Large swathes of global economy still in lockdown

Goldman with the note:

  • Our global GS Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) – a combination of official restrictions and actual mobility data from 46 economies, weighted by PPP GDP –remained broadly unchanged in the last week of April as ELI tightening in the eAsia Pacific (ex-China) region was offset by ELI easing in other regions.
  • Using our estimated relationship between the GS ELI and real activity, we estimate an ELI-implied hit of ~4½% to the level of global GDP in the last week of April versus a peak 20% hit in mid-April last year.

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