China to “halve iron ore” use by 2030

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David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. MathiasMEMBER

    Why dont they like us? Oh… thats right… because they cant control us… hmm… Sounds very familiar lol.

    There’s a lot of it going around lately ha ha.

    Maybe its the Aussie in me but has Australia ever tried to turn this around and try to ‘Control China’ ?

    There is only one thing you do to a bully and thats bully them back.

    Maybe Australia needs to start ‘Controlling China’.

    Perhaps we could start shoving democracy under there nose, naming our terms for our relationship and watching all the little Chinese get all clucky and psycho over our ‘ Australian Words ‘.

    So what if there’s 1.5 billion of em? Who cares. What are they gonna do? Fish us all to death?

    Australia reminds me of an insecure husband on his hands and knees, begging and asking for his wife to have sex with him. ” oh please please please please… ”

    Its bloody pathetic.

    If they want to invade us, then lets get on with it. Bring it on. Was never much of a foreplay guy, myself.

    All talk, no action these Chinese. Lets get on with it.

    If house prices fall, I dont see the down side to any of this. Its good for me.

  2. Yeah Boom Times

    I thought they’d have far less need for imported steel if the doomsday stories are to believed.

    No doubt iron ore crashes at some point as it always does.

  3. I have no big issue with the idea that Chinese iron ore demand slumps over the next decade, but you’ve got to look at global iron ore supply, and we will see a pick-up in iron ore demand elsewhere, notably India and Indonesia. So, the drop in Chinese demand is likely to be cushioned, to some extent.

    Second problem with their argument; scrap has a marginal cost too. If steel demand drops, it’s going to make marginal scrap less attractive too, so you’ll see a cushioning effect there too.

    And most important of all, if Chinese steel demand drops, what matters is the iron ore cost curve… Pilbara won’t necessarily bear the brunt of a fall in Chinese demand because it’s located near the bottom of the cost curve, with Chinese iron at the top end.

    SO, a fall in demand will see a collapse in the Chinese iron ore business first.

    Nice one Global Times, another Sino-Own Goal.

    • I’m thinking Xi will be happy to wear the hanger costs of ore from other sources if it means he can stick us, the benefit will be to the likes of India. Also no mention of new sources like Simandou which will be pretty low on the cost curve, I believe, that is not mentioned

      • Your points and Zulu’s are fair, but the discussion was about volumes, not values and prices. China can subsidise its domestic production but that’s going to prove expensive at a time when their demographics are turning against them and I think their willingness to throw money around will be declining.

        A lot can happen in 9 years.

        Aussie isn’t called the lucky county for no reason. Let’s see…

  4. pfh007.comMEMBER

    India urbanisation rate is 34%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanisation_in_India

    As much as India loves shooting its economy in both feet every chance it gets, eventually they will get it right and India is a fairly short boat ride from the Pilbara.

    And then there are all those other countries still camping out.

    Even at $50 a ton we should still be able to continue to allocate capital to asset price speculation.

    • India average IQ 85
      China average IQ 105
      The best Indians are the Brahmin class, 4.3%, with average IQs of 105. Many of them now live and work in the West.

      Much of the infrastructure is still from the British colonial era.

      Furthermore, India is running out of water already, and China is already up in the Himalayas with control of the taps.

      India will just pick more fights with its neighbours, and that will keep its politicians and people occupied.

      https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

      Below about average IQ 90 and your potential for massive industrialization is low. You just don’t have the skilled people to do it, and the smartest people have probably already been brain drained out.

  5. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    tbh if even the boosterism of the global times is now saying [or rather endorsing] 2030 before major cuts then that’s pretty optimistic for Australia. Seems the ‘end’ was supposed to be hitting us around 2025 up to now. A lot can happen in nine years.

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