The ferrous complex was roughly stable on May 25, 2021. Spot firmed. Paper is stalled. Steel has not updated:
CISA output for mid-May fell sharply from record highs:
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Year on year growth in output is now at its lowest since early Feb:
Steel inventories are still abundant, up slightly year on year:
As a quick reminder, my thesis for the extreme levels of Chinese steel output growth is that stimulus and catch-up growth construction combined to create a demand “pig in the python” that will pass relatively quickly. As the demand bulge passes, we can expect output growth to diminish then disappear entirely by year-end. Ceterus paribus 2022 output will look more like 2019 on tightened policy settings.
There is no other demand source globally to offset this demand downdraft for iron ore.