MB Fund Podcast: Beware the Growth Scare

In today’s investment webinar MB Fund’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Head of Advice Tim Fuller and Financial Advisor Mark Monteiro sit down to discuss why you should beware the growth scare!

On the agenda:

  • This is a risk scenario, not a base case
  • China
  • US
  • Offsets
  • Assets
View the presentation slides

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Tim Fuller is Head of Advice at the MacroBusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

 

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Tim Fuller

Comments

  1. Lots being said about the need for “full lockdown” but often zero commentary about exactly what that means.

    I’m no expert on the subject but ABC’s 7:30 did a small segment on it with Laura the other day. They suggested that NSW was now little different to VIC, even harsher in multiple instances? She then hit up the epidemiologist who suggested tougher measures as to what exactly they were and he babbled on about nothing…. no answer.

    Can hardly accuse the ABC + Laura Tingle of being a Gladys apologist so what’s the answer then? Put aside the speed to which harsh restrictions where put in place (that is now a moot point for which blame will be appointed later). If the on paper the current restrictions and no different than VIC, if the mobility data suggests the same…. then carrying on about harsher restrictions is not a solution…. it’s an uninformed rant.

    Who are the people
    What are the exact circumstances of the “people in the community” transmissions
    how many are asymptomatic and carrying out actual essential work? (vs dip shits)
    given the size of the infection spread and the fact it’s delta, is it even possible to get the cases down without literally closing everything?

    None of that data appears readily available.

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      The data coming out of NSW is really shady.

      Look at how many people got infected by the 3 bogan furniture movers who came over the border from NSW to Vic – and how quickly those numbers climbed.

      Yet the NSW numbers with its crappy mockdown, consistently stayed between 120 -170 for weeks?

      I find it hard to believe that Delta Covid roamed all over NSW and the numbers are still this low. It feels like they are being fudged to me.

      • I definitely, agree with you, something seems off in the reporting, it doesn’t quite make sense.

        Though it could just be that some people in NSW who are infected are just arent getting tested? I mean obviously, the testing numbers are high on the official figures, but could it be the case the right people not coming forward to be tested?

        How many people at those protests over the weekend would have had Delta, and just won’t ever get tested. Maybe enough to consider 10-20% of all the protestors out and about infected now and never appearing in the numbers?

        • BubbleyMEMBER

          Agree
          Trump said “If we don’t test for the virus, we don’t have the virus.” Maybe its that sort of weird logic?

          The protestors will take 5-7 days to show up in the stats (if they get tested) so they should start to show up this weekend.

          It will be interesting to see how many admit to being at the protest, as they might be worried about getting fined if they are positive and were at the super spreading event.

      • I think theres two things you need to keep in mind, maybe 3. First: 20% of cases create 80% of the spread. Second: Melbourne quarantined 3 rings around everyone so they identified asymptomatic cases as well as symptomatic.

        Third: Melbourne grew 110 cases or more in a week. Maybe there are environmental considerations like temp/humidity/bluer blood.

        Regardless at this stage they’ll only be picking up symptomatic cases so up the figures accordingly.

  2. I Demand a Lockdown

    It looks inevitable to me that the UK will be in lockdown again or under heavy restrictions by winter at the latest.

    I don’t think markets have priced this in at all a 20% correction wouldn’t surprise me when it dawns on everyone. It’s a little bit like late January 2020 right now. I think lockdowns become a reality each winter except in warm climates.

    I’m only about 50% deep at the moment having had an incredible run since March 2020, the market is 4400 not 2600, people sitting on a lot of profit it only takes something short of good news to have a correction in the broad market.

    It’s one thing having lockdowns when you have freedom day dangled in front of you, but people will be immensely discouraged when they realise that 4-6 months of each year will be lived under restrictions indefintely.

    • Mkts still climbing. Poo not sinking. Bitcoin exploding. bnich’s view still looking accurate