NZ, Germany sing for Chinese supper

At the Boao Forum, Xi Jinping is having a field day:

  • The world must great global economic integration.
  • Multilateral institutions must be protected.
  • No one country should impose rules on any other.

Pretty ironic given China’s 14 anti-democractic conditions for trade with Australia. There will many, many more examples as the CCP imposes “Xi Jinping thought” worldwide.

New Zealand is already singing for its supper:

  • Jacinda Ardern is adamant that her criticism of the Five Eyes pushback against China is kowtowing.
  • She says criticism of China is best expressed elsewhere.
  • NZ should be collectively raising issues with other nations of shared values.

But there isn’t one, Jacinda.

Germany sounds like it is reading straight from the CCP script:

  • Multilateralism must be preserved.
  • Losing it is the world’s biggest threat.

Here’s why Germany is so weak-kneed:

  • Since the counter-sanctions over Xinjiang statements, Merkel has been in full retreat.
  • She is busy defending the mutual investment pact.

Bill Bishop has a much better idea of what’s happening here:

Can you construct a new world order using the structure of the existing world order? That increasingly seems to be Xi Jinping’s goal, couched amidst calls to “to safeguard the UN-centered international system, preserve the international order underpinned by international law”.

Xi’s speech today at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2021 certainly fits with that theme. Xi and his CCP clearly see massive opportunities from the carnage of the pandemic and the multiple strategic disasters of US domestic and foreign policy to change fundamentally the substance of the world order while keeping the edifice in place. And their odds of succeeding look higher than the foreign policy elite in America and its allies would like to admit.

Is there a “Minsky Moment” concept for geopolitics? It is starting to look like Xi and his team think there is, or are at least willing to gamble on one.

Yes, you can do it. If you let a totalitarian regime occupy the structures of the US liberal empire.

This is why, sadly, multilateralism may have to die to contain the CCP.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. At the National Press Club just now the Chinese Deputy Ambassador was asked in the last question what China’s aspirations were in Antarctica for the next 50 years. He quickly questioned Australia’s Antarctic rights.

    After Taiwan don’t be surprised if we hear that Chinese fishermen were the first visitors to Antarctica and that the land and oceans are historically a part of China with the odd relic produced for good measure.

    PS. Multilateralism needs to be embraced by Xi and acceptance by China of outcomes at multilateral forums such as the ICJ. Xi’s talk of multilateralism is just a smokescreen hiding unilateral action.

      • GPS and the great resource grab. We are headed down the same path as the Filipinos, losing our territorial rights quickly.

    • El MerenderoMEMBER

      You mean to say: “at the Jane Golley nuclear train wreck event”? The one about furthering the CCP narrative in a fully taxpayer funded public forum? The one where she countered all evidence about Xinjiang with a piece she has received which is “anonymous” yet “written by scholars” (???!?) and “runs against the dominant narrative” (incidentally backed by tons of hard evidence by multiple sources)? A piece probably written by Jerry the Xinjiang Cyclist Grey? The one where she offered Wang Xining the golden chance to spout more hyper nationalistic narrative and showcase and exacerbate divisions domestically, a win-win scenario for him that only someone as stupid as Golley could not envisage? The one where she has invited only the representative of a state highly and openly adversarial to Australia and that is doing its best to undermine our sovereignty and national interests? The one that she will be using times and again to say how she has been misunderstood and misquoted, and play for the nth time the victim card, the one that has set the foundations for all her career advancements? I could go on and on.

      https://twitter.com/donaldcclarke/status/1384723047190499329

      https://twitter.com/livcaisley/status/1384708331432865796

      https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1384722027425140740

        • El MerenderoMEMBER

          From The Australian:

          “Senator James Paterson, the Joint intelligence and security committee chairman, said he was astonished Professor Golley would endorse an unverified report over extensive evidence of grave human rights abuses against Chinese Uighurs.

          “It is concerning to see any academic publicly elevate an anonymous, unpublished article, which has not been peer-reviewed, above the years of scholarly evidence, investigative journalism and reports from reputable human rights organisations, which has exposed what is happening in Xinjiang,” he said.

          “It’s even worse that the head of one of our pre-eminent taxpayer-funded university centres should do so at the National Press Club. Taxpayers are entitled to expect much higher standards of academic rigour than that.”

          quite. It would be academically appalling to endorse such a document even if it was a piece about cheese on toast. Here the combo between the topic, the platform offered to a representative of an adversarial state to broadcast more propaganda pieces, the incompetence on display, the manipulation, makes this episode both extremely serious and shameful beyond belief.

          Note from the opening statement that this centre is funded by a large Cth endowment, i.e. Australian taxpayers’ money.

    • Why wouldn’t they try it?

      A lot of white Australians now believe white Australians don’t have a legitimate claim to their own country.

      So how could they legitimately claim Antarctica?

  2. VW don’t want to close their factory in Xinjiang.
    not hard to find reasons to hate VW.

  3. No wonder the Chinese and Russians were rubbing their hands together over the prospect of Brexit.

    Europe’s only reliable US proxy has gifted the Germans, with their long buried totalitarian impulses, the green light to rule Europe.

  4. New Zealand is a disgrace. Makes me ashamed to be a kiwi…

    Also, it really shows how utterly incompetent and uneducated the leadership in both business and government in NZ are. New Zealand’s exports are mostly natural resources which are ultimately supply constrained. They are sold on a global market at globally determined prices. China can hurt our companies in the very short term but they need our products and when they buy from our competitors, say the EU, they simply create trade displacement. So they can’t impact our supply and they can’t have much impact on our price. Then, we have a low share of trade in GDP and so their impact on our economy is microscopic…

    As usual, our leaders are idiots.

  5. John Key was worse. I hear that Xi actually had to undergo surgery to extract Key’s head from his ….

  6. China have the west and especially Australia over a barrel. No point fighting it. China make everything that we need and really the only country that can deliver it.

    They’re one step ahead of the west especially Australia, much more intelligent population.

    US is liberal? It’s a sick, twisted, oppressive, warped culture of mob rule. A cop has just been marched off to prison for life for an accidental death while arresting an uncooperative violent recidivist criminal off his face on drugs. Effectively a political prisoner for life now.

    To be a white straight male in the US or the west in general makes me somewhat nervous. I have to be very guarded about what I say and do, my life could be destroyed at any moment from a comment or action being misinterpreted.

    Just talking about Chauvin and Floyd has be done in hushed tones and only around people you can trust not to betray you.

      • I’m not sure how Xi and his totalitarian regime fit in with the tedious tribal tit for tat of US identity politics but he’s made a valiant effort.

    • turvilleMEMBER

      You talk with twisted and uninformed tongue. Australia is happy with its position vs China – China disrupt some trade but without realising that global trade is a balancing mechanism. The imbalance of any particular commodity is always taken up by a change in supply (volume) , resulting price action and or alternative of destination (buyer). Obviously, if the world moves in a coordinated manner (as it will over time) towards a more efficient and less pollutive way of delivering energy then all will benefit. It’s not that simple ..

  7. Jacinda Ardern is now the West’s woke weak link – New Zealand could be expelled from Five Eyes for prioritising trade with China over our security https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/21/jacinda-ardern-now-wests-woke-weak-link/

    …New Zealand Labour leader’s preference for cosying up to China’s communist rulers comes at a time when the consensus among the world’s leading democracies is that Beijing poses the greatest threat to their long-term well-being and prosperity… follows the alliance’s decision last year to expand its remit beyond its core role, dating back to its formation during the Second World War, of collecting and sharing intelligence. The network now also seeks to promote “shared values” on democracy and human rights… Wellington’s willingness to ally itself more closely with Beijing has also resulted in accusations that New Zealand is not fulfilling its obligations to protect smaller nations in the Pacific, which have been the target of Beijing’s expansionist designs in the region… Previously, Ms Ardern has declared her support for “the values of human rights, social justice, equality, democracy and the role of communities”.

    Just make two observations, yes Arden and Germany have made their choices. From Germany’s perspective, it fits the EU desire to be a large regional power (hence Russias acquiescence) and to be a direct competitor to the US.

    NZ’s position is totally untenable from any perspective. A lot (all?) of its exports are fully fungible, a lot of smaller nations rely on its protection, and it risks seriously hurting its reputation and exports elsewhere. Where is the net benefit? It has far more risks to the downside!

    I think it comes down to ideology, and the Lefts (hard Left) suspicion of Democracy, like National Socialism, they believe that an elite with humanist values would be better for society than the free market, which like Democracies, get it wrong from time to time but ultimately corrects. It comes down to Arden’s personal world view.

    Sometimes PMs matter. Australia under Morrison, for all the ranting and raving is a steady hand, took on Facebook, and closed the border despite ridiculous abuse from China. Arden is a very clever political animal, going into the well worn rut of NZ go it alone (e.g. no nuclear warships) which plays well domestically, the difference being, no one for 30% of exports (not the economy, far less) has forgone friends, values to support a potential horror that our parents and grandparents fought two world wars against!

    And I think part of it comes down to Biden, everyone, and I mean everyone thinks he is weak, horse trader and interim at best. He is the picture of US decline. No I don’t think a second term of Trump would have helped, but we need someone a lot better, or we are all in trouble inside of a decade.

    • turvilleMEMBER

      What utter nonsense and a very extrapolated load of “waffle”. Yes – Australia has a far bigger “risk” position in play BUT so far we have managed to keep delivering. What the fk re Trump vs Biden inside of a decade”. Whatever happens going forward ALL countries must have diversified trade relationships. Post the China “hit “on specific Australian exports we have managed to find alternative buyers for quite a large % of those “banned” products. In the interim, China continues to buy Iron Ore and LNG ad infinitum. Grain markets have been replaced as have a number of others (referred to as global rebalancing)
      Carry on and accept Chinese “reverse sanctions”- do not give in to the dictatorial CCP

  8. Xi’s rein will soon end.
    He has overstepped internally, condensed power and prestige in fewer and fewer hands.
    Watch for an increase in re-education facilities prior to internal turmoil.
    100’s of millions of working rural poor, who had followed the Xi regime for the sake of their kids advancement, only to be told that’s not going to happen in their lifetime.
    Or the modern urban elite’s, who understand that if the SHTF economically, it is they who Xi will throw to the rural peasants as a scapegoat.
    He plays up the big man abroad as he can’t back down, he knows he’s finished if he does.

  9. Lord DudleyMEMBER

    The Nazis destroyed Germany. They’re so ashamed of their past that they’re simply unable to stand up for themselves ever. See Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for exhibit A. Not only will it make Germany utterly dependant on Russia, it will give Russia more latitude to turn off the gas in Eastern Europe as a political tool.

    Looks like the Foundations of Geopolitics plan is coming along nicely. Under that plan, China gets Australia. Just a matter of time… Australia’s greedy population will sell their own kids if it means they can keep filling up the V8 land cruiser, and Australia’s dollar store politicians make Trump’s gang of grifters look expensive to bribe.

    • In that respect, Labour NZ has a lot of similarities to the political platitudes of the Left side of Labour in Oz ! I am utterly shocked that misogynist Gillard hasn’t said boo against what has happened in HK. And she is quite centralist. So is Rudd, for the most part… its funny to think that Labour at one stage in our history were quite Nationalistic and full on for the common working man. I wonder what Curtin would think with the current crop of woke warriors!

      And maybe you are right, maybe we will eventually take the knee? After Morrison, I don’t see any conviction leaders at all… is it inevitable? In ten years, China will be a far greater foe than it is now… I am not sure what to think?