Russian war on Ukraine iron ore upside risk?

With a new Biden administration barely cooling its heals in the White House, and distracted by domestic issues such as COVID, is Russia planning a little test of Biden’s strongly anti-Kremlin rhetoric in the near future? The UK Telegraph is musing on it:

  • Russia is massing as many as 25k heavily armed and mechanised troops on the Ukrainian border.
  • NATO is mulling Ukrainian membership.
  • Russian-separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine had held to 2015 peace terms until recently.
  • Talks have stalled. This could be sabre-rattling to get them moving.

Some thoughts:

  • Ukraine iron ore exports were 46mt last year which is significant.
  • During the Crimean conflict in 2014, export volumes were uninterrupted. It is likely the same would be the case this time around. Ukraine’s iron ore productive regions are not close to the Russian border:
  • That said, in the event of a conflict, the market would probably bid initially on a risk premium until things calmed down.

In better news, WA’s perfect Pilbara storm is heading further off the coast. The latest forecast tracking map is encouraging:

Where does it go from there one wonders?

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. Gordon Flashman

    If the Ukraine war turns hot in Europe, expect Taiwan to be hit.

    People act like war isn’t possible, but acted the same way before World War 1 and WW2. We’ve got flash-points all over the globe, any one of them igniting could ignite more.

    A scenario could be something like Israel and Iran’s luke warm war turning hot. Israel tries a solo strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, underestimates the response from Iran, Hezbollah and Syrian proxies and then drags the USA into the conflict. Russia then annexes the Donbas and Luhansk and maybe a bit more of Ukraine and China takes Taiwan.

    This is not an impossible scenario, Russia and China both have a history of acting when the timing is right.

    The world has entered a new multi polar phase and is destabilizing rapidly. We’re heading towards multiple regional wars and possibly a global conflict this decade. The Azerbaijan/Armenian conflict was the first of many in a new age of warfare.

    The Great Game continues…

    • We’ve already got enough warnings that conflict is likely: annexing of Crimea; silent invasion of Hong Kong; seizing the South China Sea; Taiwan preparing for war; countries putting nationalism well before patriotism and cooperation.

      Scares the living shit out of me.

      Question is, what can we do about it?

  2. These leaders waited till trump got ill legally voted out and now are running amoke with the WOKE administration that’s now in power, look at Myanmar, Taiwan, HK, etc all pushing the boundaries, testing to see what they can get away with while sleepy Joe bumbles on.

  3. Ronin8317MEMBER

    If NATO membership is granted to Ukraine, does that mean NATO troops will go to war with Russia to retake Crimea? In such a scenario, who is the warmonger?

    • If NATO membership is granted to a country torn by a conflict, it is to deepen the conflict. If it is the conflict that involves a power that is not yielding to shiffluckery then the membership will be granted.
      Nothing short of Yugoslavicised Russia will make the war stop.
      LOL, “annexed” Crimea

  4. There won’t be a war…..the 56th Guards Independent Air Assault Brigade is being transferred to Crimea as a long term measure………..this was announced a while ago……….it was down sized in the process

    Mr Biden’s neo-cons are using the occasion to try to halt NordStream 2 gas line with another Ukrainian attack on the Donbass…unless they actually attack Russian soil it will be much ado about nothing. It is all about putting pressure on Ms Merkel but looking at the size of German gas purchases lately it will have to be a spectacular show to make the Germans change after a hard winter.

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