China’s demographic doom arrives early

Tuesday, 1 June 2021

Demographics is destiny, they say. A young demographic bulge provides a strong tailwind for economic growth. An aging demographic bulge is an equally strong headwind. Alas for China it is increasingly the latter and more so than anybody previous thought:

China has shifted to a three-child policy.
COVID crushed its birth rate.
This has brought forward projections for a declining population.

There is not much China can do about it. The decline in the birth rate is structural as it develops. The three-child policy will impact for about a week. Goldman has more:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.