Global Macro

Large swathes of global economy still in lockdown

David Llewellyn-Smith
Wednesday, 5 May 2021
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Goldman with the note:

  • Our global GS Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) – a combination of official restrictions and actual mobility data from 46 economies, weighted by PPP GDP –remained broadly unchanged in the last week of April as ELI tightening in the eAsia Pacific (ex-China) region was offset by ELI easing in other regions.
  • Using our estimated relationship between the GS ELI and real activity, we estimate an ELI-implied hit of ~4½% to the level of global GDP in the last week of April versus a peak 20% hit in mid-April last year.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.