MB Fund Podcast: Will battery tech ice the petrol car? With Paul Martin

This week our attention turns to the growing electrification of our world. Nucleus Wealth’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller are joined by energy aficionado Paul Martin to help us determine if battery tech will ice the petrol car
You can read Paul’s articles here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-martin-195763b/

Timestamps:

  • 00:00 intro
  • 01:27 video starts
  • 04:40 Elon Musk’s quote
  • 19:45 price of renewables
  • 25:50 Government policy on climate
  • 28:56 Switching the whole grid to EV’s
  • 33:40 How low can battery costs go?
  • 39:58 Moving away from combustion engines
  • 44:30 Moving away from fossil fuels
  • 47:05 Natural gas
  • 54:33 Solid state batteries
  • 1:09:45 Tesla’s battery use
  • 1:12:40 Hydrogen

 

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Tim Fuller is Head of Advice at the MacroBusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

 

Tim Fuller

Comments

    • kannigetMEMBER

      The demand for EV’s will only go up now, those on the fence will be pushed over it and some of those who have opposed it vehemently will now soften their viewpoint a little… Most will just double down and try to blame EV’s for the shortage…

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          Interesting paper. The complexity of forecasting a moving technology is clear. The implication of much higher demand for lithium as vehicles move away from hybrid to full BEV is one that I thought worth mentioning. It is clear that adding a refining capability so we value added to our ‘dirt’ is an opportunity missed in the budget in the rush to send money to support old Carbon tech. The clever country strikes [out] again.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      Note that this isn’t happening in places like Colorado. Fuel price here hasn’t budged for over a week, no one is panic buying.

      Look at the states this is happening in… lots of dumb, fear driven, every-man-for-himself types in those areas. They’re causing shortages in places that aren’t even served by the pipeline in question.

  1. Absolutely Awesome Podcast.

    Anyone interested in this space and even if your not its a must watch.

  2. Excellent podcast, really valued this discussion. 10yrs on solar, 5 of them off gas, 18months into EV ownership and there’s absolutely no going back.

  3. Boom Times Surely Ahead

    Australians might not like them but in the rest of the developed world it’s all going electric. Everything about them is better.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      When you consider how well perceived electric bikes are I’ve always been a bit sceptical about Australians not wanting electric cars. Yeah sure, you’ll get the occassional 2GB listening idiot repeating talking points but there’s an awful lot out there who see the upside.

      Never judge a population’s character by their political leaders.

      • I’m now riding a Scott EMTB & it’s a pretty good help on the hills around here despite it’s power restrictions to meet legalities. I can only imagine what some of those home built jobbies on YT go like. Still not an MT09 🙁 but good for it’s intended purpose.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Well i think they’re great.

      And i own a caravan. Don’t know how they’d go towing one 800k to the middle of nowhere like my last trip was, but all the same, they have their purpose, and they can only improve.

        • EVs meet the needs of 99% of drivers.

          Now if you said “EVs meet the needs of 99% of commuters ” then perhaps original statement would bear some weight past the wishful thinking.

          • PalimpsestMEMBER

            Not quite sure what you mean by that. I drive SYD/CBR fairly regularly – about 320 km at highway speed (well I claim I don’t speed over that – ahem). If I stop for a coffee and toilet at Mittagong or Goulburn, and recarge at East village I’m back up to 80% before I nip upstairs for a coffee and get back to the car. If I do the whole distance without a stop, however, it takes about 45 minutes to recharge because I’ve got an older, slower charging car. Time to get some wine and supplies at the Grocer and supermarket. That gives me enough for several days driving around town. In my normal local commute and driving between multiple clients I recharge about once a week. The battery can get down to 30-40% by Friday. This morning it’s sitting at 68% thanks to some video conferencing instead of driving. Sometimes I have to pay – every two to three weeks I have to recharge overnight at home – about $7.

  4. Jumping jack flash

    Brace for the tax reaming on EVs.
    But i think they’re fantastic. Once they drop in price to about 30k for mid size count me in.
    I totally understand they’re trying to recover R&D costs at this stage so they will get cheaper eventually.

    EV plus solar plus home battery means total energy independence. The government knows this of course so expect heavy taxes to claw back lost fees and excise instead of subsidies.

    • Cynical snake

      The big expense above a ice car is the battery, and they are now established tech, along with electric motors and electronic controls for them.
      The rapid fall down the cost curve has ALREADY HAPPENED for EV’s.
      They aren’t getting a lot cheaper than they are now.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        If only there were electric vehicles less than 500kg that could for fill 90% of journeys…

      • VicDynoMEMBER

        Lithium powered car for the man that needs more energy density in his car….Powered with the latest 6Li2H+n power source! Should be test driven in Canberra first though.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Until you experience the torque of an eccentric car, then you’ll never go back.

  5. The biggest dupe in modern history is that from the lithium batt lobby conflating (successfully) that move away from fossil fuels can only be towards coal powered bEV’s.

    Betamax was excellent video recorder but it was short by an hour or so in recoding capacity to do what was required for wide adaptation.

  6. PalimpsestMEMBER

    The small battery capacities in commercial vans may be limiting their uptake in Australia (and the US). They might work in Europe, and it keeps the price down in a price sensitive segment, but they have to be plugged in every night. It also affects battery life. An EV that can be kept between 20% and 80% will give hundreds of thousands of kilometers. Regularly go outside that range and battery life is much shorter. A smaller battery makes that much harder to achieve while keeping a business running.

  7. Like BTC, will Elon continue to accept aluminium, Fe, Cobalt, Ni and Ag etc into his manufacturing facilities, considering all the fossil fuels that are consumed during their mining and extraction ? I’m stumped at the timing of his realisation that servers and data centres are mostly run off coal-powered electricity grids LOL

  8. EV’s are indeed a no-brainer, have been for many years, and they take many forms.

    My EV has served me well with 7 years of CO2-free commuting. It has a range of 45km, cost me under $2,000 to purchase brand new and happily sits on 40 to 45km/h.
    It has an annual registration fee of $0, costs me $0 in road tolls, in 7 years cost a total of $0 in parking fees and has been maintenance-free in 7 years other than changing out two $5 drive belts. Running costs have come in free also as I only charge it’s 12 amp-hour battery from my PV array, which take all of 3 hours to reach full charge.
    https://www.evolveskateboards.com.au/products/gtr-carbon-street

    Also worth mentioning, it is probably the most fun you can have on your feet.
    When it rains I simply get on the bicycle instead!

  9. MathiasMEMBER

    Sciences problem is Capitalism. Unless people can profit off it, they’ll destroy it.

    A major problem with Cars is ‘They Rust’. We spend our days at the panel beaters, having rust cut out of our vehicles, bogging it up because cars are constantly built to fail. They are designed so somebody else can make money which is where Capitalism fails. Unless someone can get paid a dividend from it and it doesnt compete against things other people make money from, they’ll attack it.

    Effectively, this means in order to make money, we live in a Disposable Society. Everythings built to break down and require maintenance because things that break down and maintenance is good for business.

    So if Cars rust, why arent we building them from ‘Rustless Stainless Steel’ so our cars never rust again?
    Stainless – A car that will never rust – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsmQD1xd0Ys

    Tesla’s looking into it. Its new ugly truck that they are making is built from stainless. Its essentially rust proof.

    The problem with a Society that only builds things for profit, is there are a lot of things which are never going to get built.

    Is our problem to build a better car or a better consumer?

    I guess if the world wasnt corrupt, we wouldnt need Governments.

  10. MathiasMEMBER

    Capitalism ( The Boomers ) are killing Science.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhND7Mvp3f4

    The Boomers just want us to pay rent all day… and pick fruit in boring mundane jobs, and be good little people to serve them.

    Life used to be fun once. Now everythings all about ‘Power’. Its all about ‘Who has the Power over another human being’, which fundamentally, is all Australia is now.

    I would say my primary career in Australia has been ‘Avoiding other people having power over me’. I dont have time to do anything else in Australia because thats been my primary and number one focus.

  11. MathiasMEMBER

    Judging from the comments on MB, I suspect Martin North and his fan base are saying, ” There is inflation… its just going into houses “.

    I dont watch Martin North. I dont like Martin or his Boomer Mob fan base. I havent watched him in months, nor do I ever desire to. Last time I saw him the guy looked frail and pale. Maybe he’s getting old. Maybe he might die soon? The only thing Australian Society would lose, would be one less Baby Boomer Mob trying to control all the power thats slowly slipping away.

    Im sure if it was important, I’d read about it on Macrobusiness. The fact I havent, clearly means its not important.

    The Boomers have a lot more to lose then anyone else. I suspect thats why that ‘Mob’ is so angry.

    As for inflation, eh… maybe… but over the long term, I still dont agree. I think Australia has an Aging Crisis. I also think Australia has the worst people based organisation I’ve seen. The idea that if we just blackmail people with house prices and people will eventually ‘figure it all out for themselves if they dont want to be homeless’ is ludicrous. Not only have we stifled business growth at a time when we need growth the most, but we have also destroyed the organisation of human capital at a time when we need it the most. The way you treat your people is really important ( especially during an Aging Crisis ). I think Australias done a really bad job. We’ve kicked the can, nothing more. The chickens will come home to roost, sooner or later.

    The thing with Bullying as a form of Powerplay, is you have to be careful with it. It might work initially but if your not careful, it has a tendency to come back at you. I think its only a matter of time before the people start Bullying back.

    https://gyazo.com/10ddad1c4192734ee7027dfb06355e4e

  12. Arthur Schopenhauer

    You can’t solve the carbon problem with 2 tonne electric vehicles.

    You can solve it with 300kg electric vehicles.

  13. MathiasMEMBER

    ‘CHINESE MISSILES WILL FLY’: Mouthpiece doubles down on Aussie threat ( Two can wolf whistle )
    https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/global-times-editor-warns-of-missile-attack-on-australian-soil/news-story/3aa7b87da0f1681d1bce9b99a8e4114e

    Its a sad reflection upon Australian Life that while this kind of stuff happens over the next 20 years, we are most likely going to be focusing on and preparing for this kind of technology ( war ). When the world blows itself to hell and sends us back to the dark ages, the Boomers turn Civil War and the young begin suiciding from a life they where never trained for, I suspect it’ll be those living the bush that’ll have the greatest chance of survival.

    Its hard to plan for any future with this kind of Global Threat, with this Liberal Government and this Boomer Aging Population running the show.

    If the Government was serious about this, then why arent we training and preparing our people? Why did we abolish guns in Australia and why is ‘Joining the Army for 6 year service’ the only way to learn bushcraft because Australia refuses to invest in preparing its own people for whats to come? Why did Liberals destroy Aussie Nationalism only to inject it into house prices?

    Australia is one great big giant blackmail… and I fear its only going to get worse over the next 20 years as Boomers start to die.

    The secret to living in Australia is to not allow yourself to be put in a position to be blackmailed… because enslaving you is what Australia wants.

  14. Here’s hoping NO. I’m happy with my petrol car & could give a flying F about climate change. I look after my own environment & nature that I commune with. Sick of change f&$kers changing stuff cos a 12 year old Norwegian girl whined on world stage that he wasn’t happy. Spent last 2 days chasing light globe for elderly relo house built in 70’s that has not been renovated. Chasing 18 globes that no one details so gonna have to get electrician & change fittings etc. What does average tradies carbon footprint look like??? Can’t wait to see the electric plug in RAM & series 5 or Nissan turbo charged electric patrol

  15. alwaysanonMEMBER

    I live in the inner city Sydney and don’t have off-street parking. Wonder if the inner west’ll get some of the street parking turned into charging stations? Or will fast chargers work like petrol stations today (you won’t need to charge at home)?