Full employment impossible if mass immigration rebooted

David Plank, economist at ANZ Bank, tips that the RBA will issue a revised forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% – the so-called ‘full employment’ level – by June 2023.

This follows CBA’s view that the RBA would forecast unemployment to drop to 4.75% by mid-2023:

RBA unemployment forecasts

The RBA is tipped to revise down its unemployment forecast below 5%.

Both forecasts would be in the ballpark of Treasury‚Äôs recent claim that Australia’s unemployment rate needs to fall to between 4.5% to 5% in order to drive a meaningful lift in wages and inflation.

The biggest risk to these forecasts is the Morrison Government’s plan to reboot the mass immigration program via:

  • Abolishing labour market testing requirements;
  • Lowering costs and speeding up approval times for importing foreign workers;
  • Expanding the skilled occupation list to include almost any role;
  • Providing all ‘skilled’ visa holders with a clear pathway for transition to permanent residency; and
  • Granting ‘skilled’ visa holders priority access to flights and hotel quarantine ahead of stranded Australians.

The Australian Treasury’s Shaping a Nation¬†propaganda report explicitly acknowledged that the overwhelming majority of Australian jobs growth went to migrants between 2011 and 2016:

Recent migrants accounted for two-thirds (64.5 per cent) of the approximately 850,000 net jobs created in the past five years. For full-time employment, the impact is even more pronounced, with recent migrants accounting for 72.4 per cent of new jobs created.

Migrants stealing jobs

Migrants too most jobs between 2011 and 2016.

Professor Peter McDonald released similar findings:

The permanent and temporary skilled migration policies established by the Australian Government from 1995 played an important role in meeting that labour demand…

From July 2011 to July 2016, employment in Australia increased by 738,800. Immigrants accounted for 613,400 of the total increase…

If the pre-COVID level of migration was restored, an extra 200,000 workers would enter the Australian labour market every year. This would necessarily drive up unemployment and put downward pressure on wage growth (other things equal).

The RBA needs to reject the Morrison Government’s planned mass immigration reboot, which would work at cross-purposes to its ambitions to lower unemployment and lift wages and inflation.

Unconventional Economist


  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    You make out like this is a bad thing? There’s a lot of loosers in the remaining unemployed and business owners should not be forced to have to employ them when better and more compliant people without so many issues can be sourced at cheaper rates from overseas.

  2. bolstroodMEMBER

    Where are these 200,000 workers P/A going to come from ?
    Morrison and friends have p!ssed off the Chinese, and now the Indians think (quite rightly) that Australia is racist,
    Nepal has a raging Covid x 2 mutation epidemic
    We are burning the boats at a canter.

    • sps179MEMBER

      Look, even if the sherpas are temporarily inconvenienced, we will still find a way. The Sub Sahara beckons. There are eight billion punters out there, and after all you only need a beating pulse, to get into Australia Felix.

      Does Morrison can mass migration, and genuinely aim for that 4.5% unemployment? Or reboot mass migration, and simply lie about employment and unemployment? It’s not even close.

  3. MathiasMEMBER

    Yeah. Australia and the world are in a pretty bad way. We’ve already had 20 years of migration. We dont need anymore.


    It saddens me that Scott Morrison and Corruption has run Australia so far into the ground, that Australia is now the ‘helpless country’.

    Best we can do is just sit by and watch these horrendous atrocities while people die. At the very least we could of sent them some Vaccines or some Aid, but we’ve been run into the ground so badly that Australias now incapable of helping itself, let alone anyone else in the world.

    Australias not the country it used to be. We cant even help ourselves nowadays.

    People will probably die and Australia can no longer do anything except just look on.

    We shouldnt be accepting migrants. We should be sending Aid.

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