The ferrous complex was strong on July 7, 2021 as spot firmed, paper lifted but then fell overnight and steel boomed:
A few more charts explain what is going on. CISA output for the last 10 days of June cratered:
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Although I am expecting this measure to fall away to next-to-no growth by year-end the suddenness of this downdraft is very likely associated with the CCP’s centurian party. We can’t have a fake celebration about the good the CCP has done without having a fake blue sky for the cameras now can we?
Mill steel inventories fell a little over the period as well so clearly we’ve just had a little party cycle in which mills around Beijing shut for a few weeks then reopened with a bit of restocking once the apparatchiks had fucked off.
So, we can probably expect firm prices in the very near term while that washes out. I still expect firm prices in general for a few more months as well, before a goodly accident in Sep/Oct.