Hopefully fake vaccine passports will be readily available when the time comes.

    Vaccinated still contract and transmit the virus, just like the unvaccinated.

    If the virus is so deadly, and the vaccine so safe, surely bullying wouldn’t be required.

    • It’s hard to apply a stick to something that you have to sign a waiver of your rights to actually have.

    • no, not just like the unvaccinated. It reduces transmission and severity of symptoms.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Sure I agree transmissions and infection severity are reduced, but are they reduced ENOUGH to prevent lockdowns? That’s my question.
        It is a poor metric to use as a basis of implementing lockdowns. In many cases people can be infected and transmit the virus with little repercussions to society.

        If the danger is too many hospitalisations then use that metric to determine whether lockdowns are necessary. The statistics are surely available as to how many infections lead to hospitalisations.

        • Agree. The hospitalisation rate is reduced with vaccination but I understand the problem is that our bed numbers and ICU capacity are tuned to normal times i.e. virtually no spare capacity, especially inadequate for pandemics, even with lower rates due to vaccination.


      Yah I don’t it’s helpful to shame folks that don’t want vaxx for whatever reason. Surely not the most effective way to convince somebody of something.

      There will certainly be some kind of vaccine passports for travel/going to sporting events and such going forwards though. If societies want to de-risk enough that they won’t need lockdowns, they’re kind of the inevitable solution to mitigating impacts from high-risk activities.

    • AndynycMEMBER


      Probably dont need to do much except show the hospital covid wards in Florida.

      Once you get it and you are unlucky enough to need to be in the ICU – good luck

  17. Duke_Wellington

    wont get vaccinated – loving the lockdowns.
    When the travel industry is in pain – im a happy guy.

  18. The current Astra Zeneca jab application is two large shots, separated by several months.

    Would it be better to have say 3 or 4 much smaller jabs, spread out over a longer period? Would this reduce the risk of severe clots? Should this still qualify as a “vaccination” and entitle the jabee to carry a “vaccine passport”?


      Just get the T shirt or placard with a QR code that say: “Scan for my Vaccine Passport”.
      The ‘scan’ will lead right to the Australian Constitution.

      • Anyone else old enough to remember the fight against the Australia Card? Now they’re begging for a X10 version of it FFS. BTW, anyone who trots out the “Well, I’ve got nothing to hide” is a moron beneath contempt. By the time you do have something to hide, it’s too late. As the Uyghurs. Never happen here but.

  19. Graph of the week: New Zealand has the worst COVID vaccination rate in the OECD …

    Graph of the week: New Zealand has the worst COVID vaccination rate in the OECD

    … in case lengthy url below fails … access via NZ Initiative link below it … broken link access’s wrong page …


    …from this weeks New Zealand Initiative Insights … All Things Considered section (at bottom) …

    Insights 27 : 30 July 2021 … New Zealand Initiative


    Grattan: 80% vaccination rate required to end lockdowns … Leith van Onselen … MacroBusiness Australia


    … before listening to the excuses from the New Zealand government and its Ministry of Truth ( once Health ) … this portrayal of George Orwell may be helpful …

    Literature – George Orwell – The School of Life / Youtube


  20. Hi all. I’ll put myself right out there to be ridiculed, but I have to. I am totally fed up with all the people requiring us lepers that choose to not get the vaccine to do it for the country. It’s a basic right as a human being that all of us have to choose what we consume, what we don’t, and what medicines we ingest. To have complete strangers “demand” of us anything … go and f..k yourself. I am not an anti-vaxxer, believe in vaccines, I have chosen through researching for myself, without blind faith in our so called visionary leaders and beyond disrepute pharmaceutical “experts”, not to get the vaccine for a host of reasons, many of which many shallow individuals will gloss over. My wife had 2 craniotomies the space of 4 weeks last year due to a brain tumor. Additionally, she has multiple sclerosis. Thus immuno-compromised. Additionally I am medically trained. And many in my industry feel as I do… there are just too many things that do not add up. I’m not a conspiracy theorist. Even when I was in IT, the motto with changes to an operating system such as service packs etc was to not be first can off the rank….let the passage of time unravel problems that organically will and always occur. This is not IT, but the same principle applies….let time allow issues with a vaccine surface. People en masse are allowing their health to be dictated and determined by utter morons that have their own agenda, many of which don’t resonate with many in the community obviously, as evidenced by the pitiful uptake of vaccination rates in the community. Even paracetamol had more years under its belt of testing than this. And people are happy enough to put their faith in money-oriented pharmaceutical companies that chose to thwart alternative solutions such as ivomectin etc… I could go on, but just call me a lepar. it’s a complete shambles. People.. you owe it to yourself to not be pressured however subtle, to do anything to your body. If others want to, fine. But if they make you feel like a second rate citizen, you know where to stick that third finger. Look after yourself first, no one else.

    • Well said. The constant shaming, duress and outright threats to force people to get this vaccine in unconscionable, particularly as so many serious adverse effects are coming to light and there is no recourse if you do suffer an injury.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      I have sympathy for people who are cautious about the newness of the vaccine, or are for genuine reasons unable to take it.

      But not if you’re going to start talking about ivermectin and other drugs that have nothing to support them and are being pushed mostly by credibility-free quacks and conspiracy nuts.

      • Enough said. You must be talking about the same credibility-free quacks that have the guts to challenge the flock mentality, who risk widespread ridicule, who don’t stand to gain anything and don’t get sponsored by big pharma. That says it all about the arrogance that is out there in the wild among the populace. Experts everywhere. Bottom line is this everyone …. Trust yourself. Hear no noise.

        • Jumping jack flash

          ” Trust yourself. Hear no noise”

          Its all well and good to say that, and Scomo himself says that you need to make your own decisions about your health.

          Then with the other side of his mouth he says that if you’re not vaccinated you lose your freedoms. Even though it is fact that infections and transmissions will occur in fully vaccinated people.

          Considering that we know this, the only question that should be asked from now on is what is the acceptable number of active cases after reaching “fully vaccinated” status that will prevent lockdowns. Is it less than 6?

    • Unfortunately I know people very close genetically (think brothers, sisters) who have developed life long conditions in response to taking a vaccine (GBS). I am sympathetic to people who for any other reason are totally healthy but may react to the vaccine worse than the actual disease itself.

      Again this is why quarantine is extremely important. There will always be a section of the populace that the vaccines are more risky for. They may get away with one jab, maybe two. But relying on yearly boosters instead of other forms of defense may increase that risk substantially for this set of the population.

      • Jumping jack flash

        My father experienced 2 strokes after his first dose. The first a couple of weeks after and the second about a month or so after. I’m now shitscared, to coin the technical phrase. I have too much debt now to be incapacitated to work my highly technical job that requires careful and accurate thought. My father was a hobby theoretical physicist and now he can barely write.