UK the litmus test for ending lockdowns

Anyone hoping for an end to lockdowns should be watching the UK very closely over the next six weeks.

On Monday, ‘Freedom Day’ arrived in the UK whereby remaining COVID restrictions were ended. In particular:

  • face masks were no longer legally required;
  • work-from-home guidance ended;
  • social distancing rules were axed; and
  • limits were lifted on the number of people attending theatre performances or big events.

Wild scenes followed with residents flooding bars and night clubs across the nation (check out the photo below).

UK parties

UK parties after remaining COVID restrictions were lifted on Monday.

The UK Government took this step after achieving the world’s highest full vaccination rate, as shown below:

UK vaccination rate

53.2% of UK residents are fully vaccinated. 68.2% have received at least one vaccine dose.

53.2% of UK residents are fully vaccinated, whereas a further 15.0% have received one dose.

However, public health experts are concerned that UK COVID infections will surge, putting unbearable strain on the nation’s health system. 1200 scientists backed a letter to British medical journal The Lancet criticising the Johnson Government’s decision:

“I can’t think of any realistic good scenario to come out of this strategy, I’m afraid,” said Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at the University of Leicester. “I think it’s really a degree of how bad it’s going to be.”

Tang said nightclubs in particular are potent spreading grounds, because they increase close physical contact among a core customer base — people 18 to 25 — that hasn’t yet been fully vaccinated.

UK COVID infections had risen sharply in the weeks leading up to Freedom Day:

UK COVID cases

UK COVID cases approaching the prior peak.

However, the strain on the hospital system has so far been limited:

UK hospital admissions

UK hospital admissions remain low.

COVID death rates have also plummeted:

UK COVID fatalities

UK COVID fatalities remain low.

Thus, the next six weeks will be an important case study on whether it is safe to fully lift restrictions once a satisfactory percentage of the population is vaccinated.

If the UK experiences a sharp rise in hospitalisations and deaths, it will throw the COVID playbook out the window and could set back Australia’s own plans to reopen.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

      • 1200 scientists pen a letter. Wowee. Imagine that lot. 1200 scientists definitely wouldn’t think it was a good idea for me to drive to work every day because of the greater than zero chance I might die
        They definitely wouldn’t recommend i do my job.
        I couldn’t imagine they would be happy with me eating breakfast either as it may have trace elements of pea nuts.
        Give me a break boom. Life’s dangerous. People know the risks now. Let them out and if your still scared then under the mattress you go for the next three months.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Hey Col, you’ve got me completely wrong. I’ve always said let it rip. Anti vaxer. People always expect someone else to look after them, be it financial, health, or emotional. Now they expect a mask and jab in their blood to save them when all they really have to do is rustle up some motivation to get off their rs.

          • Human beings successfully evolved through being a social animal – some of us are just not that evolved.

            Selective bias is incredibly strong amongst those who display high levels of the Dunning Kruger syndrome, particularly and self evidently those who have a predilection for their own intelligence – grandiose narcissism – Twitter posts can be very revealing in this regard – Booming.

            Your position and belief system is fundamentally quite stupid.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            ^^ Nah, Boom is a legend but I must confess I have found that the stupid level of the comments section has gone through the roof since you and your extreme fears arrived!

          • I am also for letting it rip, the youth and children should not have to suffer to protect the old and fat.

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          It’s always about the health system. Govt knows more people will die to open up now many are vaxced. Public generally seem ready to accept the risks, although consensus seems like they’d like it a little more nuanced than full tilt opening.

          However, NHS already under strain. Staff burnout and insulting pay rise offers on top. Hospitalizations in England uo 21% in week. If hospitals overwhelmed again, lockdowns inevitable. And in hindsight it’ll be argued that a more nuanced approach to restrictions will be needed.

          Now look Sydney. More than 100 in hospital over just over 1000 recorded cases. One in ten(ish). Let it rip here, without good vaxx rates, and you have full scale calamity. And inevitable, endless lockdowns and curfews. Like the rest of the world. That is reality.

          • PalimpsestMEMBER

            FUD, it’s nice to see someone that can do basic maths, and apply a little thought. It’s sad to see yours is a vanishing art.

          • Alex Rondelson

            Hospitals were never overwhelmed. Nurses were making TikTok videos and ‘Nightingale’ overflow temporary hospital was never used.
            Its the flu, that we didn’t have a vaccine for, now we do. Lets move on.
            Influenza deaths are killing 10x more Britons right now than COVID.

        • We live in a society where we all pay for the health system – you would have every single medical facility, every bed, every doctor, every professional, every piece of equipment dedicated for years to dealing with Covid patients all because you don’t like having to put yourself out “slightly” – it really does STINK of the most extreme form of psychopathy and malignant narcissism.

          Most people are completely un-diagnosed in mild and even severe disorders, but to those familiar with even the most rudimentary aspects of something like the Hares Scale (or basic psychoanalytical traits) its stands out like dogs balls.

          • Managed to get up to Darwin (from Melbourne) prior to Vic being locked down for a short 1 week break. There were 4 of us travelling with both our partners pregnant, hot flushes etc. I sat on the aisle beside an older boomer couple, the other 3 in my group were across the row. My partner pulled down her mask to have a drink of water, the lady in the boomer couple looked over and then “Excuse me, do you think you are exempt from wearing your mask? I have had a kidney transplant and I am at risk”. My partner politely responded “I’m pregnant and I was having a drink of water”. The lady continued ranting about “everyone thinking they are an exception”, she then looked back and saw another guy with his mask down and yelled 2 rows back to abuse him. She then called over a flight attendant, ranted at him about masks, about her kidney and how she was vulnerable. She was politely told “Excuse me mam, I will take care of it”. The hostie then walked off knowing full well no one had done anything wrong. The 2 ladies behind me started speaking loudly saying “there is always one”. Her friend not tuned in said “what do you mean”. The response, “the lady in front is being a bitch, there is always one who thinks there special”. Oh the irony!

            My point in this story is that lots of people are panic merchants and expect the world to revolve around their needs. This lady may have had a kidney transplant and was at risk. But, had she done anything to protect her own health with a vaccine, choosing not to travel etc…of course not. She was on a shared flight, going to a place which didn’t require masks as soon as you got out of the airport yet wanted to act like the world police on everyone else.

            We are dealing with a virus and expecting perfection from society is foolhardy. To think life is fair and that everyone’s needs should be looked after is moronic to the extreme, its just not how the world operates. I am not an anti-vaxxer but I do agree with Boom in stating the the majority dont do enough to look after themselves. Eat well, exercise and try to be healthy in the day to day decisions. Natural immunity and genetics play a good part also, but that’s natural selection in operation.

          • Covid will become part of the background spectrum of colds and flues regardless of what people do as there is no chance of it being eradicated worldwide. Also the reason that health systems fail is because that then makes it easier for politicians to privatise them. Most of the failure is intentional.

        • ‘People know the risks now.’
          That’s the part you have wrong, people are stupid, risk management is unheard of for many.
          And so we have infected removalists heading around the country using the ‘I don’t know’ ‘i dont care’ or ‘I don’t speaka de english’ defense.
          It’s about limiting deaths and keeping the medical system functioning. When that’s able to be done it will open up.
          Stupid people don’t understand that.

  1. They are hoping that the school holidays starting now there will let them pretend they are coping for a little while but the outlook from Israel who vaccinated earliest is getting worse. They might have gotten away with it if Delta hadn’t developed but they are going ahead because the Tory backbench ( which is full of Craig Kelly types ) have rebelled and Boris doesn’t want to hand his commission back in any circumstances.

    https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500150491197445

    There are no free children’s ICU beds in England tonight ( admittedly some of this is due to RSV, but equally the RSV outbreak is tied up with the pandemic in several ways. )

    https://twitter.com/doctor_katie/status/1417893831459155970

  2. Tassie TomMEMBER

    Yes, I’m watching very closely.

    On the surface the UK is suffering approx 50,000 new infections and 50 deaths per day, giving them a mortality rate of 0.1%, compared with about 1% before the vaccinations. However, there are 3 factors that need to be considered:

    1) We all know that people don’t tend to die the day they catch Covid – they die a month or so later. One month ago the UK was suffering 10,000 new infections a day. Putting today’s mortality over one month ago’s infection rate would give a mortality rate of 0.5%, which is pretty ugly.

    2) How many people are really catching Covid? I’m sure it’s more than 50,000 per day – many mild infections would never be tested for or diagnosed. Is it 100,000 per day? Is it 300,000 per day? The more it is, the lower the mortality rate – it’s much easier to hide mild infections than to hide bodies.

    3) Following on from the previous point – how many people in the UK are left to become infected? How close to herd immunity are they? Officially almost 6 million Brits have had the infection – 10% of their population. But what’s the real number? Is it 20%? Is it 50%? And how many Brits are never going to catch the infection because because the vaccination has given them sufficient immunity? Clearly it’s not everybody who has been vaccinated, but is it half of them?

    Obviously at 50,000 new diagnoses per day they’re not approaching herd immunity yet, but if they stay the course of “freedom” they’ll get there eventually, one way or the other.

    I’m watching very closely, as is the whole world.

    • Pretty much all the evidence is pointing towards a health system crisis from long covid – PARTICULARLY in asymptomatic youth.

      That is terrifying.

      Letting it rip may well be worse on the health system than having people dying.

      • If anyone actually designed this thing in a lab they designed it to target the Western excesses and associated lifestyle issues of coronary disease, obesity, respiratory and diabetes.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Given the outbreak is raging in India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia, maybe it wasn’t targeted any particular where and just walked out the front door due to poor Health & Safety protocols.

          • Or has been proven a thousand times since its a Covid strain its jumped species – we literally have seen it for decades before the current strain – but no. This time it was manufactured.

            Its like claiming

            “yeah we have dogs – but Chihuahua’s are just so perfectly cute it must have been made in a lab”

            to those who understand it – it is literally like listening to a retarded person.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            True David, we won’t ever know if it jumped species or jumped out the door.

            And, it’s not retarded to think it walked out the door. It’s well within the realm of mathematical possibility.

          • David Blane, there is zero evidence of zoonotic origins, do you not think that China would have published any evidence they found in order to prove it was not the lab, however on the other side we have … a lab doing gain of function experiments where they were enhancing bat coronavirus to infect humanised mice, and Peter Daszak’s interview where he boasts about the success and how easy it is to manipulate the spike protein to do so.

            So you think that a bat corona virus that infected humans did not come from the lab doing research enhancing bat corona viruses to infect humans ….. but from “unknown link” in a wet market …. I have a bridge to sell you if that is really your view

          • Large, you have this rrse about face. All else being equal we assume Zoonotic origin. There is nothing to presuppose it wasn’t. Just looking at its evolution in the past 18 months show it wasn’t highly adapted for human cells. Delta has twice the infectivity and 2-3 increase in severity of symptoms over the original wuhan covid strain. If it had spent 4 years in petri dishes in human cells we wouldn’t see this evolutionary stage we’d see a measles type situation with a variant perfectly adapted with little to no meaningful genetic change occurring over time. Looking at the geography, demographics, and early spread only reinforces natural causes.

        • David cannot read. The 1st word in my sentence was “If”. My observation is that statistically CV-19 is targeting lifestyle diseases which are massively prevalent in Western countries.

          Knowing that vaccines will help but not cure us from CV-19 perhaps individuals should consider what changes they can make to their own lifestyle to reduce impacts when you inevitably catch a variant.

    • comearaMEMBER

      We do know 32% haven’t been vaccinated. Circa 20 million people. So that’s a big pot of people that are very likely exposed. This is obviously where this whole experiment blows up in the next few weeks.

        • Yeah, but let’s use Col as a single data point. Being old, cranky and intellectually superior clearly protects against the virus…so the kids just need to be like Col.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Humans are just a plague proportion of cockroaches destroying our planet that need to be culled. When a predator kills it improves the host species by eliminating the weakest . A man with a rifle does the opposite. A doc with a needle does the opposite.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            So… If you further your argument.. every treatable ailment should be ignored, we should disband hospitals/doctors/paramedics plus outlaw all lifesaving drugs plus bandaids and any other human invention to improve quality of life? Or you just don’t like vaccines?

            I mean I generally agree with you re:the human plague bit, and it’s true, all our little inventions have got us to the numbers we are at now, but I don’t see why we’d be stopping administering health care now.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Fud
            Have to concede don’t known where to draw the line but at this stage we are well and truly over where it could be.
            Trying to eliminate all diseases is like trying to stop economic winter. You may delay it but it will come. Eliminate all diseases and nature will make new ones.

      • About 10% have a long term symptom – possibly 40%.

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210407174321.htm
        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-23/long-term-effects-of-covid-study-in-medical-journal/13007498

        The thing about Covid is it really does expose peoples penchant for outright cognitive bias – right from the get go.

        It should be a good opportunity for many to assess just how affected they are by their own biases – from “its a winter illness” to “doesn’t affect as much in the dry” right through to “let it rip” and your position.

        The very best you could have said is “I don’t know” – but instead you made a completely unfounded declaration which is wrong based purely on what you want.

  3. Maybe deep down SFM is a genius… It’s not a race and in fact, perhaps there’s merit in letting others pioneer the vaccines, opening up and running head first into new & unknown variants.

    • I’ve tended to this line of thought for a while now, whereas others think he’s dumb/poor judgement/other label.

      He’s an astute political operative, with plenty of rat cunning.

      My view is he is watching what plays out in UK/etc, with the calculus being whether he can whether the storm politically, given:
      – the election doesn’t need to be called until May 2022 (fact check, but IIRC that is the latest), and there is a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then
      – Lots of Pfizer due
      – Lots of Moderna due, with second shipment configured for new variants – EOCY2021 and H12022 (he’ll be hoping for early Q12022 I guess)
      – Plus whatever happens with Novavax
      – Albanese is not considered a legitimate challenger – thinks he has him covered – and the Labor party won’t risk rolling Albanese

      Given all this, if UK goes t$ts up with Freedom Day and full vaccination rate @ ~55%, he can say, well look what happened to them, we’ve got more vaccine coming, when we’re at 80-90% (presumably he’ll listen to virologists/etc) we can open up.

      That will dovetail nicely with a full term election and a re-election.

      And if UK does not go t$ts up, well there is well-used path of blaming everyone else except himself. Which seems to be going just swimmingly really, judging by the polls.

      I could be wrong, and this is just some really lucky mismanagement.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        The incumbent always has the advantage of time on their side. The rot will set in if there is a further disruption in Jan/Feb in the leadup to the election. But you can already see the panic in sQomo with the way he’s heaping pressure on ATAGI to let youngn’s get AZ. He too appreciates he has an ever-closing window to get this right.

  4. Banana ManMEMBER

    Freedom day! Free to use your vax id wherever you want! The Aussie government already has thee 3rd booster shot as part of its entry form. This is not going to stop. It was sold to you as a zombie virus; seems like a lot of people have got it and survived. Maybe I should go to the cemetery each week to see if i need to be buried.
    The majority are building a digital panopticon and will dob on anyone that isn’t on board. It’s such a shame.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/chinese-gaming-company-midnight-patrol-using-facial-recognition-/100306444

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    whether it is safe to fully lift restrictions once a satisfactory percentage of the population is vaccinated

    Value laden, economist-speak gobbley gook with a side portion of wishful thinking.

    “…once 53% of the adult population has been fully vaccinated with a non-sterilizing vaccine…” is accurate.

    Nobody knows if it is “satisfactory”, yet.

    Current full vaccination rate of the entire UK population sits around 43%.

  6. Deaths aren’t staying low – they are rising fast.
    Two weeks ago the 7 day average of deaths per day in the UK was 20, a week ago it was 30, now its 49. Doubling roughly every 10 days, and the peak won’t come until 2-4 weeks after cases peak.

  7. Everyone is hoping vaccines are the “silver bullet” when in life there rarely is one. From the UK we shall see but part of me doubts it.

    That doesn’t mean we have to live in fear forever. Build dedicated quarantine facilities away from population centres, pay the people accordingly to work there (paying a nurse $500k is still cheaper than lockdown), and within Australia’s borders life can return to normal; and in some ways better than normal. Wage rises, less development, ease the pressure on the environment.

    We can have our cake and eat it too. Just build dedicated quarantine facilities. A simple, low tech, solution that lets the majority get on with their lives. Vaccines on top just makes it even more robust.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Thanks AK, its nice to know someone else is thinking along the same lines as me.
      The real nightmare scenario here is if herd immunity turns out to be a busted flush. AZ and pfizer are starting to shape up as vaccines that let 50% of the vaccinated population get COVID and pass it on.
      I’m starting to see a scenario come along where we need to maintain quarantine/distancing/lockdowns (or QDL) as a longer term bridging strategy until proper vaccines can be developed. Not these rush job vaccines we’ve got now
      Ultimately, QDL doesn’t stop international travel or the domestic ecomony, it just slows it down a bit

      • working class hamMEMBER

        Mark II or III vaccines are where it’s at. Any word on development? or is the capitalist model of ROI going to hold back further research until they get paid.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            They are different diseases though.
            And there’s that whole “necessity is the mother of invention” argument. Pull enough PhD’s off whatever they’re doing and onto mRNA vaccines, and you’ll probably make some progress.

          • Vaccines depend on amplifyign natural immunity that develops.
            Measles, chickenpox: childhood disease that we get natural immunity to, vax works good
            Flu: disease you get over and over, vax work bad.

            Covid: who knows.

      • Most people’s lives would barely change. And for the people who have relatives overseas (maybe 10% that need to do this reguarly) that’s what the quarantine facilities are for. I see lots of stories focusing on outlier families that need to travel to visit relatives, but the amount of people in this situation THAT also need to do it frequently is a very outlier group. Don’t see the need to risk everyone’s livelihoods and freedoms to allow that sort of travel with no restrictions (still could happen with risk controls).

      • Small details that could be fitted into the scheme somehow. Remote facility is the only place planes land – we shut down Sydney and Tullaramine. May seem drastic, but are those assets in “the new normal” a net benefit or net cost to their communities? Given this lockdown’s cost and the potential for any variants coming from not-so-vaccinated countries the cost/benefit ratio has definitely shifted. But you make a good point; aeroplanes are the initial “injection needle” of the virus into Australia and the main vector of COVID-19. For any remote quarantine to be effective aviation patterns need to change away from major cities and population centres – this isn’t entirely a negative either. People once passing quarantine can be ferried (bus) etc into transport to funnel them back where they need to go.

        Currently aviation, as evidenced by these lock downs, IMO doesn’t pass the cost/benefit test. To make it do so it needs to be controlled. Planes and aviation are the main vector for this virus – controlling aviation activity mitigates the risk of COVID and any variants substantially. Aviation staff by their very nature are the highest risk group (even more so than essential health personnel) and therefore need the strictest controls.

        • Do you have any understanding of how much freight would have to go into supporting a remote airport, it would just be yet another leak factor.

          • I don’t think it has to be another leak factor with the appropriate risk controls. A forum is probably not the place to discuss details of the scheme but controls, separation of duties around unloading of freight, etc it could be handled. We are seeing it with sea freight (which still is the majority) where the COVID is often picked up at the port directly and not let in.

            There are details to be understood and worked out I agree. But its easier and more feasible than trying to do it through hotels which has been the current system for the past year and a half.

            On a side note this is where I see vaccines as another risk control among others (isolation, flight crew separated from handling crew, etc). Its easier to vaccine a small group quickly than a whole country due to the problem of the commons when dealing with mutations that are typical of RNA viruses like COVID and the flu.

  8. With Bodger Johnson in charge, how could it be anything but an abject disaster? In any case nurses are on the verge of striking after being offered a measly pay rise, while Bodger’s tax haven mates run amok. Brexit is a mess and his claims about the Northern Ireland deal are now all coming to light and being shown up as less than factual. The European Union has lost patience with his blather and the Northern Ireland protocol is crumbling. The “United” Kingdom is on the verge of breaking up. Bodger is a farce and so is Freedom Day.
    “Freedom Day” is just a hollow Bodger marketing exercise, anyone with half a brain and a grain of self preservation is paying no attention to it. Bodger’s own chief adviser Dominic Cummings, has been more than willing to divulge Bodger’s approach to governing in the last few years, and its not flattering.
    LBC radio announcer James O Brien has no faith in Bodger and why would anyone? Have a listen, there’s a brief musical intro before O’Brien tears Bodger apart.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HE0cdoP3bQ

  9. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    All those slim, young and healthy people under 50 years old who can not (or don’t want to) get vaccinated should just organise large group/Reus style relations parties with 10% Covid infected individuals.
    Probably the best way for the country to reach heard immunity.
    https://youtu.be/KiJCe2INO9Y

  10. reusachtigeMEMBER

    To all the extremely panicked on here. Take note. YOU WILL eventually catch this. Maybe you’ll be vaxed or the variant by then less deadly so maybe the effects will be less on you. Or maybe you will die. Are you really mentally prepared enough for this challenge that lays ahead of you?

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Are you? Because it seems you push it but are not willing to accept it. Things also are not returning to normal at all and that means share markets and housing falling, and debt not being a good thing. I certainly am prepared for all that but not sure you are…

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      Some of you are thinking you won’t be vaccinated; some, that you can’t be vaccinated. They all say that until they’re in ICU.

      Listen.

      Thrust this needle into another man’s flesh, and they will applaud and love you for that.

      You? You may begin to love them — for that.

      Ultimately, we’re all dead men. Sadly, we can not choose how.

      But, we can decide how we meet that end in order that we are remembered as men.

    • ^This^

      The test has already been run in Missouri and other US states with low vaccination rates.

      https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-hospitalizations-southwest-missouri-surpass-winter-peak/story?id=78943575

      “In a distressing turn, hospitalizations for COVID-19 in southwestern Missouri have surpassed their winter peak, according to the local health department.

      On Tuesday, Greene County hospitals reported 259 patients who had been admitted for COVID, compared to a previous high of 237 COVID patients on Dec. 1, before vaccines were widely available.”

      Indonesia and India are other litmus tests that show delta would overwhelm the health system. That the UK believes that it is somehow different, as if the virus and the people there shall somehow interact in a way different to anywhere else on earth is plain stupidity, or irresponsibility, or both.

      • Elimination forever, constantly in fear of a new wave, constant restrictions and lockdowns.

        Sounds awesome, I can’t wait to spend the next 10 years like that until a variant gets out of hand and we have the collapse of the hospitals anyway.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Or the opposite could happen. There could be a super-infectious, poorly virulent strain that confers immunity and ironically saves us.

          • Anything that mutates this quickly is about as likely to have immunity as the common cold or flu.

          • Mostly because we have 100 ears of selection pressure on us.
            Smallpox wasn’t all that virulent for europeans when they arrived in the new world and wiped out the native populations with it.
            Give covid a couple of generations and we’ll probably be equally resistant.

  11. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    I guess what is worth thinking about is how to invest under the two scenarios:
    1. Freedom day works – back to normal
    2. It doesn’t work, lockdowns are back

    My take is Number 2 but I’m trying to figure out how to invest.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Well naturally the latter is going to play out, and knowing that a recovery is priced it, there will be a massive crash in the share market in the next 3 months, then they’ll go Brrrrrrr again and it will need to be significant which builds more inflation but at the same time supply chains are still screwed, more jobs gone, life not returning to “normal” and ppl get agrier. Not sure how this goes but it’s not positive.

  12. You are delusional if you think lockdowns will end even after vaccination. Haven’t you heard of the new normal or are you guys all deaf??? All predictions have been wrong here, what happened to elimination? I guess you’ll work it out eventually

  13. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Gotta say, that UK party scene brings a smile to my face. It’s a beautiful thing seeing those young people shake the shackles of fear and get on with what life is all about and that isn’t being chained down!

  14. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    There is nothing surer than this policy failing. They aren’t even wearing masks anymore!

    Simple maths again:

    Last year there were lockdowns in an unvaccinated popution in UK that resulted in 6.7% hospitalisation rate.

    This year they are ‘letting it rip’ in a largely vaccinated population that (early days) looks like a 1.7% hospitalisation rate. With over 100,000 infection per day that is 1700 ppl into hospital a day.

    That ain’t going to last long, and it will be worse in the USA. That’s without mentioning ‘Long Covid’ which is significant symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks. That all amounts to big issues in the healthcare system and workforce in general.
    I’m glad we are watching their approach to winter before we have ours next year……..

    Masks and lockdowns around for at least another 2 years.

  15. I Demand a Lockdown

    Of course numbers will spike there will be 1000 deaths per day in the middle of winter at this rate.

    Most of the people dying are fully vaccinated.

    There’s no need for lockdowns and restrictions just let people assess their own level of risk. If they keep coming down with a bad flu every time they spend Saturday night clubbing they’ll eventually stop clubbing, but there’s no reason I need to lock down and bring cases to zero so that the nightlife industry can stay viable.

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