Mortgage market signals unprecedented property boom

On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on new finance commitments, which showed booming growth in both owner-occupied and investor mortgages.

As shown in the next chart, owner-occupied mortgage commitments soared 70% in the year to April 2021, whereas investor mortgage commitments surged 63%:

Australian mortgage growth

Both owner-occupier and investor mortgages are booming.

As regular readers know, the growth in new mortgage commitments has historically been correlated very strongly with dwelling value growth. The reason is straightforward: the overwhelming majority of buyers borrow to purchase a home. Therefore, when mortgage demand rises, so does property prices.

Below are a series of charts tracking the annual growth of new mortgage commitments by value against annual dwelling value growth across the five main capital city markets.

Sydney:

Sydney’s trend mortgage commitments grew by 46% in the year to April 2021, which is above prior peaks. Not surprisingly, Sydney dwelling values are also growing strongly, rising by 9.3% over the May quarter:

Sydney mortgage commitments

Sydney mega boom!

Melbourne:

Melbourne’s trend mortgage commitments rose 48% in the year to April, which is way above prior peaks. Price growth was also strong at 5.5% over the May quarter:

Melbourne mortgage growth

Melbourne bouncing hard out of last year’s long lockdown.

Brisbane:

The growth in Brisbane mortgage commitments is running above the 2003 peak at 81%. Brisbane dwelling values are also booming, up 6.6% over the May quarter and 12.1% year-on-year:

Brisbane mortgage growth

Brisbane mega boom!

Perth:

Perth’s mortgage commitments are experiencing their biggest ever boom, up 106% in trend terms in the year to April. Dwelling values growth is less strong, however, at 3.8% over the May quarter and by 8.5% year-on-year:

Perth mortgage growth

Unprecedented mortgage boom, but dwelling values lagging.

Adelaide:

Adelaide’s mortgage demand is blowing the roof off, up 61% year-on-year in April in trend terms. Dwelling value growth is also strong at 5.4% over the May quarter and 11.8% year-on-year:

Adelaide mortgage growth

Adelaide’s mortgage demand has rocketed.

In short, there is a coast-to-coast boom in mortgage demand and property values, which are running at or above historical highs across every major market.

Once mortgage growth starts to fall, so will property price growth.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. It’s a once in a thousand year debt orgy, coming off decades of mindless zombie fomo bidding.

    Some advanced alien species is making a docco about it now, for their stupidest-life-forms-in-the Galaxy series.

    “Watch” says the solemn alien-attenborough, “as they all believe they’ll retire with trillions in the bank.”

    • Very many will. It’ll be up to us filthy tenant taxpayers (serfs) to make sure that they do. Those who have a go deserve to be showered with riches.

  2. Lord DudleyMEMBER

    Where is Australia on the global debt to GDP ratio leaderboard. Is it number one yet?

    I am absolutely convinced that all productive sectors of the Australian economy (aside from the ones that attract foreign investment such as mining and agriculture) will be sacrificed to the housing bonfire. Look for super to become available for buying housing. Everything that can be done to push up land costs (and thus increase the cost of doing almost everything else) will be done.

  3. MathiasMEMBER

    Sounds like ‘Good Cop , Bad Cop’.

    David brings the Bearish news and Leith goes for the Bulls.

    Its what it is, I suppose… but its all just reinforcement of a system that hates the young in Australia… and has for quite some time.

    MB is still the best news out there. Other then typical soap opera stuff, all other media just seems to be inventing stories to pretend to stay relevant. At least there’s truthe at MB.

    Terrible things might happen in Australia. Our economy could collapse and we might not have enough money to Fund our Precious Baby Boomers. Yeah, Terrible things might happen.

    You got to ask, How did we get here? coz its pretty damn obvious.

    I wont be losing sleep over it… and I wont be buying Property anytime soon.

    I was thinking the other day, that if it wasnt for SAP ( really my only reason ), then I wouldnt be getting out of bed to vote. I’ll just take the fine because I dont believe Australia has a democracy anymore. The ONLY reason I’d get out of bed to show up to a polling booth ( the illusion of democracy ) is to tick the SAP box. Other then that, I dont even believe Australia has a democracy anymore.

    The media is all just Boobs and Feel Good stories. In short, its just crap.

    • +1 As a country we’re like a spoilt air-head trust fund baby. Get given all the wealth in the world and squander it on stupid stuff while thinking we’re gods gift to the world.

    • Australia doesn’t hate the young, it hates the poor. The current situation is as hard for boomers who don’t own real estate as it is easy for the young princelings of the multi-propertied.

      The 17 year old daughter of my mate who owns 14 properties is doing very nicely, whilst my other 50 year old friends struggle to meet the demands of their recently acquired mortgages. Good luck paying off a 30 year mortgage with 20 years of working life left in the tank.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      Not for a while. They haven’t leveraged super into the housing market yet. All options are on the table, so this baby has a while to run yet! Once you realize there’s nothing they won’t feed to the housing monster, you realize that this ain’t over for a while.

      • MathiasMEMBER

        Yeah. We will see. You might be right, I dunno.

        I think we are engrossed in an Aging Population… and there’s so much Fake News going on to try and make us hide that fact, that its kind of obvious. I think Death changes peoples plans pretty damn quickly. Im thinking by 2028, you’ll have Boomers starting to die like flys. It wont be the worst its going to be but it’ll be the ramp up into the worst which I feel will be around 2038.

        So Im thinking we will play Musical Chairs and ‘ Which container is the money under today? ‘ as we swish things around, try to hide all the facts until the economy inevidably realises this is happening and it hits.

        I hope MB are right on this stuff about falling property. We need for it to be. However, if they are wrong, then I thinking the Aging Crisis going into its Death Phase will finish property off for us regardless.

        Then we get to spend the rest of our days p*ssing on Boomers coffins and reminding them just how much life they stole from us, and how much we hate them post death. Maybe smash the odd grave, burn the odd poetry book because Boomers dont deserve to be remembered in my book.

        Its like them faceless graves in Tasmania where the officers got stones and the convicts just got tossed into a hole. I consider Boomers to be the Faceless Generation whom I think inevidably, history will remember them for.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn4XEDu8U8w

        I know a Boomer who’s got 2 years left to live. Years of handyman work and his backs caved in. He was getting all deep and meaningful with me about, ” Whats going to happen to my family when Im gone? “. People think Im heartless but my only response was, ” Sometimes, kama is a b*tch. Sometimes, people deserve what they get. ”

        I see Boomers doing Poetry. ha ha. POETRY. They are the most rutheless, coldest pieces of sh*t I have seen in living memory. They lived there live screwing anyone and everything they ever came into contact with and upon the realisation of there death, are doing POETRY ha ha.

        Yeah, thats the thing about Death. You cant bully it. You cant Control it. You cant Buy It. You cant Lie to It and you cant Get Away with It. I love watching all these Boomers coming to terms with the fact they are going to die. I love watching how scared they are and how society goes through all the phases of denial. Each year seems to be a different phase of Denial. I cant wait for the Boomers to start crying on National TV and saying, ” Dont misunderstand us, we are really just great blokes… I dont know why the young hate us so much… cant you just love us in our death? ” ha ha… ” Nope. We hate you. Its done. “.

        Ever thought of sprouting some Poetry Lord Dudley? You strike me as a bit of a Poet? Maybe a bit of Shakespear perhaps?

        ” This bond doth give thee here no jot of blood; The words expressly are ‘a pound of flesh’ “.

          • MathiasMEMBER

            Im fine with my Kama. You ever thought you might need to grow some balls? I’ve never met you but my 2 cents.

        • Mathias you seem a little but more than resentful. This in the long term will hurt you the most. I find when I get this way I just ask what part I played in the circumstances for me to feel like this. I dont know what your beef with boomers is but its likely their effect on the environment or their part in the economy. I suspect your not as rich as you thought you would be by now and want to lash out at some group of people. This is a common thing for humans to do through out history.
          Best thing for you to do is go back through you own life,
          -did you not try hard enough at school
          -did you not commit yourself enough to work
          -did you not safe enough money when you had the chance
          -did you drink too much or take too many drugs.
          Maybe if you can truly self reflect on your own life then you want post that rubbish about being happy that other people are scared of dieing.

          • Find me someone who isn’t scared of dieing. This might be through ignoring the fact it’s inevitable or by having the courage to confront your own impermanence

          • MathiasMEMBER

            I dont see it as resentful. I see it as part of my job ;p

            Hating Boomers is now so like taking out the garbage. Its just part of my daily job. I dont lose sleep over it. I feel quite comfortable with my stance towards bringing back the balance.

            I wont knock a man for his views. I just dont agree with you.

            Lets see:
            -did you not try hard enough at school

            Ah… probably not but I cant say it depresses me or anything. Private Boys School Educated. I know how to protect myself.

            -did you not commit yourself enough to work

            I’ve worked for Qld Police, Banks ( Suncorp, CBA, ANZ, AGC ), and quite a number of places I cant remember off the top of my head. Half my wage was obsconded by Rent so no, I dont think thats it.

            -did you not safe enough money when you had the chance

            Well, there was Rent and Food. I wouldnt say saving money was a lack of intention, no.

            -did you drink too much or take too many drugs.

            Never taken drugs, ever. Never smoked because it wrecked my Martial Arts Training. However, I do like a Beer, although I dont drink excessively. I used to do the party thing when I was younger but now that Im older, one Beer to put me asleep occasionally is enough these days.

            No, I dont think any of those things are relevant but keep pretending the Victims are the Criminals and the Criminals are the Victims.

            So upon your reasoning, it wasnt the Boomers who drove the cost of living ( and housing ) to the moon. It was just the worthless young who dont work hard enough, are too soft and just arent pulling there weight.

            Thankyou Jordan Peterson but I dont agree with you.

            If you do wish to take the psychological route and play the, ” All things are a matter of personal responsibility card ” then thats fine. Well, guess what… I am taking responsibility by standing up for myself and telling Boomers what I think about them. Your idea of personal responsibility is complete BS. It lives on the premise that we are all soft and gooey, have no rights to speak our mind and taking it up the a$$ is our right of virtue.

            If this isnt taking responsibility, then what the hell is?

          • Boomers are going to be hit the hardest through 2022, they won’t know how to cope
            They are getting older and they are going to lose a very large part of their wealth
            The financial crisis ahead will be devastating for boomers
            They won’t recover from this

        • The Wizz of Ozz

          So the electro therapy did not work I hear mushrooms mdm lsd are the go for your affliction maleny and caboolture is thy medicine good luck

        • I just don’t think the internet is where you should be proudly parading your depression and psychological instability. It’d be OK if you weren’t praying for the horrible death of hundreds of thousands of people because they happen to belong to a demographic collective invented by marketers. Here’s a tip : Every time you whinge about how hard life is and how hard done by you are, it just broadcasts your own personal inadequacies and failings. You’ve lived your life at the intersection of the most safe and blessed place in the history of human existence. If a middle aged Australian such as yourself didn’t prosper during a 50 year golden boom of biblical proportions then you’ve got no one to blame but yourself. It’s not the boomer’s fault that you didn’t buy a property anyplace in Australia in the last 30 years so you can sit back and watch it go up in value. It’s not the booomer’s fault that you didn’t make your fortune during the once-in-a-millennium commodities boom during which any clown with a heartbeat could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year simply for turning up to work each day.

          Your life’s problems are yours to own, not the fault of some mythical horned and cloven hooved 75 year old grandparents. Grow up.

          • MathiasMEMBER

            > where you should be proudly parading your depression and psychological instability.

            But Im not depressed.

            >if you weren’t praying

            Oh man. Your one of those.

            > It’s not the booomer’s fault that you didn’t make your fortune during the once-in-a-millennium commodities boom during which any clown with a heartbeat could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year simply for turning up to work each day.

            Your one of those right wing idiots.

            Ok, so Im talking to a Religious Right Winger. Got it.

            The problem I have with your ideals is its a bit like whipping a dead animal and saying, ” Why wont the thing go up? Maybe if I whip it harder, it’ll be better for me. “. There was a Boom for a small portion of Australia while the rest of Australia suffered a GDP per Capita Recession.

            Then considering we’ve wiped wages with the huge migration we’ve just done. Wages to the floor while Landlords got to sit on there a$$ and whine about ‘Lifters and Leaners’ as they became the biggest Leaners of all.

            Not to mention that Inter-State Equality which in Australia, has practically seen two states, NSW / VIC eat most of Australias Capital into worthless and meaningless projects that do virtually nothing to enhance Australias Future. The entire country suffers while two states gorge on all the Tax Revenue.

            The only Boom we’ve had in Australia has been to the Absolute Corrupt while the vast majority of Australians got tossed aside.

            Who do you think the biggest psychologically instable people are who vote for this crap? Its the Boomers because these morons want to protect there pensions at any cost.

            All it takes is someone with half a brain who’s passed Grade 5 mathematics to look at a demographics chart to see there’s more at stake here then just beating up on a tiny bunch of Unemployed Australians ( while pretending to be clever for another Election Cycle. In 2018/19 the Pension was like $60 billion compared to Australias $7 billion in Unemployment benefits. Boomers have historically got 1/3rd of the entire Australian Budget. If you want to clean up Australias Welfare Bill then alright, why not? Lets cut the pension which has been the biggest source of Budget Revenue. Liberals wont? Why? Because they dont have the balls. Instead, they go after the tiny $7 billion of meaningless Unemployed Benefits because w*nkers like yourself get all hot and excited when someone raises an Australia Flag and says, ” burn the Unemployed “. Dont give me this ‘Lifters and Leaners’ bullsh*t because Corruption is Corruption, no matter how you slice and dice it. Will Liberals Cut the Pension? I doubt they’d have the balls.

            Despite all that is said and done, I sleep well at night… and surprisingly, Im quite fine with everything I do.

          • No, bloke. I’m a left leaning atheist. I actually share most political leanings with yourself but the self pitying dribble you post does my head in. I reckon I’m basically the same age as you but I followed the money and worked hard in blue collar industries and got my slice of the Australian bonanza whilst you sat with your thumb lodged in your date and whined about how hard it all is. You’ve been living in the greatest boom in human history where anyone could make their fortune whilst a few hundred kilometres away there’s Indonesian stuck in a true cycle of debilitating and inescapable poverty. It’s YOUR lack of balls which has held you back, bloke. Finger pointing ain’t taking you places. Sort your shit out. There’s still life changing money to be made and plenty of scope to exist in style if you stop wasting your mental energy on complaining and instead put a few seconds into solving your self inflicted bullsh1t.

            Oh wait….I just saw the bit about private school boys educated. That’s your problem right there. A sense of entitlement bred into you from day one and when it didn’t fall into your lap you lacked the wherewithal to make it happen.

    • You can add into that
      Rising inflation (cost of materials)
      Rising interest rates
      And throw in a global banking & derivatives crisis in H2

      The genuine issue is it’s going to be very hard to get credit in 2022

      Government bond yields might go to 0 in the crisis but home loan interest rates could blow out to anywhere btw 5 & 10%

      I actually think rapidly rising home loan interest rates will be the warning bell

      Think banks will be raising rates out of cycle from Sept, could be very aggressive rises too

        • Tom
          I haven’t been following the short end as much
          I just had a look it has risen 20 bp since last week
          At a guess, I think big players are now believing what I’ve said is that the long end 10 & 15 year yields are going to fall, there was no money to be made at 10 bp on the 3 year
          Rotation into the long end ?
          Think 10 year back towards 1% on short covering and lower fears of inflation
          Isn’t the 3 year the one the RBA had its foot on ?
          I’d be very careful at that short end

          So I’m not sure

          Interesting

          If anyone knows someone on a bond desk, I’d like to know

          The bond yield curve is going to flatten here…

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            So now is not the time to be listening to every woman and their dog urging you borrow up big and pile into a red hot property market.

            Give it a couple of months and you could be picking up a nice little bargain, instead of buying an expensive dump today at the peak of a property boom.

            If you had cash or shares to buy such bargain they may have fallen more than the bargain property

          • @boom
            If these long end yields keep falling, support at 1.50% on US 10 yr, the NASDAQ high growth tech is going to explode higher

      • Hex TexasMEMBER

        Well something needs to give, the market in sydney is unhinged with many many examples of 50% gains in just 1 year, after a 60% gain over the previous 10 years.

        At some point the under thirty five demographic is going to come to the unwelcome realisation that they will not be able to financially reconcile what has happened to their future, which has now been mortgaged to the hilt in every possible way, over the last 15 years.

        What they are going to inherit is an aging population, a failing energy grid, a trillion dollars of federal government debt, another half trillion plus in state debts, with future deficits as far as the eye can see continually adding to that debt.

        To pay for it they going to get less services, less infrastructure, higher taxes, depressed wage growth, and excessive immigration.

        To top it all off fewer and fewer will have the financial capacity to own their own home, unless the current trajectory changes dramatically.

        The sooner this boom ends the better, it is not sustainable, it does not add up.

        Guy Debelle’s performance at what i think was a recent senate estimates hearing touting the “wealth effect” was embarrassing,

        • Hex

          The landscape will be very different next year this is the price action that is very consistent with what happens at the very very top of any market

          Unfortunately this is all going to end very badly now for all of us

          The crisis around Sept to Nov this year, will scare the world and it’ll be a real wake up call

          It’s going to be so big and nothing even close to what we have ever experienced in history

          You just need to be mentally prepared

          The whole global banking and financial system is going to collapse ……in possibly weeks or a few months

          The RBA will be blamed

          CB have created a complete mess

          Just stand back and observe, don’t caught up in the Euphoria

          Greed, fear of missing out what ever it is

          • Hex TexasMEMBER

            I have recently been trying to figure out how your scenario would possibly play out.
            My current scenario is that if there were to be a massive correction, all the existing processes and systems will stay in place.
            That they can not create a new world financial system, all the world can do is keep operating with what they have got.
            Companies go bust, unemployment soars, central banks buy whatever they need to buy, and print whatever they need to print, interest rates rise.
            My biggest concern is that it will be all the irresponsible and indebted who will be rescued, and the responsible and debt free will get shafted.
            However if i am out of real estate and out of the markets, the question remains is cash safe , or will that be held hostage by the banks with bail in protections, with only the balance of anything within the government guarantee surviving.
            How do you think this will play out ?

        • Everything will get hit similar to GFC except maybe AAA government bonds – gov aren’t going to default

          Banks…. I don’t know, I’m not sure how they can even save them, there is no bounce back in property prices

          Cash in the bank, I’m not sure you’ll ever see it again, maybe reserve bank will have to inject cash to protect $250k but banks will never recover
          Country in negative equity
          Our superannuation system virtually wiped out

          They’ll print money that will in time create inflation and I’ll guess they’ll have to make a decision which companies to save
          I don’t think they will even know
          Decisions are going to be made on the run

          They’ve pushed everything so far…. that the damage will be mind blowing

          I think there will be a period you won’t be able to get credit

          The crists is only months away…. just worry about food and essentials.. … you just have to be careful and be aware how bad this is likely to be

          Indebted helped yes with mortgage freezes etc but it won’t save then

          Just make sure you have liquidity and essentials and we need to see day by day what happens

          We can guess as it plays out .. the rescue will be going on for months through Xmas time

          It’ll be make it up as they go

    • Ok! Thanks for that. I’d only skimmed the headline before my eyes just about rolled out of my head and I rapidly moved on. Still….that’s $4.7M for 550 square metres of sh1tty land.

      I went to Sydney over the weekend and took a wrong turn exiting the North Connex and had to drive around the Western outskirts of Sydney, somewhere I hadn’t seen for over 30 years. My, my …..what a resplendent sh1thole that place is. The whole time I was looking everywhere and thinking “That house is worth a million dollars!?!?!?”

      I’d not live there if you paid me $500K per year to do so. True story. It made South Hedland look like paradise. The traffic youd encounter every time you left your front door is enough to get you brushing up on your noose tying skills.

      • It sounds like the bidders were happy to share in the joke as well. Two of them were reported to have said that they wanted to “restore the period home”. Honestly, do they think we’re total idiots?
        I completely agree about parts of western Sydney being dumpy. I feel that this Badgerys Creek “aerotropolis” is going to be a total flop, no matter how much government money gets poured in. There will be zero interest from private companies to locate there.

      • Well I’m from South West Sydney, it’s not too bad, earning $140k a year easily pays off the mortgage, always considered moving closer to the rest of my family (Inner West) but can’t justify the $1.3m for a townhouse on 200sqm, compared to 500sqm on today.

        WFH also benefits, no more commute.

        Only downside is the cultural changes are leaning towards one demographic, and I find they don’t socialise or support local business, maybe cos they are trying to survive, but other than that we are happy.

        Where are you based, North Sydney?

        • I live in the Parramatta area, so I guess I am part of the “River City”. My comment was more about businesses rather than residential housing. The concept of the Aerotropolis in Western Sydney was devised in 2018, on the assumption that people would be commuting to the office 5 days per week, and would therefore want to live close to the job. If most people are WFH 2 or 3 days per week, it becomes harder to attract businesses into a brand new urban centre, unless the location has some particular features to recommend it.

      • I really didn’t think it’d be Sydney that really took us to the top…..interesting it’s the most expensive city that lead us up into the final run to the top

    • MathiasMEMBER

      Nothing says ‘We support Capitalism’ like Fairfax.

      If you didnt believe the conspiracies which said Murdoch was approached by the CIA in 1960s to push American / Capitalist Propaganda and to ensure we all dont turn Communist, you’d definitely be questioning Australias very suss history. I mean, Im not saying I know it to be true, but when you look at Australias History, there’s some pretty huge coincidences out there.

      Its almost like America and Fairfax wont accept any other Government but a Right Wing one.

      Sure, these are very sensitive times and China is a thing. Foreign Interference is a very serious threat to a Sovereign Nation but its nice to know ‘The Australian People’ and ‘Australias Democracy’ are have basically been put on hold.

      Who needs to be an Australian Sovereign State when America can tell us who our elections should be? If they dont like who we vote for, just send in the CIA.

      People Power is dying… and I have a serious problem with that. Australia needs to take its Country back.

  4. pfh007.comMEMBER

    I would be concerned except that we all know that APRA is ready and waiting with an inflatable MP-LOL baseball bat.

    APRA!
    APRA!
    APRA!
    APRA!
    APRA!

  5. The Wizz of Ozz

    Booms run 2 to 4 years on average every 14 years Apra can do what ever it wants but this bull run won’t stop or slow till late 2022

    • It’ll be well over by then
      You’ll see interest starting to rise from August around
      There’s another 3/4 months I’d say

      I think we are about to go vertical in everything

      The key is the USD…..if it breaks 89 DXY, the trap door is going to open up

  6. Dollar dollar dollar. What does it all mean? How many dollars next year compared to dollars today? Dollar dollar dollar.

    What is actually happening physically is that the shelter creation system is performing badly, as it has for decades. Shelter is becoming harder and harder to obtain, with price to rent or buy clearly indicating the physical reality.

    To fix it, society has to focus on how to create best shelter instead of focusing on how to create most dollar.

  7. I still think that even Sydeny inner suburb prices are entirely sustainable and affordable IF you’re already in the market. Let’s face it, interest rates are never going up materially. Therefore with 2 decent incomes, a bit of equity from a prior purchase and some money in the bank, there’s a ~1.5 million price floor under anything decent, i.e. free standing, 2+ bedrooms.

    On the other hand, if you’re not in the market – and remember, this market survived for years without much FHB action – then you’re proper fxkked.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Interest rates don’t matter.
      If they can restart CPI and then wage inflation 10% interest rates are a doddle.

      The New Economy is of course backwards in every way because banks run it, and banks necessarily see the world in a mirror.

      Whereas it used to be the case where too much CPI and wage inflation would mean interest rates would rise, it is the case now where CPI and wage inflation are set according to what the interest rates are. Interest rates rule all, because they can be controlled by the banks.

      The lower the interest rates, the lower CPI and wage inflation can be to ensure the debt growth is adequate to feed itself.

      We could happily have 10% interest rates but CPI would need to be “adjusted” to, I guess, something a bit higher to account for losses along the way. And the way they do that is with trillions of stimulus dollars [currently in the name of COVID].

  8. Jumping jack flash

    Go you good thing!
    Its amazing what just 40K of super will do per household.
    Next time it’ll need to be more of course, but 40K was a nice 5% deposit for a 750K property (including additional costs)

    No coincidence that 700/750K is the cutoff for a lot of things. There are no coincidences.
    Lower the rates, and hand everyone a deposit from their super. What did you think would happen?

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