UK COVID cases continue to crash after reopening

Just over a week ago, as UK COVID cases soared to 50,000 a day, an open letter in The Lancet medical journal from more than 1000 doctors labelled Britain’s ‘Freedom Day’ opening up a “dangerous and unethical experiment”.

As residents inundated nightclubs, pubs, bars and music festivals, experts warned that COVID cases could soar to more than 200,000 a day, resulting in a spike in hospitalisations and deaths.

Remarkably, the polar opposite has occurred. UK COVID cases have fallen for seven consecutive days, more than halving to only 23,511 as of Tuesday:

UK COVID cases

Crashing despite reopening.

Sure, hospitalisations are rising:

UK COVID hospitalisations

UK COVID hospitalisations rising, but low overall.

And so are COVID deaths:

UK COVID deaths

UK COVID deaths low.

But both remain way below prior peaks.

The reason for the UK’s success: the nation has the second highest vaccination rate in the world behind Canada:

UK covid vaccinations

UK has second highest COVID vaccination rate.

The lesson for Australia is obvious. If we get vaccination rates up above 50%, we too can kiss goodbye to lockdowns and get back our freedom.

Get the jab.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)


    • Death rate on previous out breaks was almost 2 months behind.

      Testing is down almost 10 %

      Hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise at exponential rate.

      Macrobusiness prop-agenda.

      • “Macrobusiness prop-agenda.”

        and Boris….and all LNP, Gladys, Hazzard and all those who want to extend and pretend that it’s safe to open up, nothing to see here….

        • Anders Andersen

          “The reason for the UK’s success: the nation has the second highest vaccination rate in the world behind Canada:”
          If the above was the case why did the Netherlands not have the same outcome with over 65% of their pop completely vaccinated resulting in them reinstating restrictions? I’m pretty certain the Drs concerned have an idea about the effect of vacc rates on disease infection rates and had good reason to urge caution.

          And the following is just laughable:

          “The lesson for Australia is obvious. If we get vaccination rates up above 50%, we too can kiss goodbye to lockdowns and get back our freedom.”

          • By Friday, adults of any age will be able to book an AstraZeneca vaccine at NSW Health clinics. That includes the the mass vaccination centre at Sydney Olympic Park, and about 450 pharmacies from next week. Do it…

            BTW – great Swedish name, the same of one of my best friends!

    • Yeah testing is way down from 1,270,000 from last peak to 810,000 now and dropping fast.
      Thats a 36% drop in tests in a bit over 3 weeks

      • At least it indicates that the test positivity rate hasn’t gone up. Cross fingers for them.

        I really think as a nation we need Gladys The Infector to eliminate, which buys us time to vaccinate in an orderly fashion, while watching how the experiment goes elsewhere.

        I 100% believe that vaccination is our way out of this. I’m also pretty convinced that the vaccines we have available now aren’t effective enough at stopping transmission to live with delta.

        • kannigetMEMBER

          Sure, but even with that the rate of hospitalisation and death is still following the trajectory of the last wave.

          • As I said – I don’t think the vaccines we have now stop transmission well enough. So even with big vaccination rates it can bounce around and spread if there aren’t restrictions. It does this until it finds someone unvaccinated or there is a “breakthrough” infection. Even if we get 80% of people, if the vaccinated people spread it to the 20% unvaccinated – that’s a lot of people in hospital or worse.

            And that’s another problem – with our leaders promising us vaccination will be the end of restrictions we’re going to have real issues. The CDC has just advised vaccinated people to wear masks and avoid crowded places. That’s not going to be popular.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      This is like calling the Titanic cruise a ‘great experience’ half way through. Terrible call UE and yes ppl should still get the jab but I’d advise to slow down on your call that it’s all over. Get some numbers that are more progressed like Israel and apply to UK.

  1. Clearly, tearing down restrictions and encouraging people to congregate at sporting events was the key to killing this thing.
    I have to admit that I expected the opposite.

    • Anders Andersen

      “Clearly, tearing down restrictions and encouraging people to congregate at sporting events was the key to killing this thing.”

      Can you explain that for me, please?

      • I was being a bit sarcastic to underline that the situation makes no sense atall, therefore there is something wrong about the picture that we have. So in line with other’s comments, let’s wait and see what unfolds in the next week or two.

  2. While the decline in the rate of infections is undoubtedly due to the vaccination rate, surely it’s too early for this to have made a difference, ‘Freedom Day’ having been only nine days ago.

    The doctors’ concerns are still valid as the effects of casting all caution to the wind will not be known for another week or two, and waiting until the population was 70-80% vaccinated would surely have been the more prudent course.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      Yeah. It’s difficult to imagine you’ll see anything related to this in the data for at least another week or so.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Earlier today:

    …the UK also saw the greatest day-on-day increase in death toll since 17 March, with a further 131 people dying within 28 days of testing positive. It brings the UK’s total to 129,303.

    154,000 UK citizens have had Covid noted as the cause of death on their death certificate.

    Rolling averages hide so much.

    • In a population the size of Australia, that would have been 40 – something deaths, a higher death toll than ever seen in Australia so far.

  4. “The lesson for Australia is obvious. If we get vaccination rates up above 50%, we too can kiss goodbye to lockdowns and get back our freedom.”

    While the advice ‘to get the jab’ is correct, the abc has crunched the numbers on both how hard and swift lockdowns are essential, and according to epidemiologist Professor Adrian Esterman, we’ll need to achieve at least 80% vaccination to achieve 60% protection, and this won’t happen until well into next year.

    “So if we say ‘look, once we have 80 per cent of the population fully vaccinated, we can stop lockdowns’ — it’s not 80 per cent.

    “It’s more like 60 percent, because the vaccines aren’t fully effective.

    “I think that we’ll have to have virtually everyone in the population fully vaccinated before we can really throw away the lockdown tool in our armoury.”

    • Technically true but practically irrelevant. 100% vaccination is wishful thinking. Once there is 1-2 months of unfettered access to 2 dose vaccinations then its time to come out of the bunker and move forward. There has been too much collective living lost with this madness.

  5. Cases are down but hospitalisations are up. Obvious question are tests down. I think they are. And the biggest issue is that it’s summer and everyone is on holidays and children are not at school.

  6. El MerenderoMEMBER

    Isn’t it a bit too early to draw conclusions, noting incubation periods? The vaccine reduces the severity, not the infectiousness, and the intent of vaccination is to bring down the number of deaths and hospitalisations. It’s not that because people are vaccinated then the cases necessarily go down…I cannot see a correlation there.

  7. Herd Immunity

    131 deaths yesterday it will be 500 per day once it gets cold. Why are we locking down if that’s what’s coming for us?

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      The Wednesday death number is always highest for UK – I think it is because it is the first number after the weekend (i.e. it a UK Tuesday number, which in turn is Monday’s stats). The two days before (the weekend days) are nearly always much lower, so a good way of taking these numbers is adding them and getting an average. So it was 131 + 14 + 28 = 173 / 3 = 64.3, which is largely in line from the death numbers from the previous week.

      • Hermit Kingdom

        Quite concerning for summer. it will be at least 10x that in the middle of winter.

        • bzunicaMEMBER

          If the CFR continues to be like it is now, then you would need a 10x jump in cases to about 300,000 per day. Let’s say we don’t need that much and put it down to 200,000 per day, about 1.4 million a week. You’d be at herd immunity in 3 months!

          • Immunize or expose, these are the choices. UK has got what they feel is max immunisation now they are exposing which will mean the rest of the populace will either be naturally immune or develop a level of immunity through exposure. Also worth noting that natural immunity appears to last longer than immunisation immunity.

          • kannigetMEMBER

            Everythign I have read about the Vaccine is that it reduces the chances of getting it ( Not Immunity ) but its main benefit is that it reduces the impact when you do. So that would indicate natural immunity would be better…. as the Vaccine isnt about immunity unlike the Polio vaccine….

            And just like the common cold we are likely to see a new variant every few years that we are not immune to.

  8. Will deaths and hospitalizations hockey stick or plateau….what is Israel and US looking like?

  9. Just over a week ago, as UK COVID cases soared to 50,000 a day, an open letter in The Lancet medical journal from more than 1000 doctors labelled Britain’s ‘Freedom Day’ opening up a “dangerous and unethical experiment”

    It should be remembered that an experiment can still be dangerous and unethical even if the outcome of concern doesn’t come to pass – it’s still dangerous and unethical to encourage someone to play Russian roulette if they play and the chamber is empty.

    • Hermit Kingdom

      Lockdowns, forced vaccinations, vaccine passports are frightening experiments as well.

      You can hide at home if you don’t like people getting on with life.

  10. Haven’t viralogists etc said for delta we need 80-90? Probably inclined to believe them…

  11. This pandemic is not over by a long shot if heavily vaxxed countries like the UK are seeing high transmission rates with hospitalisations and deaths rising in the middle of summer.

    With viral transmission at those rates – and it’s probably much higher due to the school holidays and less testing – new infectious and potentially vaccine resistent variants could emerge.

  12. The four main principles in clinical ethics are: beneficence, nonmaleficence, autonomy and justice.

    Nonmaleficence being the most glaring in some peoples twisted ideological driven administration during the covid epidemic.

    BTW whilst were gas bagging and all …

    Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD
    Been emphasizing the emerging picture of brain injury from COVID19 longCovid. Antivaccine forces keep pointing to low death rates in young people and adolescents, while ignoring the rapidly accelerating hospitalizations and now neurological complications

    • So that Tweet relates to a case study of 6 patients. Only 3 of whom had COVID. 2 of the 3 were intubated at the time and in ICU.
      It is amazing we are now at the stage of extrapolating case reports that number on less than one hand to some sort of societal apocalypse.
      There is a mountain of suffering going on at the moment only some of it caused by COVID infection.

      • Please don’t let whatever personal ideology you are afflicted with interfere with anything that discounts its prophecy. You might have a care and be better informed[tm] about much more broader studies pre and post covid that support the links findings.

        • bzunicaMEMBER

          Andrew is right though. You don’t make statements of fact based off a study with n=6. This study is done to see if there might be something worth investigating properly.

          • As I said this is not just a one out and the Dr in Texas plus others is corroborating in this early data collection.

        • Deal with the entire back drop and stop having tripwires to specific papers because it screws with your lots ideological agendas …

  13. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    You are going a bit early here mate. Wait 2 weeks, and as the weather gets even worse. Expect 100K-200K cases per day and a hospitalisatiuon rate of approx. 1.7%. Hold the mission accomplished banner folded for a bit longer.

    • Anders Andersen

      Skip, was that link meant to open up on the “IM Doc” post? If so I’d say his political bias underwear is showing. I’d be willing to say he’s an outright liar.

        • Anders Andersen

          “I am pretty much telling all my patients right now on every visit – It is clear that these vaccines offer you no immunity from getting COVID. It is literally a flip of the coin. They do seem to at this point make the symptoms less. That is all I am willing to tell them – because I am now reporting truths that I am seeing with my own eyes. Long ago I realized that telling even white lies to patients is never a good strategy. So I do not”

          Well, it isn’t what all the experts say and it doesn’t replicate what’s been reported (edit) and it’s hard to accept that his experience is just well outside the norm.


    Who died and why?
    Fresh CDC data of 4.9M hospitalized for Covid ( in USA) show obesity to be the biggest threat of death with an adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of 1.30 (30% higher chance of death)

    In 3rd place ( out of many comorbidities) was diabetes with an aRR of 1.26.

    Big surprise was 2d place; ‘anxiety and fear-related disorders’ reflected an aRR of 1.28.

    Is it the meds in play?; cause and effect? Clotting which often produces a feeling of doom?
    We (humankind) will be picking apart the data for years as all of the correlations will need time to present.
    Good 30 min flyover (Doc Chris Martenson)

  15. Stop the resumption of mass immigration. Don’t vaccinate until an opening date for the borders is announced.

  16. Even StevenMEMBER

    Leith is probably right, but like other commentators here, I’d like another couple of weeks before we get too definitive about whether 50% fully vaccinated is enough.

    The other thing to consider is that by some estimates up to 1 in 6 of the UK population contracted COVID (recorded plus unrecorded). In Australia we have virtually an unexposed population. A minor modifier.

    • Anders Andersen

      Why is Leith likely right? The Dutch were 2/3 fully vaccinated and had to reintroduce restrictions.

    • I’d be waiting a couple of months for the weather to turn as September can be quite mild and the days are still quite long.

      Anyone who has lived there knows that it always starts getting cold and miserable in October.

    • El MerenderoMEMBER

      I have never seen entire healthcare systems across the globe being completely overwhelmed beyond breaking point by pneumonia or air pollution.