The future: Widespread COVID infections, minimal deaths

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The United Kingdom and the Netherlands provide an interesting case study into what Australia’s future could look like once the majority of the population is fully vaccinated.

Both nations have already unwound most COVID-19 restrictions. Britain on Monday is scheduled to do away with all of its legal coronavirus restrictions in what is dubbed “Freedom Day”.

In the Netherlands, nightclubs have reopened and festivals have return with massive crowds congregating:

COVID crowds

Massive crowds in the Netherlands.

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As expected, COVID infections are surging in both nations, rapidly approaching prior peaks:

COVID infections

COVID infections surging.

However, because of both nations’ very high vaccination rates:

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Vaccination rates

Most residents in UK and Netherlands are vaccinated.

Hospital admissions related to COVID remain way down on prior peaks; albeit rising in the UK:

COVID hospital admissions

Hospital admissions low.

ICU admissions are lower:

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ICU admissions

COVID ICU admissions low.

And few people are now dying of COVID:

COVID deaths

Hardly anybody now dying of COVID.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially across the Netherlands. But for now it looks as if the link between COVID infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been well and truly broken.

Here’s how Australia’s vaccination rates are travelling against those nations:

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Australia's vaccination rate

Australia’s vaccination rate low.

Hopefully by the end of the year, once Australia has caught up, we too can stop locking down.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.