China’s demographic doom arrives early

Demographics is destiny, they say. A young demographic bulge provides a strong tailwind for economic growth. An aging demographic bulge is an equally strong headwind. Alas for China it is increasingly the latter and more so than anybody previous thought:

  • China has shifted to a three-child policy.
  • COVID crushed its birth rate.
  • This has brought forward projections for a declining population.

There is not much China can do about it. The decline in the birth rate is structural as it develops. The three-child policy will impact for about a week. Goldman has more:

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