The ferrous complex was strong last week as Chinese steel prices soared on the back of the steel output cuts. This is the paradox of central planning aimed at lowering input prices. Less steel means higher prices and any lower need for iron ore is more than offset by a stronger impulse to restock raw materials as margins widen. It is a form of arbitrage between underlying and apparent demand.
Anyways, spot was strong, paper was less so as futures contracts rolled forward and steel is at all-time records:
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TC Seroja hit near Geraldton on the weekend. The adjacent Carnarvon Basin is a small iron ore exports in the range of 11mt so there might be some tony reaction in markets but probably not.
Expect strong pricing for a few more weeks before southern Chinese rains whack the market in May.