As usual, Australian discussion around the political economy is more gawking than it is intelligence. One could never accuse the Rich List of being anything but the former. But this year, especially, its timing is ludicrous. The top two richest, and three of the top ten, are at imminent risk of immense wealth loss:
- Gina Rinehart $31.06bn
- Andrew Forrest $27.5bn
- Clive Palmer $13.01bn
These three iron ore magnates may top the list this year but all three about to see mighty crashes as China slows and iron ore craters. There are many charts I could show you but just one does the trick:
The only divergence in the relationship happened during the 2019 Vale accident which is now resolving.
That’s the cyclical problem. Then there’s the structural, with the CCP determined to end its reliance upon Australian iron ore once and for all via:
- African and Brazilian expansions.
- The rise of scrap.
- The wind-down of urbanisation.
Andrew Forrest has the right idea. He’s running around like a blue-arsed fly buying all kinds of renewable energy assets.
Gina should do the same.
So should Australia.
